Now, King's method of determining power rankings is predicated on who would win if two teams were to play a game in a hermetically-sealed football stadium on a neutral site. No fans, no edge for either team, just head-to-head, who's the better team?
It's an interesting way to look at it, provided his analysis supports his conclusions. Did it support it in today's power rankings?
Um, nope.
"1. New England. No team fixes the startlingly bad things as well as New England. And what sticks with me from last season is how porous the offensive line was against the Giants in the Super Bowl, and how poorly Richard Seymour played in the postseason."
It's impossible to have a problem with the Patriots being ranked #1. After all, they nearly went 19-0 in 2007! However, what, exactly, did the Patriots do this off-season to fix the porous offensive line?
"The Patriots' response to almost getting Brady killed in the Super Bowl -- basically, doing nothing on the offensive line in free-agency or the draft -- tells me Dante Scarnecchia, New England's offensive line guru since the Hannah years, will figure out a way to seal the cracks."
Good strategy. The guy who was couldn't fix the leaky offensive line, which sent THREE guys to the Pro Bowl, during the playoffs last year, will take care of that between now and September. No worries. Nothing further needed to happen to fix that.
Oh, and King fails to mention that the team lost Asante Samuel, Eugene Wilson and Randall Gay and replaced them with Fernando Bryant, Jason Webster and two rookies.
The second team on his list is Indianapolis, and King writes:
"Because we don't know what's going to happen in the Marvin Harrison case in Philadelphia -- and even if he makes a clean break of the shooting allegations before July, we don't know if he's going to be healthy enough to be a force again -- we'll leave him out of the fate of the Colts for now."
A future Hall of Fame wide receiver might not be there next year. Duly noted. Please continue...
"Jake Scott migrating to Tennessee is a loss, as was the defection of second tight end Ben Utecht to Cincinnati. But a guard's a guard and a backup tight end is replaceable. The Colts did re-sign guard Ryan Lilja and starting tight end Dallas Clark. Underrated rotational defensive end Josh Thomas also re-signed, so there wasn't a lot of Colts pillaging this offseason."
A guard is just a guard. Just ask Tim Ruskell, Mike Holmgren and Shaun Alexander. They'll tell you just how valuable a guard is. Blocking tight ends are easy enough to replace, too.
"Dwight Freeney should come back healthy from his Lisfranc injury; his presence in the postseason would have made a big difference in the loss to San Diego."
Lisfranc surgery is actually a big deal and could take away from Freeney's speed, which is what makes Freeney such a tremendous pass-rusher. But he'll make a complete recovery and will show no ill effects from a potentially career-ending injury.
"The bottom line with my top two teams is this: Bill Belichick and Tony Dungy are still there. Scott Pioli and Bill Polian are still there. Brady and Peyton Manning are still there. They went 31-5 last year. The opposition might be chipping away, but these are still the two best teams in football."
Yep. It's all about those six people.
"3. Jacksonville. "Why'd they let Marcus Stroud go?'' Jags fan Jonathan Papelbon asked me a couple of weeks ago."
If he's going to continue to drop names like that, King should invest a pair of steel-toed boots. Hey, those aren't my rules. Blame OSHA.
"The Jags had a good defense last year, allowing 19 points a game. If Harvey's a DeMarcus Ware-type presence as a rookie, which scouts think he can be, they could morph into a premier defense and be serious Super Bowl challengers in an impossible conference."
So as long as Derrick Harvey plays at a Pro Bowl level, which few rookie defensive ends ever do, the Jaguars could morph into a premier defense.
"4. Dallas. The Cowboys still need a receiver; the thought of Patrick Crayton playing crunch-time minutes in a playoff game has to be a nightmare to any Cowboy fan. But there's not much else they need to win the NFC.
I'm assuming Pacman Jones will be reinstated, though I have no inside information; and if he does play, he'll be a huge threat on the other side of Terence Newman. If he doesn't, rookie Mike Jenkins' development will have to progress faster than Wade Phillips would like. Otherwise, the Cowboys haven't changed much. Explosive offense with a power running game, pressure defense with what could be a much better secondary. That's how you win in the NFL."
Yes, aside from Marion Barber moving into a starting role (which he's never done), the Cowboys remain exactly the same as they were last year. Their wide receivers and secondary haven't been upgraded, Wade Phillips is still their coach, and, oh yeah, they still haven't won a playoff game in 13 years.Explosive offense with a power running game and pressure defense is how you win. Except in the playoffs, which is something the Cowboys haven't done in recent years.
