Mac's Picks - Wild Card Weekend

After a dismal 120-131-5 record in the regular season, my 7-4 record in the post-season last year has prompted me to post some playoff predictions.

Wild Card Previews

Kansas City at Indianapolis

It’s no secret that the Indianapolis Colts can’t stop the run. They’re an undersized defense whose injuries to hard-hitting safety Bob Sanders and their defensive tackles have led to the Colts giving up a league-worst 173 yards rushing per game.

It’s also no secret that Herm Edwards rides Larry Johnson like he’s Secretariat and calls Johnson’s number more than a psychotic ex-girlfriend. After an NFL-record 416 carries in the regular season (a number Herm Edwards doesn’t seem concerned about), it’s safe to expect 30+ carries out of Johnson this week. Hell, Herm might give the ball to Johnson 40 times this week. After all, you “play to win the game”.

Who Will Win and Why?

Despite the obvious advantage the Chiefs will have running the football, I still like the Colts this week. If you haven’t noticed, the Indianapolis Colts have a pretty good offense and have spent much of 2006 beating quality teams despite their poor run defense. Kansas City is going to need long drives that result in touchdowns, not field goals, and that’s not something I think the Chiefs are going to do enough of to beat the Colts on the road.

Mac’s Pick: Colts, 34-30

NY Jets at New England

Don’t you wish there was a subplot to make this game interesting?

Oh, that’s right. New York Jets head coach Eric Mangini used to be on Bill Belichick’s staff in New England, and the two have exchanged some chilly post-game handshakes when the divisional rivals squared off during the regular season. (The two teams split the season series, with each team’s winning in the other’s home stadium)

There are appears to be a thaw in that relationship to accompany the spring-like temperatures in the Boston area lately. This week marked the first time that Mangini mentioned the name of his former employer, and Belichick surprisingly followed suit by referring to Eric Mangini by name in his mid-week press conference. Still, it’s doubtful that things will be as congenial on the field this Sunday.

Who Will Win and Why?

As great a job as Eric Mangini has done in turning the New York Jets around, beating the New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium in January is a daunting task for anyone. He may have known how the Patriots attacked their opponents in years past, but there’s always a trick up Belichick’s semi-sleeveless sweatshirt. New England gets Vince Wilfork and Ben Watson back this week, which gives both sides of the ball an enormous lift. The Patriots are at home, they’ve got Belichick and Brady, and quite frankly, that’s enough for me.

Mac’s Pick: Patriots, 28-13

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

The last time the Giants were in Lincoln Financial Field they erased a 17-point 4^th quarter deficit to force overtime in a game they’d eventually win. After a crushing loss to Seattle, the Giants went on a 5-game winning streak that put them at 6-2 at the midway point and were viewed as a team that could not only make the Super Bowl, but win it. (I wasn’t buying it, though)

By the time the Eagles and Giants renewed their rivalry, the Giants were 7-6 and fighting for their playoff lives. Philadelphia used a 22-point 4^th quarter effort led by back-up quarterback Jeff Garcia in a win over the Giants that would propel them to another NFC East crown.

Who Will Win and Why?

Remember the Giants team that won the NFC East last year even though they had no healthy linebackers and were forced to give Terrell Buckley significant time at cornerback? I’d take that Giants team over this one any day of the week.

This is playoff game #2 for Eli Manning, and if he plays anything like he did last year against Carolina, this is going to an ugly game for Giants fans to watch. No team in the NFC is playing better than the Philadelphia Eagles are right now and Jim Johnson could confuse Eli Manning in his sleep.

Mac’s Pick: Eagles 31, Giants 10

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks

The Cowboys defense has completely fallen apart since Greg Ellis was lost for the season. In the last month, the Cowboys are giving up an average of 33 points per game, and most of that is due to a secondary that has yielded 14 touchdown passes in that span.

Offensively, the Cowboys are becoming just as inconsistent. They’re not running the ball real well, despite having 1,000-yard rusher Julius Jones and Marion Barber (the 3^rd), who has 14 rushing touchdowns this season. They have a Pro Bowl QB (Tony Romo), a pair of 1,000-yard receivers (Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens) and a world-class tight end in Jason Witten. Still, the offense has been erratic. They’ve turned the ball over and they haven’t protected Tony Romo.

Not helping matters is the sense that Bill Parcells isn’t a happy Tuna these days. He was inconsolable after last week’s loss to the Lions, and the feeling in Big D is that whenever the Cowboys lose, Bill Parcells will walk away from Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys. He wasn’t on-board with the signing of Terrell Owens, and he’s resentful for having to deal with the distraction that a guy like Owens brings to the team.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks have problems of their own. They got to 9-7 with a win over the Buccaneers, but heading into the playoffs on a winning note came with a hefty price tag. Lost for the season in last week’s win were cornerbacks Kelly Herndon (broken left ankle) and Jimmy Williams (torn left ACL). Seattle was already playing without their top cornerback, Marcus Trufant (high ankle sprain), which means rookie Kelly Jennings and 3^rd year Jordan Babineaux (a converted safety) will start opposite Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn this week. The cornerback situation in Seattle was so dire, Seahawks defensive backs coach Teryl Austin was spotted working out transients in Pioneer Square on Tuesday. When none of those prospects panned out, Seattle signed former Cowboys cornerback Pete Hunter on Wednesday.

Who Will Win and Why?

Even though it’s not my “home”, I am a total homer. I make no bones about that. Still, this game is in Seattle, and the 12^th Man is not going to make life easy on a struggling quarterback making his 1^st NFL playoff start. Because of the injuries and inexperience in the Seahawks secondary, I expect Dallas to hit on a few plays and make things interesting. Ultimately, Seattle’s ability to run the ball will keep Romo & Co. on the sidelines, and Seattle has the weapons (Deion Branch, Darrell Jackson, DJ Hackett) to take advantage of a 100% healthy, but porous, Dallas secondary.

Mac’s Pick: Seahawks, 38-27