Thursday, August 31, 2006

Branch to Fire Chayut?

The Patriot Ledger's Eric McHugh is reporting that Deion Branch could end his impasse with the New England Patriots by firing his agent, Jason Chayut.

As of right now, Branch has every reason to seek a change in representation. As a 2nd round pick, Branch (with Chayut representing him) signed a 5-year contract. Normally, 2nd round picks sign 4-year deals. Chayut claims that the Patriots strong-armed him into agreeing to the 5th year on the deal.

This off-season, Branch wanted a "Reggie Wayne" type of contract extention (6-years, $39M including $13.5M in guaranteed money).
Branch does have a Super Bowl MVP award on his resume, but the sort of contract offer he was reportedly looking for isn't commensurate with his production. Branch has never finished in the Top 10 in any receiving category during his 4 years in New England, and without a Pro Bowl or 1,000 yard season on his resume, the notoriously frugal Patriots weren't about to pony up an 8-figure signing bonus.

Also hindering a contract extention was the pesky issue of Branch having one full season remaining on his rookie contract. Extending a player who's already contract is not something most NFL teams rush to do, and it's a practice the Patriots, in particular, don't make a habit of doing. The Patriots have recently extended the contracts of Tom Brady and Richard Seymour, despite a year remaining from their rookie deals. The difference is, Brady is a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer and Seymour is the best defensive lineman in the NFL. Branch isn't a Top 5 WR in his conference.

Still, the Patriots weren't unwilling to work with Branch, and new contract proposals were exchanged. Feeling as though the Patriots were slighting his client, Chayut went public with his dissatisfaction with the Patriots front office, which essentially guaranteed that he'd eventually be fired. If you want re-enact the "pick up the gun" scene from Shane, you don't do it with Scott Pioli and Bill Belichick.

As we approach the deadline the Patriots gave Branch and Chayut to seek a trade, it's obvious that Branch realizes that his agent didn't do him any favors over the past few months. His best bet is to fire Chayut (who really does deserve much of the blame for this), agree to come back into camp, and hope that his new agent and the team can agree to a contract similar to the one Chayut turned down earlier this off-season.

The Vinatieri Curse?

Word out of Indianapolis is that Adam Vinatieri has a broken bone in his left foot. The team reports it as being a ligament injury, and that the future Hall-of-Fame kicker is day-to-day. His mother isn't so sure, and calls it a "week-to-week" situation.

My first-hand knowledge of how the New Englanders mind tends to work tells me that if Vinatieri's injury lingers, there will be talk of Vinatieri being "cursed" for leaving New England for Indianapolis, their conference rival. Not a week goes by where a Patriots fan doesn't paint Vinatieri as a greedy player, who took more money despite his cult-hero status here in the Boston area.

That's nonsense. New England decided that it was too costly to place the franchise tag on Vinatieri, and allowed him to hit the open market. They had an interest in bringing him back, but despite nearly $20M in cap room, they weren't offering any guaranteed money. Indianapolis, who couldn't bring Mike Vanderjagt back without enciting a riot, quickly pounced and gave Vinatieri a contract that gave him the guaranteed money he'd been looking for.

The only thing that matters in an NFL contract is guaranteed money. Vinatieri got $3.5M in guaranteed money from Indianapolis. New England was offering about $3.499999M less than that.

It was a no-brainer for Vinatieri, and a mistake by the Patriots front office.

No curse necessary.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Sports Illustrated Previews the 2006 NFL Season (and enters Stage 3 of the NFL's Substance Abuse Policy)

If you don't have a subscription, Sports Illustrated predicts that the Carolina Panthers will defeat the Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl XLI.

Now, it's entirely possible that the Panthers will get there. They have a great head coach and a very tough defense. They will be playing "playoff-caliber" football all season long in the rough and tumble NFC South, and if they stay healthy, they're as good a bet as anyone to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

But Miami? Does Sports Illustrated actually believe that the Dolphins will win the AFC East, beat the Ravens in an AFC Wild Card game before heading off on the road to beat Pittsburgh and Indianapolis? They sure do! Where's Crockett & Tubbs when we really need them?

We all know that these predictions are meaningless, but it doesn't appear SI has put any thought into them. Everyone in the NFC East finishes 9-7? Buffalo finishes with a better record than Arizona? St. Louis finishes with a better record than San Diego?

Has whoever made these predictions ever even watched a football game?




Palmer Clears First Hurdle

As I mentioned in my preview of the 2006 Cincinnati Bengals, how far they go rests squarely on the surgically-repaired knee of Carson Palmer.

After last night, Palmer appears ready to take them back to the playoffs. In his first action since being "von Oelhoffened" last January, Palmer was 9-14 for 140 yards and tossed 3 touchdown passes. After initially appearing slightly uncomfortable in the pocket, Palmer quickly settled down and began playing like his old self. He even took off for an 11-yard scramble, which likely raised Marvin Lewis' heartrate quicker than those late night calls from local sheriffs do. But that scramble is a sign that Palmer is back.

The issue with Palmer wasn't whether or not he was physically ready to play, it was whether or not he was mentally ready to return. And last night, Palmer showed that he was indeed to read. Carson Palmer will be the team's starting quarterback when the Bengals open up the regular season in Kansas City on September 10th, and that means that Cincinnati is well-equipped to defend their AFC North crown.



Monday, August 28, 2006

NFL News & Notes - August 28th, 2006

Jason Whitlock (of the Kansas City Star and ESPN) must be the happiest guy in KC tonight, as word comes out of Oakland that the Raiders have signed 39-year old Jeff George to a contract.

George has been out of the NFL since he rode the pine for a few games with the Bears in 2004, and his last tenure as a starting quarterback was with Minnesota in 1999. His one season with the Vikings happened to be his most productive season in the NFL, and one of his targets from that season was Randy Moss, who is now in Oakland.

The quarterback position in Oakland appeared settled, albeit temporarily, before today's events. Aaron Brooks (like George, a wildly inconsistent QB) was signed in the off-season after being released by New Orleans, and he was to be backed up by Andrew Walter (whom the team really likes) and Marques Tuiasosopo was to be the 3rd QB. The signing of George means that Tuiasosopo, who had 4 different offensive coordinators in his 5 years in Oakland, will likely be on the team's list of cuts, which are due tomorrow.

Speaking of Erratic Quarterbacks....

Kerry Collins has signed a 1-year contract with the Tennessee Titans. Collins, whose entering his 13th season in the NFL, spent the summer in the NFL's unemployment line, but was always expected to be signed by someone to serve as an insurance policy before the start of the season.

What does this mean for Billy Volek? Probably nothing, though it's being reported that the Titans are "shopping" him around the league. Vince Young hasn't demonstrated that he's ready to start for an NFL team, and neither has Matt Mauck, the team's 3rd QB.

