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Thursday, August 31, 2006

Branch to Fire Chayut?

The Patriot Ledger's Eric McHugh is reporting that Deion Branch could end his impasse with the New England Patriots by firing his agent, Jason Chayut.

As of right now, Branch has every reason to seek a change in representation. As a 2nd round pick, Branch (with Chayut representing him) signed a 5-year contract. Normally, 2nd round picks sign 4-year deals. Chayut claims that the Patriots strong-armed him into agreeing to the 5th year on the deal.

This off-season, Branch wanted a "Reggie Wayne" type of contract extention (6-years, $39M including $13.5M in guaranteed money).
Branch does have a Super Bowl MVP award on his resume, but the sort of contract offer he was reportedly looking for isn't commensurate with his production. Branch has never finished in the Top 10 in any receiving category during his 4 years in New England, and without a Pro Bowl or 1,000 yard season on his resume, the notoriously frugal Patriots weren't about to pony up an 8-figure signing bonus.

Also hindering a contract extention was the pesky issue of Branch having one full season remaining on his rookie contract. Extending a player who's already contract is not something most NFL teams rush to do, and it's a practice the Patriots, in particular, don't make a habit of doing. The Patriots have recently extended the contracts of Tom Brady and Richard Seymour, despite a year remaining from their rookie deals. The difference is, Brady is a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer and Seymour is the best defensive lineman in the NFL. Branch isn't a Top 5 WR in his conference.

Still, the Patriots weren't unwilling to work with Branch, and new contract proposals were exchanged. Feeling as though the Patriots were slighting his client, Chayut went public with his dissatisfaction with the Patriots front office, which essentially guaranteed that he'd eventually be fired. If you want re-enact the "pick up the gun" scene from Shane, you don't do it with Scott Pioli and Bill Belichick.

As we approach the deadline the Patriots gave Branch and Chayut to seek a trade, it's obvious that Branch realizes that his agent didn't do him any favors over the past few months. His best bet is to fire Chayut (who really does deserve much of the blame for this), agree to come back into camp, and hope that his new agent and the team can agree to a contract similar to the one Chayut turned down earlier this off-season.

The Vinatieri Curse?

Word out of Indianapolis is that Adam Vinatieri has a broken bone in his left foot. The team reports it as being a ligament injury, and that the future Hall-of-Fame kicker is day-to-day. His mother isn't so sure, and calls it a "week-to-week" situation.

My first-hand knowledge of how the New Englanders mind tends to work tells me that if Vinatieri's injury lingers, there will be talk of Vinatieri being "cursed" for leaving New England for Indianapolis, their conference rival. Not a week goes by where a Patriots fan doesn't paint Vinatieri as a greedy player, who took more money despite his cult-hero status here in the Boston area.

That's nonsense. New England decided that it was too costly to place the franchise tag on Vinatieri, and allowed him to hit the open market. They had an interest in bringing him back, but despite nearly $20M in cap room, they weren't offering any guaranteed money. Indianapolis, who couldn't bring Mike Vanderjagt back without enciting a riot, quickly pounced and gave Vinatieri a contract that gave him the guaranteed money he'd been looking for.

The only thing that matters in an NFL contract is guaranteed money. Vinatieri got $3.5M in guaranteed money from Indianapolis. New England was offering about $3.499999M less than that.

It was a no-brainer for Vinatieri, and a mistake by the Patriots front office.

No curse necessary.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Sports Illustrated Previews the 2006 NFL Season (and enters Stage 3 of the NFL's Substance Abuse Policy)

If you don't have a subscription, Sports Illustrated predicts that the Carolina Panthers will defeat the Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl XLI.

Now, it's entirely possible that the Panthers will get there. They have a great head coach and a very tough defense. They will be playing "playoff-caliber" football all season long in the rough and tumble NFC South, and if they stay healthy, they're as good a bet as anyone to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

But Miami? Does Sports Illustrated actually believe that the Dolphins will win the AFC East, beat the Ravens in an AFC Wild Card game before heading off on the road to beat Pittsburgh and Indianapolis? They sure do! Where's Crockett & Tubbs when we really need them?

We all know that these predictions are meaningless, but it doesn't appear SI has put any thought into them. Everyone in the NFC East finishes 9-7? Buffalo finishes with a better record than Arizona? St. Louis finishes with a better record than San Diego?

Has whoever made these predictions ever even watched a football game?




Palmer Clears First Hurdle

As I mentioned in my preview of the 2006 Cincinnati Bengals, how far they go rests squarely on the surgically-repaired knee of Carson Palmer.

