Saturday, January 13th, 2007
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
I'm just thinking out loud here, but why do the people of Baltimore still harbor resentment for the Colts moving to Indianapolis in 1982? Seems to me, that deal worked out pretty good for them. Baltimore has won a Super Bowl trophy since then, and if my understanding of NFL history is accurate, the city of Baltimore got their current team the same way Indianapolis got theirs.
Plus, it's not things are going swimmingly in Indianapolis. Last week, Manning won the 4th playoff game in his 9-year career. That's right, he's 4-6 all-time in the post-season, and nobody carries the "Can he win the big one" tag like Manning.
This week, the Colts are facing the sort of defense that could give them a lot more trouble than the Chiefs defense did a week ago. Baltimore is the #1 scoring defense in the league, and oh yeah, nobody gave up fewer yards in the NFL than the Ravens.
Who Will Win and Why?
It's January, i.e., "Peyton Manning's Least Favorite Month". I know that's a joke repeated by everyone this time of year, but Manning will always be associated with post-season failure until he either stops filming so many commercials or actually wins some tough playoffs games. Hey, I don't make the rules...
As for the game, I think this is a game that the Baltimore Ravens defense just dominates, which will lead to a week of the talking heads asking "Can Peyton Manning the big one?". The answer to that question may be "Yes", just not this week.
Mac's Pick: Baltimore 30, Indianapolis 21
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
What's more surprising? That the New Orleans Saints, who had a nomadic 3-13 season a year ago and are led by rookie head coach Sean Payton, finished the regular season with the league's #1 offense, or that the league's #2 offense was the Philadelphia Eagles, who played half the season without Donovan McNabb?
I'd say it's a toss up. While it is impressive that the Eagles managed to go 6-1 down the stretch and win the NFC East without their marquee player, I can't ignore what the Saints have done this year. Playing with a rookie head coach (Payton), a QB who was cast away by the Chargers after having shoulder surgery (Drew Brees), and a pair of rookies at the skill positions (Reggie Bush, Marques Colston), the Saints are still the story of 2006.
Who Will Win and Why?
If playoff experience was the determining factor in this game, the Eagles would win this game easily. Philadelphia has spent much of this decade in the playoffs, and only Matt Hasselbeck was more accomplished than Jeff Garcia in post-season play among NFC quarterbacks. New Orleans, on the other hand, doesn't exactly have a post-season history worth bragging about. This is their first trip since 2000, when Az-Zahir Hakim fumbled his way into the hearts of Saints fans.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, what happened earlier this decade has little bearing on this game. New Orleans will be playing in what will most assuredly be a rabid crowd, and I don't think the Eagles have the defense that can take away all the weapons the Saints have on offense. This game is going to be won by touchdowns, not field goals, and right now, if your team needs a touchdown, wouldn't you rather have Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Joe Horn and Deuce McAllister than Jeff Garcia and Brian Westbrook? I know I would.
Mac's Pick: New Orleans Saints 31, Philadelphia 27
Sunday, January 14th, 2007
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
When the Seahawks traveled to Chicago in October, they were still getting Deion Branch acclimated to the offense and were about to be without Shaun Alexander, who was going to miss a game for the 1st time in his NFL career. Not surprisingly, Chicago dominated the Seahawks offense, and a red-hot Rex Grossman torched the Seahawks as the Bears romped Seattle, 37-6. Well, things have changed since then, for both teams.
For Chicago, people are no longer eager to "crown their ass". Rex Grossman has gone from Golden Boy to God Awful, and their most disruptive defensive lineman, Tommie Harris, is on IR after pulling a hamstring.
In Seattle, the Bears exposed the Seahawks a bit, and that game back in October sent Seattle on a downward spiral that, in many ways, Seattle hasn't fully recovered from. Injuries have led to inconsistent play in all three areas of the game, and the Seahawks lack the swagger that their 2005 NFC Championship team had in abundance.
Who Will Win and Why?
Pressure. That's the keyword in this game. Who can bring it, and who can withstand it.
All the pressure is on the Chicago Bears this week. Seattle was a botched snap away from going home a week ago, and the Bears went 13-3 in the regular season, are the #1-seed in the conference, and twice this decade have squandered this exact same situation. Philadelphia came into Soldier Field in 2001 and beat the 13-3 Bears. The Carolina Panthers mirrored that feat a year ago. (It's also important to note that the Bears beat the Panthers earlier in the 2005 season)
Pressure is also on Rex Grossman, who is coming off a game where his QB rating was 0.0 and he publicly admitted that he wasn't prepared to play and wasn't focused because it was New Year's Eve. I'm sure that wasn't what his fans (or teammates) wanted to hear.
Seattle may not be the better team, and all the odds are stacked against them, but I think the Seahawks win.
Mac's Pick: Seattle 24, Chicago 19
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers
There was a minor brouhaha here in New England about the San Diego Chargers restricting ticket sales to people in the Southern California area. Uh, what do you expect? The Chargers don't want thousands of Patriots fans in the stands on Sunday afternoon, and since they're a private entity, and there are no rules prohibiting that practice, why wouldn't they do whatever they can to make sure Chargers fans are filling those seats?
San Diego is coming off its best season in franchise history. Despite players getting shot (Steve Foley), suspended (Shawne Merriman) and arrested, the Chargers rolled through the NFL like a hot knife through warm butter. They've won 10 games in a row, were very much in every game this season (both losses were by 3 points) and are widely acknowledged as the best team in the NFL.
So why is everyone nervous? Because the New England Patriots are coming town (how will they get by without all the Murphs and Sullys???), that's why. No teams are better prepared for the post-season than a Bill Belichick-coached team, and there simply is no quarterback better built for the post-season than Tom Brady.
Who Will Win and Why?
Even in a stadium full of San Diego Chargers fans, it's awfully hard to go against the New England Patriots. Sure, I did a year ago in this round of the playoffs, but that Patriots team wasn't as good as this one. New England is healthy, focused and has embraced the underdog, "Us against the world" mentality that can fuel them for a playoff run.
Mac's Pick: New England 27, San Diego 24
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