For now, I expect Collins to serve as the #3 QB while he learns the offensive scheme. If Volek were to be injured, Collins could step in and start, or most likely serve as Young's backup.

The Eagles Get a New WR

The biggest question mark on the Philadelphia Eagles roster was the wide receiver position. Have they answered that by acquiring Donte Stallworth from the New Orleans Saints for linebacker Mark Simoneau (and a conditional 4th round pick in 2007)?

Possibly.

Stallworth is coming off his most consistent season as a pro, and given the circumstances under which the Saints were forced to play in 2005, that's no small accomplishment. It'll take him some time to learn the offense, and to jell with Donovan McNabb. Stallworth possesses the ability to run after the catch, and in the Iggle's west coast-style of offense, he could become a legitimate #1 WR.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Breaking Down the Lelie/Duckett Trade

Breaking down the Ashley Lelie/TJ Duckett trade:

Winner: Denver

The Broncos will reportedly receive two mid-round draft choices for Lelie, a former 1st round pick whose time in Denver could only be described as "inconsistent". Lelie has the ability to make big plays (his career yards per catch average is 17.9, which is great), but he's never made those plays with any regularity. Aside from his "breakout" season in 2004 (54-1084-20.1 w/7 TDs), Lelie never produced at a level high enough to warrant the #1 WR status he felt he deserved.

Denver will also receive back some of Lelie's original signing bonus, as well as some cash from the fines Lelie accrued while holding out of training camp. The total dollar amount could be in the $500K area.

Loser: Atlanta

Yes, the injury to Brian Finneran left the Falcons without a reliable #3 WR. But in Atlanta, does the #3 receiver even matter? Atlanta's bread & butter was the run, and while Warrick Dunn is the starter, and carries most of the load, he's 31 years old and it was Duckett (6-0, 254) who the team turned to when the tough, short yards on 3rd down or near the goal line.

Let's also not forget that Atlanta now has three (3) former 1st round picks at WR (Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, Ashley Lelie), as well as Alge Crumpler, a 3-time Pro Bowler at tight end. With Michael Vick at QB (the 1st overall pick in 2001), what will the excuses be this year if the passing game again finishes near the bottom of the NFL in 2006?

Why?: Washington

Nobody should be surprised that Washington spent two draft choices to acquire TJ Duckett, who is a free agent after this season. In the Daniel Snyder Era, the draft hasn't been as important to Washington as it is to other teams. However, one has to wonder if the acquisition of Duckett is a sign that Clinton Portis' shoulder injury is one the team expects to linger throughout 2006.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

NFC Team-by-Team Previews

NFC East

New York Giants
Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North

Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers

To see the AFC Previews, click here.

Seattle Seahawks - 2006 NFL Preview

Alas, we've come to the end of our virtual tour of each NFL team, ending with the defending NFC Champs, the Seattle Seahawks.

2005 Record:
13-3 (1st in NFC West); Lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XL.

2005 Rankings
Offense:
2nd (14th pass; 3rd run)
Defense: 16th (25th pass; 5th run)

Head Coach: Mike Holmgren (138-86, 11-9 in post-season); Entering 15th season as NFL head coach. Was in Green Bay from 1992-1998 (75-37, 9-5 in post-season; Took the Packers to the Super Bowl in 1996 and 1997, winning Super Bowl XXXI), and has coached Seattle from 1999-present (63-49, 2-4 in post-season, including a loss in Super Bowl XL).

2006 Draft Class

1.31- CB, Kelly Jennings (Miami)
2.63 – DE, Darryl Tapp (Virginia Tech)
4.128 – G, Rob Sims (Ohio State)
5.163 – FB, David Kirtman (USC)
7.239 – P, Ryan Plackemeier (Wake Forest)
7.249 – WR, Ben Obomanu (Auburn)

Arrivals

Nate Burleson, WR (Minnesota)
Julian Peterson, LB (San Francisco)
Mike Green, S (Chicago)
Tom Ashworth, OL (New England)

Departures

Steve Hutchinson, G (Minnesota)
Marquand Manuel, S (Green Bay)
Joe Jurevicius, WR (Cleveland)
Andre Dyson, CB (NY Jets)
Ryan Hannam, TE (Dallas)
Russell Davis, DT (Arizona)
Tom Rouen, P (San Francisco)

Team Overview

2005 was a year spent exorcising demons in Seattle. The Seahawks won the NFC West in 2004, but were swept by the Rams during the regular season and in the NFC Wild Card playoff game in Qwest Field. Seattle returned the favor in 2005, sweeping the Rams, and for good measure, the Cardinals and 49ers, too. When injuries knocked both starting wide receivers (Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram) out of the lineup for a month, the team everyone called “soft” shrugged and went on an impressive 11 game winning streak. There was a different feeling around this team the entire year. When Seattle pulled victories from the jaws of defeat against Dallas and the New York Giants, the Seahawks appeared to be a team that had a date with destiny.

After not winning a playoff game since 1984, everyone wondered if they’d see the “Same Ol’ Seahawks” in January. When Shaun Alexander, the league’s MVP, was concussed against Washington, Matt Hasselbeck tossed the team onto his back and they rode his arm, as well as a suffocating defense, to victory. When Carolina came into Seattle fresh off resounding victories on the road against the Giants and Bears, many predicted the end of Seattle’s magical run. The Seahawks responded by pressuring Jake Delhomme into three interceptions in a 34-14 blowout that sent Seattle to Super Bowl XL.

Like all successful NFL teams, the Seahawks lost some key components from their Super Bowl team this off-season. Minnesota was able to wrangle All-Pro left guard Steve Hutchinson away with a $49M, poison-pill laden contract offer Seattle couldn’t match. Joe Jurevicius took less money to return home to Cleveland, and Marquand Manuel couldn’t pass up an opportunity to start in Green Bay.

No player could be brought in to replace Hutchinson, but depth at offensive line has been one of Seattle’s strength in recent years. Expect Pork Chop Womack, Chris Spencer or rookie Rob Sims to man the left guard position this year. The offensive line appears to be in great shape, with All-World left tackle Walter Jones at left tackle, Robbie Tobeck coming off a Pro Bowl season at center, Chris Gray at right guard and last year’s biggest surprise, Sean Locklear at right tackle.

Seattle will definitely miss Joe Jurevicius, but they’ve added a more “dynamic” receiver when they signed Nate Burleson, a Seattle-area native to their own “poison-pill” laced contract offer. Though Darrell Jackson hasn’t yet practiced following off-season knee surgery, Seattle expects him back for the regular season. He’ll start, as will Burleson and Bobby Engram, as Seattle often uses 3-WR sets. Peter “P-Dub” Warrick and DJ Hackett round out the group, which is better than the sum of its part. Hackett made some brilliant catches in 2005, and Warrick appears to be 100% following knee surgery in 2004. The tight ends took a hit when Jerramy Stevens re-injured his surgically repaired knee last week, and he’s expected to miss the first month of the season. Itula Mili showed up in shape this year, and is expected to start after a season where an intestinal blockage kept him out of the lineup.