After last night, Palmer appears ready to take them back to the playoffs. In his first action since being "von Oelhoffened" last January, Palmer was 9-14 for 140 yards and tossed 3 touchdown passes. After initially appearing slightly uncomfortable in the pocket, Palmer quickly settled down and began playing like his old self. He even took off for an 11-yard scramble, which likely raised Marvin Lewis' heartrate quicker than those late night calls from local sheriffs do. But that scramble is a sign that Palmer is back.

The issue with Palmer wasn't whether or not he was physically ready to play, it was whether or not he was mentally ready to return. And last night, Palmer showed that he was indeed to read. Carson Palmer will be the team's starting quarterback when the Bengals open up the regular season in Kansas City on September 10th, and that means that Cincinnati is well-equipped to defend their AFC North crown.



Monday, August 28, 2006

NFL News & Notes - August 28th, 2006

Jason Whitlock (of the Kansas City Star and ESPN) must be the happiest guy in KC tonight, as word comes out of Oakland that the Raiders have signed 39-year old Jeff George to a contract.

George has been out of the NFL since he rode the pine for a few games with the Bears in 2004, and his last tenure as a starting quarterback was with Minnesota in 1999. His one season with the Vikings happened to be his most productive season in the NFL, and one of his targets from that season was Randy Moss, who is now in Oakland.

The quarterback position in Oakland appeared settled, albeit temporarily, before today's events. Aaron Brooks (like George, a wildly inconsistent QB) was signed in the off-season after being released by New Orleans, and he was to be backed up by Andrew Walter (whom the team really likes) and Marques Tuiasosopo was to be the 3rd QB. The signing of George means that Tuiasosopo, who had 4 different offensive coordinators in his 5 years in Oakland, will likely be on the team's list of cuts, which are due tomorrow.

Speaking of Erratic Quarterbacks....

Kerry Collins has signed a 1-year contract with the Tennessee Titans. Collins, whose entering his 13th season in the NFL, spent the summer in the NFL's unemployment line, but was always expected to be signed by someone to serve as an insurance policy before the start of the season.

What does this mean for Billy Volek? Probably nothing, though it's being reported that the Titans are "shopping" him around the league. Vince Young hasn't demonstrated that he's ready to start for an NFL team, and neither has Matt Mauck, the team's 3rd QB.

For now, I expect Collins to serve as the #3 QB while he learns the offensive scheme. If Volek were to be injured, Collins could step in and start, or most likely serve as Young's backup.

The Eagles Get a New WR

The biggest question mark on the Philadelphia Eagles roster was the wide receiver position. Have they answered that by acquiring Donte Stallworth from the New Orleans Saints for linebacker Mark Simoneau (and a conditional 4th round pick in 2007)?

Possibly.

Stallworth is coming off his most consistent season as a pro, and given the circumstances under which the Saints were forced to play in 2005, that's no small accomplishment. It'll take him some time to learn the offense, and to jell with Donovan McNabb. Stallworth possesses the ability to run after the catch, and in the Iggle's west coast-style of offense, he could become a legitimate #1 WR.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Breaking Down the Lelie/Duckett Trade

Breaking down the Ashley Lelie/TJ Duckett trade:

Winner: Denver

The Broncos will reportedly receive two mid-round draft choices for Lelie, a former 1st round pick whose time in Denver could only be described as "inconsistent". Lelie has the ability to make big plays (his career yards per catch average is 17.9, which is great), but he's never made those plays with any regularity. Aside from his "breakout" season in 2004 (54-1084-20.1 w/7 TDs), Lelie never produced at a level high enough to warrant the #1 WR status he felt he deserved.

Denver will also receive back some of Lelie's original signing bonus, as well as some cash from the fines Lelie accrued while holding out of training camp. The total dollar amount could be in the $500K area.

Loser: Atlanta

Yes, the injury to Brian Finneran left the Falcons without a reliable #3 WR. But in Atlanta, does the #3 receiver even matter? Atlanta's bread & butter was the run, and while Warrick Dunn is the starter, and carries most of the load, he's 31 years old and it was Duckett (6-0, 254) who the team turned to when the tough, short yards on 3rd down or near the goal line.

Let's also not forget that Atlanta now has three (3) former 1st round picks at WR (Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, Ashley Lelie), as well as Alge Crumpler, a 3-time Pro Bowler at tight end. With Michael Vick at QB (the 1st overall pick in 2001), what will the excuses be this year if the passing game again finishes near the bottom of the NFL in 2006?