"5. San Diego. I kept thinking: Why not put the Chargers over the Colts? They beat Indy at Indy in the playoffs and were the better team. The Colts aren't that much better on offense (only five touchdowns better, in fact, last year), and San Diego's free-agent losses (Michael Turner, Drayton Florence) were offset by the drafting of Antoine Cason and Jacob Hester. I think the key is this: I've got to see Philip Rivers perform at a high level consistently to think this is a Super Bowl winner, particularly in a conference as tough as the top-heavy AFC."
Stupid Chargers. All they do is beat those Indianapolis Colts, regardless of when or where the game is played.
King goes on to rank the New York Giants 6th, which is fair, seeing how they're the defending Super Bowl champions. You can't rank them too low, right?
What was King's rationale?
"Moving forward, the Giants will be fortunate if Michael Strahan plays. I think he'll retire because he always said he was playing for a ring, and now he's got it, and a cushy Fox job awaits. But the Giants will still be able to kill the passer if he does because Mathias Kiwanuka will be back healthy."
Mathias Kiwanuka, who missed the last half of 2007 and has 8.5 career sacks, will still allow the team to "kill the passer" if Michael Strahan and his 141.5 career sacks retires?
M'kay.
What about Eli Manning?
"The encouraging thing about Manning is that the day after the Super Bowl, he was already talking about the things he needed to do to get better. Smart, because he knows he has to be more consistent to be a top quarterback. This should be a maturing offensive team and a threatening team on D."
Funny, because I think Charlie Frye was saying the same thing after last season, too. As did Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, Tom Brady, etc....
I hope you've all fastened your seat-belts, because here comes the non-playoff teams from 2007 vaulting into the Top 10 of King's power rankings!
"7. Minnesota. I can hear you all out there saying, "Too soon." Well, here's my question: What year in recent NFL history hasn't a Green Bay (2007), New Orleans (2006), Chicago (2005) or Pittsburgh (2004) jumped from nowheresville to Super-Bowl contention?"
Excellent point, Mr. King. Teams have been coming from "nowheresville" to Super Bowl contender lately.
However, I wouldn't put the 2005 Chicago Bears in the "Super Bowl contender" category. They were a good team in a crappy division and were dismantled at home in their only post-season game. Pittsburgh (2004) , New Orleans (2006) and Green Bay (2007) were legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Care to guess why they were legitimate Super Bowl contenders?
Quality play from their quarterbacks. That's not something the Vikings can hang their horns on.
"8. Green Bay. This pick is predicated on two assumptions: That Aaron Rodgers is almost as good for 16 weeks as he was for one half in Dallas last November and that Ryan Grant's last eight weeks of 2007 are no mirage. If Rodgers can play and Grant can stay upright for 16 weeks, this is an 11-win team, or better."
This might be where King needed a refill on his latte.
Putting the Packers at 8th is based on one half of football by Aaron Rodgers (against a Cowboys team that was basically playing prevent defense at that point) and that Ryan Grant will continue to assault opposing run defenses without the benefit of their opponents having to respect Brett Favre's play-action ability.
It's a good thing Rodgers didn't have a good three quarters of football last year, otherwise King would've had to come up a new category to put this burgeoning juggernaut into.
"9. Cleveland. How can a draftless team improve? Because this team had its draft in free-agency. A couple of things worry me, as they should every Browns fan. Will Shaun Rogers be a player for half the season and an unproductive blob the other half? I don't know. And will Kellen Winslow hold out or do something Chad Johnson-ish to ruin the great karma of the NFL's new national TV darlings?"
So they didn't make the playoffs last year even though it was all but gift-wrapped for them, but things should get better now that they're expected to make the playoffs.
So they traded their top draft choices (not to mention their top cornerback), where the immediate impact players come from, for a back-up quarterback (Brady Quinn) and a pair of veteran defensive linemen, including a guy who could single-handedly bankrupt Papa John's pizza if he finds out about Thursday's 23-cent pizza promo.
What's the big deal?
10. Carolina. Surprise. Take your leap-of-faith pill and follow me. Jake Delhomme threw 35 balls with some velocity the other day at mini-camp, his first good throws in a team drill since he wrecked his elbow last year. Jonathan Stewart and his surgically repaired turf toe should be ready to pound defenses by Labor Day. Julius Peppers can't be as bad this year as he was last year. (This team had 23 sacks last year. Peppers should contend for two-thirds that number himself every year.)
Another non-playoff team from 2007 makes King's Top 10 list. And what's not to love?