Shaun Alexander is coming off a storybook season. He led the NFL in rushing, broke the single-season rushing touchdown record, was named league MVP and signed an 8-year, $62M mega-contract. Oh, and he’s this year’s cover boy for the most popular video game in history, Madden 2007. Not a bad year for #37. Though he’s at times been labeled as being selfish, Alexander has been saying and doing the right things in camp. He appears ready to be a leader, and he’s always been the type of player who sets seemingly unattainable goals for himself. That obsession with numbers may appear selfish, but if Alexander reaches them, chances are Seattle is winning football games. Behind Alexander is Maurice Morris, who is a good change-of-pace back, and is a more polished receiver than Alexander. Mack Strong finally was sent to the Pro Bowl in 2005, and he returns for another year showing no signs of slowing down. The most intriguing running back on the roster is 2nd year fullback, Leonard Weaver, who was an undrafted free agent from Division II Carson-Newman, where he played tight end. In limited duty, Weaver has shown the ability to run inside and possesses one of the fiercest stiff-arms around. He’s also being looked at as a kick returner, and at 6-0, 251 pounds, he’d be the biggest kick returner I’ve ever seen.

Alexander may be the league’s MVP, but Matt Hasselbeck is the team’s MVP. Hasselbeck is one of the few elite QBs in the NFL, and has this offense running like a well-oiled machine. He’s the team’s unquestioned leader, and as he goes, so do the Seahawks. Backing up Hasselbeck is probably the team’s best athlete, Seneca Wallace. Perhaps best known for his amazing over-the-shoulder reception during the NFL Championship game, Seattle has seen enough of Wallace as a quarterback to resist the urge to convert him to a wide receiver/punt returner.

The one area Seattle desperately needed to improve upon heading into 2005 was putting pressure on the quarterback. Last year, Seattle led the NFL in that category, and they did it by getting production from unlikely sources. Bryce Fisher was brought in to rush the QB, and he led the team with 9 sacks. That was expected. What wasn’t expected were the seasons that DT Rocky Bernard (8.5 sacks), Marcus Tubbs (5.5) and getting a combined 11.5 sacks out of a pair of undersized rookie linebackers, Lofa Tatupu and LeRoy Hill.

Tatupu (2nd round) and Hill (3rd round) were the steals of the 2005 draft, and both will return as experienced veterans in 2006. Seattle added LB Julian Peterson in the off-season, and Peterson-Tatupu-Hill are one of the best linebacking units in the NFL. Peterson gives the Seahawks a bonafide weapon on defense.

The defensive line returns everyone from 2005, with last year’s starting lineup of Grant Wistrom, Bryce Fisher, Chuck Darby and Rocky Bernard expected to once again start on opening day. Marcus Tubbs, Craig Terrill and free agent DT Russell Davis will be rotated in frequently. Wistrom and Fisher saw significant playing time in 2005, and they’ll be rested a bit with Darryl Tapp and Julian Peterson playing some defensive end on obvious passing downs.

The secondary lost Marquand Manuel, who stepped in and played very well when Ken Hamlin was lost for the season following a fight outside a Seattle nightclub. Hamlin is back, and is hoping to pick up where he left off before the head injury suffered last October. Michael Boulware starts opposite Hamlin, but has been slowed by injuries this summer. Michael Green was acquired from Chicago, and he is expected to play a lot in 2006. Marcus Trufant is hoping that finally being healthy heading into a season will translate into better play, and he’ll start on the right side. Kelly Herndon appears to have won his training camp battle with this year’s 1st round pick, Kelly Jennings, who will play immediately as the nickel corner. Jordan Babineaux, nicknamed “Big Play Babs” for his knack for making impact plays last year, provides great versatility in the secondary. When Herndon and Dyson were slowed by injuries, Babineaux, a safety in college, started at cornerback. He’ll be used in dime coverages, and has the experience necessary to back up at every position.

Until someone proves otherwise, Seattle is still the team to beat in the NFC. They’re the most talented team in the conference, and there’s virtually no chance that Mike Holmgren will let them go into the new season without understanding that 2005 is in the past, and that they start 2006 at the base of the mountain.

Three & Out

- Lofa Tatupu became just the 3rd rookie linebacker in NFL history to start all 16 regular season games and 3 playoff games, and the 1st rookie linebacker to post 3+ interceptions and 3+ sacks in a season. The only thing that eluded Tatupu last year was the league’s Defensive Rookie of the Year award. Way to go, voters!

- Don’t underestimate the impact Joe Jurevicius will have on the receivers. Seattle wideouts caught 20 TD passes in 2005, half of them courtesy of Jurevicius. His sure-handedness and impeccable practice habits rubbed off on his teammates, and Seattle eliminated the “dropsies” they had become synonymous with.

- The road to Super Bowl XLI might once again go through Seattle. With a weak slate of divisional games, Seattle also plays one of the NFL’s weakest schedules. If Seattle takes care of business, and clinches home-field advantage in January, it’ll be very tough for any other other contenders to unseat them.

Fantasy Island

Two words: Shaun Alexander. 1,900 yards and 29 TDs don’t disappear because a left guard signed somewhere else.

Ok, maybe he’ll only have 1,500 yards and 20 TDs, but is that really not enough?

Monday, August 21, 2006

St. Louis Rams - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 6-10 (2nd in NFC West)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 6th (2nd pass; 22nd run)
Defense: 30th (23rd pass; 28th run)

Head Coach: Scott Linehan (0-0); Entering 1st season as NFL head coach

2006 Draft Class

1.15 – CB, Tye Hill (Clemson)
2.46 – TE, Joe Klopfenstein (Colorado)
3.68 – DT, Claude Wroten (LSU)
3.77 – LB, Jon Alston (Stanford)
3.93 – TE, Domonique Byrd (USC)
4.113 – DE, Victor Adeyanju (Indiana)
5.144 – WR, Marques Hagans (Virginia)
7.221 – LB, Tim McGarigle (Northwestern)
7.242 – OG, Mark Setterstrom (Minnesota)
7.243 – OG, Tony Palmer (Missouri)

Arrivals

Scott Linehan, head coach (Miami – offensive coordinator)
Jim Haslett, defensive coordinator (New Orleans – head coach)
Fakhir Brown, CB (New Orleans)
Corey Chavous, S (Minnesota)
Tony Fisher, RB (Green Bay)
Jason Fisk, DT (Cleveland)
Gus Frerotte, QB (Miami)
La’Roi Glover, DT (Dallas)
Will Witherspoon, LB (Carolina)


Departures

Adam Archuleta, S (Washington)
Marshall Faulk, RB (retired)
Mike Martz, head coach (Detroit – offensive coordinator)
Joe Vitt, head coach
Tyoka Jackson, DE (Detroit)
Chris Johnson, CB (Kansas City)
Ryan Pickett, DT (Green Bay)
Rex Tucker, OG (Detroit)

Team Overview

2005 couldn’t have unfolded much worse for the Rams. Mike Martz and Marc Bulger were healthy for just half the season, the offensive line was in shambles and the defense continued was one of the worst in the NFL.