Why?: Washington

Nobody should be surprised that Washington spent two draft choices to acquire TJ Duckett, who is a free agent after this season. In the Daniel Snyder Era, the draft hasn't been as important to Washington as it is to other teams. However, one has to wonder if the acquisition of Duckett is a sign that Clinton Portis' shoulder injury is one the team expects to linger throughout 2006.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

NFC Team-by-Team Previews

NFC East

New York Giants
Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North

Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers

To see the AFC Previews, click here.

Seattle Seahawks - 2006 NFL Preview

Alas, we've come to the end of our virtual tour of each NFL team, ending with the defending NFC Champs, the Seattle Seahawks.

2005 Record:
13-3 (1st in NFC West); Lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XL.

2005 Rankings
Offense:
2nd (14th pass; 3rd run)
Defense: 16th (25th pass; 5th run)

Head Coach: Mike Holmgren (138-86, 11-9 in post-season); Entering 15th season as NFL head coach. Was in Green Bay from 1992-1998 (75-37, 9-5 in post-season; Took the Packers to the Super Bowl in 1996 and 1997, winning Super Bowl XXXI), and has coached Seattle from 1999-present (63-49, 2-4 in post-season, including a loss in Super Bowl XL).

2006 Draft Class

1.31- CB, Kelly Jennings (Miami)
2.63 – DE, Darryl Tapp (Virginia Tech)
4.128 – G, Rob Sims (Ohio State)
5.163 – FB, David Kirtman (USC)
7.239 – P, Ryan Plackemeier (Wake Forest)
7.249 – WR, Ben Obomanu (Auburn)

Arrivals

Nate Burleson, WR (Minnesota)
Julian Peterson, LB (San Francisco)
Mike Green, S (Chicago)
Tom Ashworth, OL (New England)

Departures

Steve Hutchinson, G (Minnesota)
Marquand Manuel, S (Green Bay)
Joe Jurevicius, WR (Cleveland)
Andre Dyson, CB (NY Jets)
Ryan Hannam, TE (Dallas)
Russell Davis, DT (Arizona)
Tom Rouen, P (San Francisco)

Team Overview

2005 was a year spent exorcising demons in Seattle. The Seahawks won the NFC West in 2004, but were swept by the Rams during the regular season and in the NFC Wild Card playoff game in Qwest Field. Seattle returned the favor in 2005, sweeping the Rams, and for good measure, the Cardinals and 49ers, too. When injuries knocked both starting wide receivers (Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram) out of the lineup for a month, the team everyone called “soft” shrugged and went on an impressive 11 game winning streak. There was a different feeling around this team the entire year. When Seattle pulled victories from the jaws of defeat against Dallas and the New York Giants, the Seahawks appeared to be a team that had a date with destiny.

After not winning a playoff game since 1984, everyone wondered if they’d see the “Same Ol’ Seahawks” in January. When Shaun Alexander, the league’s MVP, was concussed against Washington, Matt Hasselbeck tossed the team onto his back and they rode his arm, as well as a suffocating defense, to victory. When Carolina came into Seattle fresh off resounding victories on the road against the Giants and Bears, many predicted the end of Seattle’s magical run. The Seahawks responded by pressuring Jake Delhomme into three interceptions in a 34-14 blowout that sent Seattle to Super Bowl XL.

Like all successful NFL teams, the Seahawks lost some key components from their Super Bowl team this off-season. Minnesota was able to wrangle All-Pro left guard Steve Hutchinson away with a $49M, poison-pill laden contract offer Seattle couldn’t match. Joe Jurevicius took less money to return home to Cleveland, and Marquand Manuel couldn’t pass up an opportunity to start in Green Bay.

No player could be brought in to replace Hutchinson, but depth at offensive line has been one of Seattle’s strength in recent years. Expect Pork Chop Womack, Chris Spencer or rookie Rob Sims to man the left guard position this year. The offensive line appears to be in great shape, with All-World left tackle Walter Jones at left tackle, Robbie Tobeck coming off a Pro Bowl season at center, Chris Gray at right guard and last year’s biggest surprise, Sean Locklear at right tackle.

Seattle will definitely miss Joe Jurevicius, but they’ve added a more “dynamic” receiver when they signed Nate Burleson, a Seattle-area native to their own “poison-pill” laced contract offer. Though Darrell Jackson hasn’t yet practiced following off-season knee surgery, Seattle expects him back for the regular season. He’ll start, as will Burleson and Bobby Engram, as Seattle often uses 3-WR sets. Peter “P-Dub” Warrick and DJ Hackett round out the group, which is better than the sum of its part. Hackett made some brilliant catches in 2005, and Warrick appears to be 100% following knee surgery in 2004. The tight ends took a hit when Jerramy Stevens re-injured his surgically repaired knee last week, and he’s expected to miss the first month of the season. Itula Mili showed up in shape this year, and is expected to start after a season where an intestinal blockage kept him out of the lineup.