Their quarterback, who is coming off reconstructive elbow surgery, threw 35 passes with velocity the other day and their under-performing defensive end, who wants a new contract, is switching sides on the defensive line.
"11. Philadelphia. The story's the same as ever in Reid-land: Donovan McNabb has to stay upright for 16 games for this team to have a chance to play deep into January. He's missed two, four and seven starts in the last three years. That's partly why the Eagles have fallen considerably short of their second Super Bowl appearance in the McNabb era.
Two assists for him this year. Lorenzo Booker's a better alter-ego to Brian Westbrook than Correll Buckhalter has been. And DeSean Jackson, even at 170 pounds soaking wet, should be a bit more of a stretch-the-defense third or fourth receiver than McNabb has had. If Jackson does nothing else, at least he'll spice up the blah return game (8.1 yards per punt return and 21.7 on kickoffs is no way to win ball games). Oh, and it would be nice if McNabb's tackles could block the Giants."
Donovan McNabb has to stay healthy, something he hasn't done in each of the last three seasons. But since they've added Lorenzo Booker and DeSean Jackson, let's rank the Eagles 11th.
Good thinking, Mr. King.
"13. Buffalo. I like Trent Edwards having a full season to play quarterback; I like Paul Posluszny returning to anchor a young defense; I like Marshawn Lynch older, stronger and wiser. I even like the ability and cockiness of first-round pick Leodis McKelvin to win a starting job by October ... and I'm tempted to like a 6-foot-7 receiver who caught 16 touchdown passes in that non-passing-hotbed of Indiana University last fall, second-round pick James Hardy. This is an interesting team. If the youth plays at a B level, the Bills could win 10 games."
I like what the Bills are doing, but they're going to need a meteoric leap on both sides of the ball to win 10 games in 2008. I know it doesn't seem like it, seeing how they won 7 games last year. But 4 of those 7 wins came against the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets, and we know how horrible those teams are, right?
"14. New York Jets."
Crap.
"If Eric Mangini learned one thing from all those years with Bill Belichick, it's pressure or perish. Pressure the quarterback well or go 4-12. And the Jets' pressure was pathetic last year. The guys who were supposed to rush the passer (Bryan Thomas, Shaun Ellis, Keyon Coleman and Victor Hobson) combined for 11 sacks.
This year the Jets should have three sacks a game, easy, with first-rounder Vernon Gholston and expensive free agent, Calvin Pace, coming from the edge and Kris Jenkins pushing the pile and drawing attention in the middle. ("I want to thank the Jets for getting that guy out of our division and out of my hair,'' Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden said last month.) One other thing, Jets brass: Give Kellen Clemens a chance to be the quarterback; don't put him through an eight-game trial. Don't you know what you have in Chad Pennington by now?"
Yep, adding a rookie outside linebacker (0 sacks in his career), a career underachiever (14 career sacks in 5 seasons, with 6.5 coming last year), and a defensive tackle (20.5 career sacks in 7 seasons, with 6.5 of those sacks coming in the last four seasons combined) should equate to the Jets getting 3 sacks per game.
That must be that "new math" I keep hearing about.
"15. Seattle. I'm one of the few people who actually liked their draft. I loved them taking the best blocking back in college football (WVU's Owen Schmitt), the best long-snapper in college football (Tyler Schmitt of San Diego State) and a tackle (Red Bryant) for their defensive-line rotation.
Seattle did addition by subtraction by totally re-doing its backfield, and though Julius Jones is not a top-10 back, he's a hard runner who won't take 15 seconds to pick a hole the way Shaun Alexander did last year.
Not sure how the Mike Holmgren swan-song will work; generally a guy who says he's retiring at season's end spends more time than he should thinking about golf in Scottsdale. We'll see how the Holmgren/Jim Mora dance works over the next eight months."
Let's see, Seattle has won four straight division titles, made the playoffs five straight years, and have advanced in the playoffs in each of the three years. They have a Hall of Fame head coach in his final season, a Pro Bowl quarterback in his prime and have completely revamped their biggest problems from a season ago.Sounds like a middle of the road team if I ever saw one.
I know, I know. Peter King isn't sure how the "Holmgren swan-song" will work, so that's why they're ranked so low. I guess King's crystal ball only applies to the number of sacks the Jets will have and assuming that the major off-season surgeries done on Dwight Freeney and Jake Delhomme will be fine.
But King thinks it's possible that Mike Holmgren, a notorious loafer, will be thinking about golf and riding his Harley instead of cementing his place in NFL history.
I'd go on, but I just don't have the strength.
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