Scott Linehan, the former Vikings and Dolphins offensive coordinator, has been hired to replace Mike Martz, who is now coordinating the offense in Detroit. Linehan and Martz both like to throw the ball deep, but the major difference between the two coaches is Linehan’s offense places more value on the ground game. With Marc Bulger coming off shoulder injuries last year, and Steven Jackson now firmly entrenched as the starting running back, that’s good news for Rams fans.

The offensive line will also benefit from Linehan’s system. Martz often sent everyone out on pass routes, but Linehan’s will keep a tight end or back in to block. The interior of the line isn’t that talented, and those who are talented are up there in NFL years, but Alex Barron and Orlando Pace are solid bookend tackles. Pace earned Pro Bowl honors following the 2005 season.

The only other Pro Bowler for St. Louis is Torry Holt, who is pound-for-pound, the best wide receiver in the NFL. Despite playing with 3 different quarterbacks in 2005, Holt posted 102 receptions, 1300+ yards and 9 scores. No amount of unrest at the QB position is going to keep Holt’s numbers down. The wide receiving crew is pretty deep. Isaac Bruce returns for one more go ‘round, and Kevin Curtis emerged with a 60-catch season. Shaun McDonald is the #4 WR. With Linehan now running things, the tight end will actually be expected to produce, so the team drafted two solid tight ends in April’s draft (Joe Klopfenstein and Dominique Byrd) and they’re both right at the top of the depth chart.

St. Louis used free agency to provide some instant upgrades on defense. La’Roi Glover was signed to plug the middle, and he’s familiar with Jim Haslett from his days in New Orleans. Fakhir Brown is another Haslett guy, and he’s been brought in to solidify the CB position. Corey Chavous provides some veteran leadership at safety, as well as a possible college scout come next April’s draft. Will Witherspoon, a talented linebacker whose just coming into his prime, was signed away from the Carolina Panthers. The defense isn’t very deep, nor is it very big, but they do have some speed and should improve over last year’s 30th ranking.

After being the class of the NFC West in 2004, the Rams plummeted back to Earth in a hurry. I don’t expect much of a climb this year, but they should be a more disciplined, more balanced and all-around better team than they were in 2005. 8-8 is a definite possibility.

Three & Out

- When the Rams lost both Marc Bulger and his backup Jamie Martin to injury last year, they had no choice but to turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick (a 2005 7th round pick) to play the position. Behind Bulger this year is Gus Frerotte, who has spent much of his career playing in Linehan’s offense.  

- Last year, Rams cornerbacks accounted for just 3 interceptions. DeJuan Groce, who is currently buried on the depth chart, led all CBs with 2. Corey Ivy, who is now in Baltimore, added the other. The team’s leader in picks was Mike Furrey, a wide receiver who was converted to safety. Furrey snagged 4 interceptions, and is currently back playing wide receiver…in Detroit. That should help explain why Fakhir Brown and Corey Chavous were signed, and why the team spent a 1st round pick on Tye Hill, a CB from Clemson.  

- Few would argue with the dismissal of Mike Martz, but one shouldn’t forget that Martz led the Rams to a 53-32 record from 2000-2005, won 4 NFC West titles and guided them to Super Bowl XXXVI.  He’ll be a head coach again real soon.

Fantasy Island

One comment from the NFL Networks’ Marshall Faulk really stood out to me. They were discussing the Rams offense, more specifically how it would be different under Scott Linehan. Faulk let out a “finally” after it was mentioned that the Rams will run the football more in 2006.  

Steven Jackson is 6-2, weighs 233 pounds and is entering just his 3rd season in the NFL. Get him running downhill, and he’s nearly impossible. Running behind a “blocking-challenged” offensive line last year didn’t faze Jackson, as he put up over 1,000 yards and averaged 4.1 per carry. I do expect 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns out of Jackson in 2006.  












Arizona Cardinals - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 5-11 (3rd in NFC West)

2005 Rankings
Offense:
7th (1st pass; 32nd run)
Defense: 8th (12th pass; 10th run)

Head Coach: Dennis Green (108-83, 4-8 in post-season); Entering 13th season as NFL head coach (Minnesota 1992-2001); Entering 3rd season as Arizona Cardinals head coach.

2006 Draft Class

1.10 – QB, Matt Leinart (USC)
2.41 – G, Taitusi Lutui (USC)
3.73 – TE, Leonard Pope (Georgia)
4.107 – DT, Gabe Watson (Michigan)
5.142 – LB, Brandon Johnson (Louisville)
6.177 – DT, Jon Lewis (Virginia Tech)
7.218 – WR, Todd Watkins (BYU)

Arrivals

Edgerrin James, RB (Indianapolis)
Milford Brown, G (Houston)
Kendrick Clancy, DT (NY Giants)

Departures

Josh McCown, QB (Detroit)
Russell Davis, DT (Seattle)
Quentin Harris, S (NY Giants)

Team Overview

The Arizona Cardinals failed to live up to the lofty expectations many had for them in 2005. Many predicted the Cardinals would win the NFC West, and were definitely playoff-caliber. For the 17th time in the 18 years the Cardinals have played in Arizona, the Cardinals failed to crack the .500 mark, finishing 5-11 and well out of playoff contention.

This year, the expectations are again high, as the Cardinals open up a state-of-the-art stadium. From the outside, it looks like a spaceship. That’s appropriate, especially since winning football games in the desert is an alien concept. Since making the move from St. Louis, Arizona has gone 100-188, and made one (1) trip to the playoffs.

To change the franchises fortunes, the Cardinals have signed former Indianapolis Colts running back Edgerrin James to lucrative contract. After ranking dead last in rushing a year ago, Dennis Green hopes that James can give the running game a boost and take some pressure of their passing game, which ranked #1 in the NFL in 2005.

Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are as good a wide receiving duo as you’ll find in the NFL, and with former league MVP Kurt Warner at QB, ranking #1 shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Don’t be fooled by the numbers, though. The Cardinals ranked #1 in passing because more often than not, they were trailing and couldn’t afford to even attempt to run the ball.

Edgerrin James does give them something that they’ve been missing the last few years. He’s a strong runner, is adept at picking up blitzing defenders, and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. He’d be even more effective if the Cardinals could actually block someone for him.