Shaun Alexander is coming off a storybook season. He led the NFL in rushing, broke the single-season rushing touchdown record, was named league MVP and signed an 8-year, $62M mega-contract. Oh, and he’s this year’s cover boy for the most popular video game in history, Madden 2007. Not a bad year for #37. Though he’s at times been labeled as being selfish, Alexander has been saying and doing the right things in camp. He appears ready to be a leader, and he’s always been the type of player who sets seemingly unattainable goals for himself. That obsession with numbers may appear selfish, but if Alexander reaches them, chances are Seattle is winning football games. Behind Alexander is Maurice Morris, who is a good change-of-pace back, and is a more polished receiver than Alexander. Mack Strong finally was sent to the Pro Bowl in 2005, and he returns for another year showing no signs of slowing down. The most intriguing running back on the roster is 2nd year fullback, Leonard Weaver, who was an undrafted free agent from Division II Carson-Newman, where he played tight end. In limited duty, Weaver has shown the ability to run inside and possesses one of the fiercest stiff-arms around. He’s also being looked at as a kick returner, and at 6-0, 251 pounds, he’d be the biggest kick returner I’ve ever seen.

Alexander may be the league’s MVP, but Matt Hasselbeck is the team’s MVP. Hasselbeck is one of the few elite QBs in the NFL, and has this offense running like a well-oiled machine. He’s the team’s unquestioned leader, and as he goes, so do the Seahawks. Backing up Hasselbeck is probably the team’s best athlete, Seneca Wallace. Perhaps best known for his amazing over-the-shoulder reception during the NFL Championship game, Seattle has seen enough of Wallace as a quarterback to resist the urge to convert him to a wide receiver/punt returner.

The one area Seattle desperately needed to improve upon heading into 2005 was putting pressure on the quarterback. Last year, Seattle led the NFL in that category, and they did it by getting production from unlikely sources. Bryce Fisher was brought in to rush the QB, and he led the team with 9 sacks. That was expected. What wasn’t expected were the seasons that DT Rocky Bernard (8.5 sacks), Marcus Tubbs (5.5) and getting a combined 11.5 sacks out of a pair of undersized rookie linebackers, Lofa Tatupu and LeRoy Hill.

Tatupu (2nd round) and Hill (3rd round) were the steals of the 2005 draft, and both will return as experienced veterans in 2006. Seattle added LB Julian Peterson in the off-season, and Peterson-Tatupu-Hill are one of the best linebacking units in the NFL. Peterson gives the Seahawks a bonafide weapon on defense.

The defensive line returns everyone from 2005, with last year’s starting lineup of Grant Wistrom, Bryce Fisher, Chuck Darby and Rocky Bernard expected to once again start on opening day. Marcus Tubbs, Craig Terrill and free agent DT Russell Davis will be rotated in frequently. Wistrom and Fisher saw significant playing time in 2005, and they’ll be rested a bit with Darryl Tapp and Julian Peterson playing some defensive end on obvious passing downs.

The secondary lost Marquand Manuel, who stepped in and played very well when Ken Hamlin was lost for the season following a fight outside a Seattle nightclub. Hamlin is back, and is hoping to pick up where he left off before the head injury suffered last October. Michael Boulware starts opposite Hamlin, but has been slowed by injuries this summer. Michael Green was acquired from Chicago, and he is expected to play a lot in 2006. Marcus Trufant is hoping that finally being healthy heading into a season will translate into better play, and he’ll start on the right side. Kelly Herndon appears to have won his training camp battle with this year’s 1st round pick, Kelly Jennings, who will play immediately as the nickel corner. Jordan Babineaux, nicknamed “Big Play Babs” for his knack for making impact plays last year, provides great versatility in the secondary. When Herndon and Dyson were slowed by injuries, Babineaux, a safety in college, started at cornerback. He’ll be used in dime coverages, and has the experience necessary to back up at every position.

Until someone proves otherwise, Seattle is still the team to beat in the NFC. They’re the most talented team in the conference, and there’s virtually no chance that Mike Holmgren will let them go into the new season without understanding that 2005 is in the past, and that they start 2006 at the base of the mountain.

Three & Out

- Lofa Tatupu became just the 3rd rookie linebacker in NFL history to start all 16 regular season games and 3 playoff games, and the 1st rookie linebacker to post 3+ interceptions and 3+ sacks in a season. The only thing that eluded Tatupu last year was the league’s Defensive Rookie of the Year award. Way to go, voters!

