Mac's Picks - AFC/NFC Championship Weekend

So I missed a few last week. I didn't think Baltimore would lose to Indianapolis, and of course, I didn't really think the Bears would beat Seattle.

Oh well, it happens. I'm 6-2 so far in the playoffs, which is a major improvement over my dismal prognosticating display in the regular season.

NFC Championship Game

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

It's still a bit surreal that the New Orleans Saints are in the NFC Championship game. This was a team that was appeared destined for Baton Rouge, Los Angeles, San Antonio, or even Houston, who could probably use a football team these days.

Despite Hurricane Katrina, Tom Benson and going at it with a rookie head coach, a surgically-repaired quarterback and what was thought to be a horrendous defense, the Saints are 60 minutes away from playing in a Super Bowl. And I think they're going to get there.

New Orleans beat the Eagles by pounding them up the middle with Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush, who combined for nearly 200 yards on rushing. If they can control the clock and avoid yielding big plays to Rex Grossman, the Saints can, and will, win this game.

Mac's Pick: New Orleans 24, Chicago 20 (I'm nowhere near ready to see Rex Grossman in the Super Bowl)

AFC Championship Game

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts

Did you know that the Indianapolis Colts hang banners in the RCA Dome that say "AFC Finalists"? It's true. They're so desperate for validation, they hang up banners letting everyone know that they came within 60 minutes of a Super Bowl, but failed.

So Indianapolis gets another shot, and it's sort of fitting that the hurdle they'll have to climb comes in the form of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. New England has ended a few seasons for the Colts, and if they really want to have some fun with Manning, they should put Ellis Hobbs in Ty Law's old #24 jersey and watch the interceptions roll in.

As I attempt to pick this game, I'm not going to look at regular season stats or previous meetings in the post-season. All those playoff games were in Foxborough, and the Colts get to play this one in the dome. In the regular season, the Colts were by far the worst run defense in the NFL. The last two weeks, the run defense has kept two pretty good running backs from reaching the 60-yard mark.

My point: This isn't the same Colts team from recent years. I'm not saying they're not capable of reverting back to their old form, I just don't expect it to happen this week. New England didn't play very well last week, and narrowly avoided a loss to the Chargers a week ago. Yes, they won, but they got away from their gameplan far too early, Brady looked awful through 3 quarters, and if San Diego had someone better than Marty Schottenheimer on the sidelines, they probably would've won that game.

Mac's Pick: Indianapolis 27, New England 24