The defense also ranked in the Top 10…in yardage. When it came to allowing opponents to score, Arizona didn’t fare too well. Some of that can be attributed to opponents playing on such a short field, but some of that can also be attributed to sloppy play. This unit has built up talent through the draft (Antrell Rolle, Darnell Dockett, Karlos Dansby) and free agency (Chike Okeafor, Bert Berry). The question is whether or not this unit can play together and reach its potential.

Arizona is once again the chic pick in the NFC. The perception is that the conference is weak, the division could be theirs if Seattle suffers the “Super Bowl loser” slump, etc…With the talent that the Cardinals have one can see where the optimism comes from.

But the offensive line and the linebackers are, to me, not good enough to get this team into the tournament. They can win 8-9 games, and they probably will. But is Arizona headed for the playoffs? I don’t think so.

Three & Out

- Arizona will be happy to have DE Bertrand Berry back this year. Berry was injured for much of 2005, where he was coming off his first trip to the Pro Bowl. Beyond Berry and Chike OKeafor, and tackles Darnell Dockett and Kendrick Clancy, the defensive line isn’t deep enough to absorb a significant injury.

- Since guiding the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2001, Kurt Warner has played in 29 games, never more than 10 in any season. During that stretch, Warner has thrown 21 touchdown passes, and 25 interceptions. With the Cardinals offensive line shaky at best, they’d better get Matt Leinart ready to play, ASAP.

- Watched quite a bit of the Cardinals-Patriots game the other night, and the one thing that amazed me was how ordinary this linebacking crew is. They appear to be fast, but they missed quite a few tackles and looked absolutely lost in pass coverage. On paper, this is a talented group. The reality might be much different.

Fantasy Island

Don’t let the addition of Edgerrin James scare you away from taking an early draft pick on either Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin. They are the strength of this offense, and with James a better decoy than JJ Arrington, they both could put up numbers close to the 100-catch seasons of 2005.

Sunday, August 20, 2006

QB Change in Big D?

Peter King just reported in his halftime segment during the Sunday Night game on NBC that it's possible that Bill Parcells could replace Drew Bledsoe with Tony Romo as the starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys.

King noted that Romo is yet to throw a pass in an NFL game, but Dallas loved his accuracy, mobility and leadership qualities.

He's accurate onpasses he hasn't thrown yet?
He's showed leadership abilities, despite not playing a second of an NFL game?

With issues where there's smoke (Romo did play the entire pre-season game in Seattle), there's not necessarily fire. And I think this is a prime example of that.

Dallas has a legitimate opportunity to win the NFC East. If Terrell Owens ever decides he wants to be an NFL football player and stops babying his hamstring and practices, this is a team that could go deep into the NFC playoffs. Going with an untested, unproven QB, whose never played in an NFL game, would virtually guarantee a non-playoff season in Dallas.

Jets Acquire Barlow From 49ers

With the prospects of Curtis Martin returning from a knee injury growing dimmer each day, the New York Jets have sent an undisclosed 2007 draft choice to the San Francisco 49ers for running back Kevan Barlow.

As I mentioned earlier today in my 49ers preview, Frank Gore is the more effective runner. Obviously, someone in the 49ers front office agreed with me.



San Francisco 49ers - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 4-12 (4th in NFC West)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 32nd (32nd pass; 17th run)
Defense: 32nd (32nd pass; 18th run)

Head Coach: Mike Nolan (4-12); Entering 2nd season as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers.    

2006 Draft Class

1.6 – TE, Vernon Davis (Maryland)
1.22 – DE, Manny Lawson (NC State)
3.84 – WR, Brandon Williams (Wisconsin)
4.100 – WR, Michael Robinson (Penn State)
5.140 – DE, Parys Henderson (Tennessee)
6.175 – WR, Delanie Walker (Central Missouri State)
6.192 – DB, Marcus Hudson (NC State)
6.197 – DE, Melvin Oliver (LSU)
7.254 – DB, Vickiel Vaughn (Arkansas)

Arrivals
Trent Dilfer, QB (Cleveland)
Larry Allen, G (Dallas)
Antonio Bryant, WR (Cleveland)
Walt Harris, CB (Washington)
Chad Williams, S (Baltimore)
Taylor Jacobs, WR (Washington)

Departures

Julian Peterson, LB (Seattle)
Andre Carter, DE (Washington)
Brandon Lloyd, WR (Washington)
Fred Beasley, FB (Miami)
Anthony Clement, OT (NY Jets)
Chris Cooper, DT (Seattle)
Johnnie Morton, WR (released)
Ahmed Plummer, CB

Team Overview

From 1983 to 1998, the San Francisco 49ers were the most dominant franchise in the NFL. Every new season brought with it the expectation that the teams’ final game would be played on the game’s biggest stage. Those days are well in the past, as the 49ers have endured losing campaigns in 5 of the last 7 seasons.

Losing in 2005 was to be expected. Mike Nolan came in to replace the ineffective Dennis Erickson, and the team was installing a new defense and offense with the same personnel, which led to them being more aptly named the San Francisco 32nds. Nolan’s crew finished dead last in the NFL in both offense and defense, but despite those lowly rankings, the 49ers did double their win total from 2004.

In the off-season, San Francisco continued the roster overhaul. For a rebuilding team, Julian Peterson’s price tag was too great, and he went north to division rival Seattle. The defense also lost Andre Carter to the Washington Redskins. Also going to Washington was the team’s most talented, and most erratic, wide receiver, Brandon Lloyd.

The offense has been turned over to the 1st pick of the 2005 draft, QB Alex Smith. Behind him, the 49ers smartly brought in a competent backup, local boy Trent Dilfer. The former Fresno State star did wonders for Matt Hasselbeck’s career in Seattle, and he’s expected to be ready to play if needed, but mostly to show Smith what it takes to be an NFL quarterback. Kevan Barlow and Frank Gore return as the top 2 running backs. Gore is the more effective runner, but Barlow is expected to start. The disparity in per carry average (Barlow’s 3.3 to Gore’s 4.8) displays the difference in each runner’s styles. Barlow needs holes to run through, while Gore just runs over people. The offensive line received a boost with the addition of Larry Allen, though his best days are well behind him. Jonas Jennings and Kwame Harris are above average tackles, and Justin Smiley is an emerging talent at right guard. The major question mark for the 49ers is at center, with Jeremy Newberry expected to miss the entire 2006 season.

The receiving crew is much different than last year’s. Newly acquired WR Antonio Bryant and Arnaz Battle will be the starters, with Rasheed Marshall, Bryan Gilmore and Brandon Williams providing depth. The 49ers will welcome back tight end Eric Johnson to the mix, but the most intriguing receiving option may be Vernon Davis. A freakish athlete, whose combination of size and speed make him nearly impossible to cover. He’s expected to make an immediate and significant impact in his rookie season.