- Don’t underestimate the impact Joe Jurevicius will have on the receivers. Seattle wideouts caught 20 TD passes in 2005, half of them courtesy of Jurevicius. His sure-handedness and impeccable practice habits rubbed off on his teammates, and Seattle eliminated the “dropsies” they had become synonymous with.

- The road to Super Bowl XLI might once again go through Seattle. With a weak slate of divisional games, Seattle also plays one of the NFL’s weakest schedules. If Seattle takes care of business, and clinches home-field advantage in January, it’ll be very tough for any other other contenders to unseat them.

Fantasy Island

Two words: Shaun Alexander. 1,900 yards and 29 TDs don’t disappear because a left guard signed somewhere else.

Ok, maybe he’ll only have 1,500 yards and 20 TDs, but is that really not enough?

Monday, August 21, 2006

St. Louis Rams - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 6-10 (2nd in NFC West)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 6th (2nd pass; 22nd run)
Defense: 30th (23rd pass; 28th run)

Head Coach: Scott Linehan (0-0); Entering 1st season as NFL head coach

2006 Draft Class

1.15 – CB, Tye Hill (Clemson)
2.46 – TE, Joe Klopfenstein (Colorado)
3.68 – DT, Claude Wroten (LSU)
3.77 – LB, Jon Alston (Stanford)
3.93 – TE, Domonique Byrd (USC)
4.113 – DE, Victor Adeyanju (Indiana)
5.144 – WR, Marques Hagans (Virginia)
7.221 – LB, Tim McGarigle (Northwestern)
7.242 – OG, Mark Setterstrom (Minnesota)
7.243 – OG, Tony Palmer (Missouri)

Arrivals

Scott Linehan, head coach (Miami – offensive coordinator)
Jim Haslett, defensive coordinator (New Orleans – head coach)
Fakhir Brown, CB (New Orleans)
Corey Chavous, S (Minnesota)
Tony Fisher, RB (Green Bay)
Jason Fisk, DT (Cleveland)
Gus Frerotte, QB (Miami)
La’Roi Glover, DT (Dallas)
Will Witherspoon, LB (Carolina)


Departures

Adam Archuleta, S (Washington)
Marshall Faulk, RB (retired)
Mike Martz, head coach (Detroit – offensive coordinator)
Joe Vitt, head coach
Tyoka Jackson, DE (Detroit)
Chris Johnson, CB (Kansas City)
Ryan Pickett, DT (Green Bay)
Rex Tucker, OG (Detroit)

Team Overview

2005 couldn’t have unfolded much worse for the Rams. Mike Martz and Marc Bulger were healthy for just half the season, the offensive line was in shambles and the defense continued was one of the worst in the NFL.

Scott Linehan, the former Vikings and Dolphins offensive coordinator, has been hired to replace Mike Martz, who is now coordinating the offense in Detroit. Linehan and Martz both like to throw the ball deep, but the major difference between the two coaches is Linehan’s offense places more value on the ground game. With Marc Bulger coming off shoulder injuries last year, and Steven Jackson now firmly entrenched as the starting running back, that’s good news for Rams fans.

The offensive line will also benefit from Linehan’s system. Martz often sent everyone out on pass routes, but Linehan’s will keep a tight end or back in to block. The interior of the line isn’t that talented, and those who are talented are up there in NFL years, but Alex Barron and Orlando Pace are solid bookend tackles. Pace earned Pro Bowl honors following the 2005 season.

The only other Pro Bowler for St. Louis is Torry Holt, who is pound-for-pound, the best wide receiver in the NFL. Despite playing with 3 different quarterbacks in 2005, Holt posted 102 receptions, 1300+ yards and 9 scores. No amount of unrest at the QB position is going to keep Holt’s numbers down. The wide receiving crew is pretty deep. Isaac Bruce returns for one more go ‘round, and Kevin Curtis emerged with a 60-catch season. Shaun McDonald is the #4 WR. With Linehan now running things, the tight end will actually be expected to produce, so the team drafted two solid tight ends in April’s draft (Joe Klopfenstein and Dominique Byrd) and they’re both right at the top of the depth chart.

St. Louis used free agency to provide some instant upgrades on defense. La’Roi Glover was signed to plug the middle, and he’s familiar with Jim Haslett from his days in New Orleans. Fakhir Brown is another Haslett guy, and he’s been brought in to solidify the CB position. Corey Chavous provides some veteran leadership at safety, as well as a possible college scout come next April’s draft. Will Witherspoon, a talented linebacker whose just coming into his prime, was signed away from the Carolina Panthers. The defense isn’t very deep, nor is it very big, but they do have some speed and should improve over last year’s 30th ranking.