Coach Nolan came to the Bay Area from Baltimore, and last year began the transformation from a 4-3 to a 3-4 alignment. While the trio of the ageless Bryant Young along with Anthony Adams and Marques Douglas are solid, they don’t have much depth beyond them. The key to the 3-4 defense is the linebackers, and San Francisco has 2 solid and smart inside ‘backers (Derek Smith and Jeff Ulbrich). On the outside, they’ll start Brandon Moore and the latter of the team’s two 1st round picks, Manny Lawson, who starred alongside Houston’s Mario Williams at North Carolina State. As with the front line, this group also lacks depth.

The secondary is an issue of concern for San Francisco, especially in a division with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram and Darrell Jackson. Shawntae Spencer has reportedly had a great camp, and they’ve got some veteran cornerbacks (Walt Harris, Sammy Davis), but overall, this is a talented group. Tony Parrish is the leader of the group, but the rest of the safeties are a collection of street and undrafted free agents.

The last 7 seasons have been nothing short of a nightmare for 49ers fans. Being 2-12 in December is not something they’d like to be accustomed to, and while the 49ers appear heading in the right direction, another 4-5 win season seems likely.  

Three & Out

- The 49ers must’ve been privately chuckling when the Redskins traded for Brandon Lloyd and through Top 10 WR money at him. Lloyd may have talent, but he’s never caught more than 50 passes in a single season. He makes the occasional acrobatic reception, but he’s not the consistent receiver the Redskins contract offer will pay him to be.  

- You’ve got to be rooting for Eric Johnson to come back strong from a lost 2005 season. With Vernon Davis in the mix, the former 7th round draft pick out of Yale likely won’t duplicate his 82-reception season in 2004. Still, remaining healthy and productive would be a good sign for a player who has missed two of the last three seasons due to injury.

- To say that Alex Smith struggled as a rookie would be an understatement. He threw just 1 touchdown pass, and turned the ball over an astounding 13 times (11 interceptions, 2 fumbles). His 40.8 QB rating was low, even when compared to other QBs playing in their 1st season. But Smith has talent, and with a veteran backup (Dilfer), and some more dependable receivers (Bryant, Davis, Johnson), Smith should improve in 2006. If his performance against Chicago in the first pre-season game is any indication, Smith’s 2006 will be light years ahead of hiss 2005.

Fantasy Island

I wouldn’t depend on any 49er to have much of a fantasy impact in 2006. They’re simply not very good just yet. But I would take a late round pick on Frank Gore, who led the 49ers in rushing in 2005 despite being behind Kevan Barlow on the depth chart.  
















Friday, August 18, 2006

Carolina Panthers - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 11-5 (2nd in NFC South). Lost to Seattle, 34-14, in NFC Championship game.

2005 Rankings
Offense: 22nd (16th pass; 19th run)
Defense: 3rd (9th pass; 4th run)

Head Coach: John Fox (36-28, 5-2 in post-season); Entering 5th season as Carolina Panthers Head Coach.

2006 Draft Class

1.27 – RB, DeAngelo Williams (Memphis)
2.58 – DB, Richard Marshall (Fresno State)
3.88 – LB, James Anderson (Virginia Tech)
3.89 – OT, Rashad Butler (Miami)
4.121 – DB, Nate Salley (Ohio State)
5.155 – TE, Jeff King (Virginia Tech)
7.234 – OG, Will Montgomery (Virginia Tech)
7.237 – DE, Stanley McClover (Auburn)

Arrivals

Keith Adams, LB (Philadelphia)
Na’il Diggs, LB (Green Bay)
Justin Hartwig, C (Tennessee)
Keyshawn Johnson, WR (Dallas)
Reggie Howard, CB (Miami)
Maake Kemoeatu, DT (Baltimore)
Damione Lewis, DT (St. Louis)
Kevin Macadam, S (Atlanta)
Shaun Williams, S (NY Giants)

Departures

Idrees Bashir, S (Detroit)
Ricky Manning, Jr., CB (Chicago)
Marlon McCree, S (San Diego)
Tutan Reyes, OG (Buffalo)
Brandon Short, LB (NY Giants)
Dante Wesley, S (Chicago)
Will Witherspoon, LB (St. Louis)
Kemp Rasmussen, DE (Seattle)
Brentson Buckner, DT (released)
Stephen Davis, RB (released)
Ricky Proehl, WR (not re-signed)
Jeff Saturday, C (not re-signed)


Team Overview

Energized by two convincing road victories in the playoffs, the Carolina Panthers were predicted by many to make their 2nd trip to the Super Bowl in three seasons. Carolina, already playing without Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster, lost Nick Goings in the 1st half in the NFC Championship game, and Seattle became the first team all season to bottle up Steve Smith, as they easily defeated the Panthers, 34-14.

Carolina enters 2006 with some new faces on offense. Justin Hartwig was signed to replace an aging Jeff Saturday at center, and Keyshawn Johnson was brought to give the Panthers the sure-handed veteran receiver the offense lacked when Muhsin Muhammed signed with the Chicago Bears before the 2005 season. Steve Smith is coming off an incredible season, one where he shared the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award with New England’s Tedy Bruschi. The addition of Johnson, and the feeling that 3rd year receivers Drew Carter and Keary Colbert will become more involved in the offense, should make the Panthers less reliant on their ground attack.

After consistently losing running backs to injury, Carolina spent its 1st round pick in 2006 on DeAngelo Williams, a highly talented running back from Memphis. DeShaun Foster was re-signed in the off-season, but Williams should expect to see plenty of action in his rookie season.

Carolina made some changes to their 3rd-ranked defense. Ma’ake Kemoeatu, a free agent from Baltimore, was brought in to replace Brentson Buckner at defensive tackle. Will Witherspoon and Brandon Short left via free agency, so Carolina signed a pair of free agent linebackers (Na’il Diggs and Keith Adams) to replace them, and last year’s 1st round pick, Thomas Davis, is expected to move into the starting lineup.

The secondary wasn’t ignored, either. With Ricky Manning, the team’s nickel cornerback last year, signing with the Chicago Bears, Carolina drafted Richard Marshall out of Fresno State, and brought in Reggie Howard from the Miami Dolphins for depth. Shaun Williams, who played under John Fox in New York, was brought to man the safety spot vacated by Marlon McCree.

Most NFL observers are predicting a Super Bowl season from the Panthers. I’m not that optimistic. They’re a very solid team, and if they stay healthy, they should win their divisions or at least make the playoffs. Carolina has a very tough schedule, play in a very competitive division, so I'm not so sure their playoff path in 2006 will be much different than it was in 2005. And that's not a good thing for their Super Bowl hopes.

Three & Out

- The defense may not have lost one of its leaders, but it did lose its top two tacklers. Marlon McCree (88) and Will Witherspoon (81) both departed through free agency.

- One area the defense won’t be lacking production is QB sacks. Carolina posted 45 of them in 2005, and got impressive seasons out of reserve DL Al Wallace (5 sacks) and Kindal Moorehead (5 sacks). Julius Peppers is the model of consistency. You know that Peppers is good for 10+ sacks in any season he stays moderately healthy in.

- Ken Lucas was one of the best free agent acquisitions in the 2005 off-season. Lucas was coming off a career year in Seattle, and cashed in with a mega-contract from the Panthers. He rewarded them by having a 6-interception season, and deserved more Pro Bowl consideration than he ultimately received. He’s gone from marginal starter to sure-fire Pro Bowler in just two short seasons.

Fantasy Island

When Steve Smith’s 2004 season last just one game, it was unclear whether or not he’d get back to his receiving totals from his breakout 2003 season (88-1110-7).

Well, Smith shattered those numbers, putting up 103 receptions, 1500 yards, 12 touchdowns, and more creative end zone celebrations than anyone not named Chad Johnson.

Expect more of the same in 2006, even with Keyshawn Johnson stealing receptions from him. Smith is the heart & soul of this offense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 11-5 (1st in NFC South). Lost to Washington, 17-10, in NFC Wild Card playoff game.

2005 Rankings
Offense: 23rd (24th pass; 14th run)
Defense: 1st (6th pass; 6th run)

Head Coach: Jon Gruden (73-55, 5-3 in post-season); Entering 9th season as NFL Head Coach (1998-2001 w/Oakland, 2002-present w/Tampa Bay), and won Super Bowl XXXVII in his 1st season with Tampa Bay.  

2006 Draft Class

1.23 – G, Davin Joseph (Oklahoma)
2.59 – T, Jeremy Trueblood (Boston College)
3.90 – WR, Maurice Stovall (Notre Dame)
4.122 – CB, Alan Zemaitis (Penn State)
5.156 – DE, Julian Jenkins (Stanford)
6.194 – QB, Bruce Gradkowski (Toledo)
6.202 – TE, TJ Williams (NC State)
7.235 – DB, Justin Phinisee (Oregon)
7.241 – LB, Charles Bennett (Clemson)
7.244 – TE, Tim Massaquoi (Michigan)

Arrivals

David Boston, WR (Miami)
Tonio Fonoti, OG (Minnesota)
Torrin Tucker, OT (Dallas)
Jamie Winborn, LB (Jacksonville)

Departures

Rod Marinelli, defensive assistant (Detroit – Head Coach)
Jameel Cook, FB (Houston)
Brian Griese, QB (Chicago)
Dexter Jackson, S (Cincinnati)
Todd Steussie, OT (St. Louis)


Team Overview

When starting quarterback Brian Griese was forced out of the lineup in Week 6, many predicted that the 4-1 Buccaneers would fold like a cheap suit. After all, how farcould rookie Cadillac Williams and “laissez-faire” QB Chris Simms take this team? The answer, as the NFL would soon find out, was the playoffs.

While Brian Griese is fighting for a starter’s job in Chicago, Chris Simms is firmly entrenched as the Buccaneers starter. The numbers don’t lie: Simms still has a way to go in order for him to take Gruden’s offense to where it was under Rich Gannon during Gruden’s coaching days in Oakland, but all signs point to him being able to get it done.  

Cadillac Williams (who did get banged up and crashed squarely into the “rookie wall”) was the talk of the league last September, as the Bucs rode their 1st round pick to a 4-0 start. Williams inevitably got hurt, hit the rookie wall, and his production fluctuated down the stretch. One game he’d have 100 yards and the next week he was lucky to have 50. They’ll need more consistent production out of Williams, and getting that may depend greatly on Chris Simms and the Bucs receivers (Joey Galloway and Michael Clayton) elevating the passing game. Tampa adds free agent David Boston and rookie Maurice Stovall, two big, physical wideouts, to the passing attack. 2nd-year tight end AJ Smith was a huge surprise in 2005, hauling in 41 receptions and a pair of touchdowns.

The strength in Tampa, and stop me if you’ve heard this before, is the defense. The last time a Tampa Bay defense finished lower than 12th was back in 1995, when Sam Wyche was coaching the orange-and-white clad Buccaneers. All of that success can be attributed to excellent personnel, and one Monte Kiffin. If you look around the NFL, you’ll see a pair of head coaches (Herm Edwards, Rod Marinelli) that were spawned from the defense-oriented Bucs teams of the Tony Dungy era.

While many of the players (Warren Sapp, John Lynch) have moved on, the Buccaneers always do a good job of bringing in replacements. Like Denver’s running attack, it’s all about the system in Tampa. This year, much of last year’s #1-ranked unit returns. Greg Spires, Booger McFarland, Chris Hovan and Simeon Rice are a veteran group up front, and Rice is coming off his 5th consecutive season of double-digit sacks. Rice enters his 12th NFL season with 119 career sacks, and another 10+-sack season will elevate Rice into the Top 10 among the NFL’s all-time sack leaders.

Derrick Brooks, whose gone to 9 straight Pro Bowls, leads the linebackers (Ryan Nece, Shelton Quarles) and Ronde Barber, whose gone to back-to-back Pro Bowls, leads a secondary of Brian Kelly, Jermaine Phillips and Will Allen.

Tampa, like Atlanta and Carolina, play a tough 2006 schedule. The defense is good enough to keep them in every game they’ll play, but they’ll need the offense to play much better if they hope to win another NFC South crown.



Three & Out

- The Buccaneers won’t be “giving Thanks” to the NFL schedule makers, who have scheduled 3 games in 10 days before Thanksgiving. Tampa goes to Carolina for a Monday night game on November 13th before hosting the tough Washington Redskins. Four days later, Tampa heads into Dallas to play on Thanksgiving. The bright side is, they get 10 days off before having to travel to Pittsburgh, the defending Super Bowl champs.

- Joey Galloway returned from an injury-plagued 2004 season to have a career year in 2005. Galloway had 83 receptions, 1287 yards and his first 10 TD season since 1998. How many other WRs entering their 12th NFL season could have a season like that?

- None of them are expected to start in 2006, but after years of less-than-stellar offensive line play, the Bucs brought in some Grade A talent this off-season. Toniu Fonoti is a massive guard, and the team used their first two draft picks on guard Davin Joseph and tackle Jeremy Trueblood. It won’t be long before these three are protecting Simms and paving paths for Cadillac Williams.

Fantasy Island

How can you not love Cadillac Williams? Ok, so he isn’t much of a receiver, but Williams had a very impressive rookie season, and with the expected maturation of Chris Simms, expect a better season this year from Cadillac.