After being the class of the NFC West in 2004, the Rams plummeted back to Earth in a hurry. I don’t expect much of a climb this year, but they should be a more disciplined, more balanced and all-around better team than they were in 2005. 8-8 is a definite possibility.

Three & Out

- When the Rams lost both Marc Bulger and his backup Jamie Martin to injury last year, they had no choice but to turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick (a 2005 7th round pick) to play the position. Behind Bulger this year is Gus Frerotte, who has spent much of his career playing in Linehan’s offense.  

- Last year, Rams cornerbacks accounted for just 3 interceptions. DeJuan Groce, who is currently buried on the depth chart, led all CBs with 2. Corey Ivy, who is now in Baltimore, added the other. The team’s leader in picks was Mike Furrey, a wide receiver who was converted to safety. Furrey snagged 4 interceptions, and is currently back playing wide receiver…in Detroit. That should help explain why Fakhir Brown and Corey Chavous were signed, and why the team spent a 1st round pick on Tye Hill, a CB from Clemson.  

- Few would argue with the dismissal of Mike Martz, but one shouldn’t forget that Martz led the Rams to a 53-32 record from 2000-2005, won 4 NFC West titles and guided them to Super Bowl XXXVI.  He’ll be a head coach again real soon.

Fantasy Island

One comment from the NFL Networks’ Marshall Faulk really stood out to me. They were discussing the Rams offense, more specifically how it would be different under Scott Linehan. Faulk let out a “finally” after it was mentioned that the Rams will run the football more in 2006.  

Steven Jackson is 6-2, weighs 233 pounds and is entering just his 3rd season in the NFL. Get him running downhill, and he’s nearly impossible. Running behind a “blocking-challenged” offensive line last year didn’t faze Jackson, as he put up over 1,000 yards and averaged 4.1 per carry. I do expect 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns out of Jackson in 2006.  












Arizona Cardinals - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 5-11 (3rd in NFC West)

2005 Rankings
Offense:
7th (1st pass; 32nd run)
Defense: 8th (12th pass; 10th run)

Head Coach: Dennis Green (108-83, 4-8 in post-season); Entering 13th season as NFL head coach (Minnesota 1992-2001); Entering 3rd season as Arizona Cardinals head coach.

2006 Draft Class

1.10 – QB, Matt Leinart (USC)
2.41 – G, Taitusi Lutui (USC)
3.73 – TE, Leonard Pope (Georgia)
4.107 – DT, Gabe Watson (Michigan)
5.142 – LB, Brandon Johnson (Louisville)
6.177 – DT, Jon Lewis (Virginia Tech)
7.218 – WR, Todd Watkins (BYU)

Arrivals

Edgerrin James, RB (Indianapolis)
Milford Brown, G (Houston)
Kendrick Clancy, DT (NY Giants)

Departures

Josh McCown, QB (Detroit)
Russell Davis, DT (Seattle)
Quentin Harris, S (NY Giants)

Team Overview

The Arizona Cardinals failed to live up to the lofty expectations many had for them in 2005. Many predicted the Cardinals would win the NFC West, and were definitely playoff-caliber. For the 17th time in the 18 years the Cardinals have played in Arizona, the Cardinals failed to crack the .500 mark, finishing 5-11 and well out of playoff contention.

This year, the expectations are again high, as the Cardinals open up a state-of-the-art stadium. From the outside, it looks like a spaceship. That’s appropriate, especially since winning football games in the desert is an alien concept. Since making the move from St. Louis, Arizona has gone 100-188, and made one (1) trip to the playoffs.

To change the franchises fortunes, the Cardinals have signed former Indianapolis Colts running back Edgerrin James to lucrative contract. After ranking dead last in rushing a year ago, Dennis Green hopes that James can give the running game a boost and take some pressure of their passing game, which ranked #1 in the NFL in 2005.

Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are as good a wide receiving duo as you’ll find in the NFL, and with former league MVP Kurt Warner at QB, ranking #1 shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Don’t be fooled by the numbers, though. The Cardinals ranked #1 in passing because more often than not, they were trailing and couldn’t afford to even attempt to run the ball.

Edgerrin James does give them something that they’ve been missing the last few years. He’s a strong runner, is adept at picking up blitzing defenders, and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. He’d be even more effective if the Cardinals could actually block someone for him.

The defense also ranked in the Top 10…in yardage. When it came to allowing opponents to score, Arizona didn’t fare too well. Some of that can be attributed to opponents playing on such a short field, but some of that can also be attributed to sloppy play. This unit has built up talent through the draft (Antrell Rolle, Darnell Dockett, Karlos Dansby) and free agency (Chike Okeafor, Bert Berry). The question is whether or not this unit can play together and reach its potential.