AFC Team-by-Team Previews

AFC East

New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
Buffalo Bills

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans

AFC West

Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
San Diego Chargers
Oakland Raiders

To see the NFC previews, click here.

Atlanta Falcons - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 8-8 (3rd in NFC South)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 13th (28th pass; 1st run)
Defense: 22nd (14th pass; 26th run)

Head Coach: Jim Mora, Jr. (19-13, 1-1 in post-season); Entering 3rd season as Atlanta Falcons Head Coach.  

2006 Draft Class

2.37 – CB, Jimmy Williams (Virginia Tech)
3.79 – RB, Jerious Norwood (Mississippi State)
5.139 – OT, Quinn Ojinnaka (Syracuse)
6.184 – WR, Adam Jennings (Fresno State)
7.223 – QB, DJ Shockley (Georgia)

Arrivals

John Abraham, DE (NY Jets)
Lawyer Milloy, S (Buffalo)
Wayne Gandy, OT (New Orleans)
Chris Crocker, S (Cleveland)

Departures

Kevin Shaffer, OT (Cleveland)
Bryan Scott, DB (New Orleans)
Kevin Macadam, S (Carolina)
Barry Stokes, OL (Detroit)
Keion Carpenter, S (not re-signed)
Brady Smith, DE (released)
Todd Peterson, K (not re-signed)

Team Overview

Heading into the 2004 playoffs, the Atlanta Falcons were the team many predicted would represent the NFC in Super Bowl XXXVIIII. They were energized by their rookie head coach (Jim Mora), they had the league’s best athlete (Vick) and a feared ground attack that led the NFL in rushing. After putting up 300 rushing yards in a 47-17 blowout of the St. Louis Rams, the Falcons were confident that they could go into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles, who were playing without star WR Terrell Owens.

And they got beat. Badly. The combination of sub-zero temperatures, and a tough, physical Eagles defense limited Atlanta to 10 points, and a different group of birds were heading to the Super Bowl.

Atlanta entered 2005 as the favorites to win the NFC South and represent the NFC in Super Bowl XL in Detroit, and starting out 6-2 did little to sway NFL pundits. It was at this time that the Falcons began feeling the effects of some key injuries (Edgerton Hartwell and Brady Smith were lost for the season) just as the team entered the meat of their schedule. In the season’s final 8 weeks, Atlanta was swept by division rivals Tampa Bay and Carolina, couldn’t muster up any offense against a stingy Bears team, and lost at home to the lowly Green Bay Packers. The Atlanta Falcons went from a team with Super Bowl aspirations to one that was fortunate to finish at 8-8.

Michael Vick is about to enter his 6th season in the NFL, and his 5th season as the unquestioned #1 QB. In that time, the league’s most athletic player has generated just 2 playoff wins, and has shown little progress as a QB. Vick’s quarterback rating has topped out at 81.6, and that was in his 1st season as a full-time starting QB. Not counting 2003, where he played in just 5 games, Vick’s QB rating has gone from 81.6 to 78.1 to a lowly 73.1 in 2005.

There’s no doubt that the Falcons are a “run first” team. Warrick Dunn, TJ Duckett and yes, Michael Vick, have been the NFL’s best rushing attack the last two seasons, and I don’t expect that to change. Duckett has been the subject of trade rumors this off-season, and if he is dealt before the season, Atlanta has the speedy Jerious Norwood (2nd round pick) to replace him on the depth chart. The passing game suffered a huge blow when Brian Finneran was lost for the season with an injury, which means they’ll be looking to former 1st round picks Roddy White and Michael Jenkins to step up and produce this season. Michael Vick’s favorite target is still Pro Bowl tight end Alge Crumpler, the team’s leading receiver the last two seasons. Crumpler and Vick came into the NFL at the same time, and the 6th year tight end has made 3 straight trips to the Pro Bowl, with his numbers increasing every season. There’s little reason to suspect that will change in 2006.

After DE Brady Smith to injury, and releasing him in March, the Falcons traded away their first round pick for Jets defensive end John Abraham, a pass-rushing DE in the prime of this career. Abraham put up double-digit sack totals in the Big Apple, but he and Jets couldn’t come to terms on a long-term contract. He’ll be paired up with Patrick Kerney, and along with Pro Bowl DT Rod Coleman, the Falcons should have trouble generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Edgerton Hartwell was the prized free agent in 2005, and he returns from an injury-shortened season, as well. Hartwell and veteran Keith Brooking are smart, physical linebackers, and will be joined by 2nd year LB Michael Boley. The unit has great depth, with Demorrio Williams (the team’s leading tackler playing in place of Hartwell), Ike Reese and Jordan Beck backing up.

The secondary received a bit of a facelift in the off-season, as well. SS Lawyer Milloy was brought in, perceivably to improve the 26th-ranked run defense and add some veteran leadership in the secondary. He’ll be paired up with fellow newcomer Chris Crocker, who comes to Atlanta after 3 seasons in Cleveland. On the outside is Jason Webster (who came to Atlanta from San Francisco with coach Mora) and DeAngelo Hall, who is emerging as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. Rookie CB Jimmy Williams is expected to be the nickel corner.

Getting back to the playoffs won’t be easy for Atlanta. The NFC South is arguably the toughest division in the NFL. The non-conference schedule has them playing the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers, the Cincinnati Bengals and the improved Baltimore Ravens. They also have to face the entire NFC East (all have playoff aspirations) and the allegedly improved Arizona Cardinals. If Vick improves, and the defense plays up to its potential, the Falcons have a good shot to win the division. If Vick doesn’t improve, you can’t blame Falcons fans if they get a little impatient with their star QB.


Three & Out

- The loss of Finneran cannot be understated. Vick was as comfortable throwing to Finneran, a big (6-5) target, as he is with Alge Crumpler. Jenkins and White are promising wide receivers, but their 2005 production combined was equal to Alge Crumplers. One of them will need to step up and replace what was lost when Finneran was lost.

- For those that have always wondered why teams use two roster spots on kickers and punters, Jim Mora might be your kind of guy. Michael Koenen, the team’s punter, is getting a look as a field goal kicker as well. Blessed with a powerful leg, Keonen drilled all 4 of his field goal attempts in the pre-season opener, all of which from beyond 40 yards.

- You can’t talk about the Atlanta Falcons without mentioning the offensive line. Whenever you lead the NFL in rushing two straight years, this unit’s exposure is bound to increase. The downside of that is other teams will target them in free agency. That’s what happened to last year’s left tackle, Kevin Shaffer, who is now a Cleveland Brown. To fill that position, the Falcons acquired Wayne Gandy from New Orleans.

Fantasy Island

The safest fantasy option on the Falcons is Alge Crumpler. In fact, it’s not even close. Every opponent knows that Vick will be looking for him, yet Crumpler’s production has increased every season.

There’s no reason to suspect that won’t continue in 2006.