Arizona is once again the chic pick in the NFC. The perception is that the conference is weak, the division could be theirs if Seattle suffers the “Super Bowl loser” slump, etc…With the talent that the Cardinals have one can see where the optimism comes from.

But the offensive line and the linebackers are, to me, not good enough to get this team into the tournament. They can win 8-9 games, and they probably will. But is Arizona headed for the playoffs? I don’t think so.

Three & Out

- Arizona will be happy to have DE Bertrand Berry back this year. Berry was injured for much of 2005, where he was coming off his first trip to the Pro Bowl. Beyond Berry and Chike OKeafor, and tackles Darnell Dockett and Kendrick Clancy, the defensive line isn’t deep enough to absorb a significant injury.

- Since guiding the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2001, Kurt Warner has played in 29 games, never more than 10 in any season. During that stretch, Warner has thrown 21 touchdown passes, and 25 interceptions. With the Cardinals offensive line shaky at best, they’d better get Matt Leinart ready to play, ASAP.

- Watched quite a bit of the Cardinals-Patriots game the other night, and the one thing that amazed me was how ordinary this linebacking crew is. They appear to be fast, but they missed quite a few tackles and looked absolutely lost in pass coverage. On paper, this is a talented group. The reality might be much different.

Fantasy Island

Don’t let the addition of Edgerrin James scare you away from taking an early draft pick on either Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin. They are the strength of this offense, and with James a better decoy than JJ Arrington, they both could put up numbers close to the 100-catch seasons of 2005.

Sunday, August 20, 2006

QB Change in Big D?

Peter King just reported in his halftime segment during the Sunday Night game on NBC that it's possible that Bill Parcells could replace Drew Bledsoe with Tony Romo as the starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys.

King noted that Romo is yet to throw a pass in an NFL game, but Dallas loved his accuracy, mobility and leadership qualities.

He's accurate onpasses he hasn't thrown yet?
He's showed leadership abilities, despite not playing a second of an NFL game?

With issues where there's smoke (Romo did play the entire pre-season game in Seattle), there's not necessarily fire. And I think this is a prime example of that.

Dallas has a legitimate opportunity to win the NFC East. If Terrell Owens ever decides he wants to be an NFL football player and stops babying his hamstring and practices, this is a team that could go deep into the NFC playoffs. Going with an untested, unproven QB, whose never played in an NFL game, would virtually guarantee a non-playoff season in Dallas.

Jets Acquire Barlow From 49ers

With the prospects of Curtis Martin returning from a knee injury growing dimmer each day, the New York Jets have sent an undisclosed 2007 draft choice to the San Francisco 49ers for running back Kevan Barlow.

As I mentioned earlier today in my 49ers preview, Frank Gore is the more effective runner. Obviously, someone in the 49ers front office agreed with me.



San Francisco 49ers - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 4-12 (4th in NFC West)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 32nd (32nd pass; 17th run)
Defense: 32nd (32nd pass; 18th run)

Head Coach: Mike Nolan (4-12); Entering 2nd season as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers.    

2006 Draft Class

1.6 – TE, Vernon Davis (Maryland)
1.22 – DE, Manny Lawson (NC State)
3.84 – WR, Brandon Williams (Wisconsin)
4.100 – WR, Michael Robinson (Penn State)
5.140 – DE, Parys Henderson (Tennessee)
6.175 – WR, Delanie Walker (Central Missouri State)
6.192 – DB, Marcus Hudson (NC State)
6.197 – DE, Melvin Oliver (LSU)
7.254 – DB, Vickiel Vaughn (Arkansas)

Arrivals
Trent Dilfer, QB (Cleveland)
Larry Allen, G (Dallas)
Antonio Bryant, WR (Cleveland)
Walt Harris, CB (Washington)
Chad Williams, S (Baltimore)
Taylor Jacobs, WR (Washington)

Departures

Julian Peterson, LB (Seattle)
Andre Carter, DE (Washington)
Brandon Lloyd, WR (Washington)
Fred Beasley, FB (Miami)
Anthony Clement, OT (NY Jets)
Chris Cooper, DT (Seattle)
Johnnie Morton, WR (released)
Ahmed Plummer, CB

Team Overview

From 1983 to 1998, the San Francisco 49ers were the most dominant franchise in the NFL. Every new season brought with it the expectation that the teams’ final game would be played on the game’s biggest stage. Those days are well in the past, as the 49ers have endured losing campaigns in 5 of the last 7 seasons.

Losing in 2005 was to be expected. Mike Nolan came in to replace the ineffective Dennis Erickson, and the team was installing a new defense and offense with the same personnel, which led to them being more aptly named the San Francisco 32nds. Nolan’s crew finished dead last in the NFL in both offense and defense, but despite those lowly rankings, the 49ers did double their win total from 2004.

In the off-season, San Francisco continued the roster overhaul. For a rebuilding team, Julian Peterson’s price tag was too great, and he went north to division rival Seattle. The defense also lost Andre Carter to the Washington Redskins. Also going to Washington was the team’s most talented, and most erratic, wide receiver, Brandon Lloyd.

The offense has been turned over to the 1st pick of the 2005 draft, QB Alex Smith. Behind him, the 49ers smartly brought in a competent backup, local boy Trent Dilfer. The former Fresno State star did wonders for Matt Hasselbeck’s career in Seattle, and he’s expected to be ready to play if needed, but mostly to show Smith what it takes to be an NFL quarterback. Kevan Barlow and Frank Gore return as the top 2 running backs. Gore is the more effective runner, but Barlow is expected to start. The disparity in per carry average (Barlow’s 3.3 to Gore’s 4.8) displays the difference in each runner’s styles. Barlow needs holes to run through, while Gore just runs over people. The offensive line received a boost with the addition of Larry Allen, though his best days are well behind him. Jonas Jennings and Kwame Harris are above average tackles, and Justin Smiley is an emerging talent at right guard. The major question mark for the 49ers is at center, with Jeremy Newberry expected to miss the entire 2006 season.

The receiving crew is much different than last year’s. Newly acquired WR Antonio Bryant and Arnaz Battle will be the starters, with Rasheed Marshall, Bryan Gilmore and Brandon Williams providing depth. The 49ers will welcome back tight end Eric Johnson to the mix, but the most intriguing receiving option may be Vernon Davis. A freakish athlete, whose combination of size and speed make him nearly impossible to cover. He’s expected to make an immediate and significant impact in his rookie season.

Coach Nolan came to the Bay Area from Baltimore, and last year began the transformation from a 4-3 to a 3-4 alignment. While the trio of the ageless Bryant Young along with Anthony Adams and Marques Douglas are solid, they don’t have much depth beyond them. The key to the 3-4 defense is the linebackers, and San Francisco has 2 solid and smart inside ‘backers (Derek Smith and Jeff Ulbrich). On the outside, they’ll start Brandon Moore and the latter of the team’s two 1st round picks, Manny Lawson, who starred alongside Houston’s Mario Williams at North Carolina State. As with the front line, this group also lacks depth.

The secondary is an issue of concern for San Francisco, especially in a division with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram and Darrell Jackson. Shawntae Spencer has reportedly had a great camp, and they’ve got some veteran cornerbacks (Walt Harris, Sammy Davis), but overall, this is a talented group. Tony Parrish is the leader of the group, but the rest of the safeties are a collection of street and undrafted free agents.

The last 7 seasons have been nothing short of a nightmare for 49ers fans. Being 2-12 in December is not something they’d like to be accustomed to, and while the 49ers appear heading in the right direction, another 4-5 win season seems likely.  

Three & Out

- The 49ers must’ve been privately chuckling when the Redskins traded for Brandon Lloyd and through Top 10 WR money at him. Lloyd may have talent, but he’s never caught more than 50 passes in a single season. He makes the occasional acrobatic reception, but he’s not the consistent receiver the Redskins contract offer will pay him to be.  

- You’ve got to be rooting for Eric Johnson to come back strong from a lost 2005 season. With Vernon Davis in the mix, the former 7th round draft pick out of Yale likely won’t duplicate his 82-reception season in 2004. Still, remaining healthy and productive would be a good sign for a player who has missed two of the last three seasons due to injury.

- To say that Alex Smith struggled as a rookie would be an understatement. He threw just 1 touchdown pass, and turned the ball over an astounding 13 times (11 interceptions, 2 fumbles). His 40.8 QB rating was low, even when compared to other QBs playing in their 1st season. But Smith has talent, and with a veteran backup (Dilfer), and some more dependable receivers (Bryant, Davis, Johnson), Smith should improve in 2006. If his performance against Chicago in the first pre-season game is any indication, Smith’s 2006 will be light years ahead of hiss 2005.

Fantasy Island

I wouldn’t depend on any 49er to have much of a fantasy impact in 2006. They’re simply not very good just yet. But I would take a late round pick on Frank Gore, who led the 49ers in rushing in 2005 despite being behind Kevan Barlow on the depth chart.  
















Friday, August 18, 2006

Carolina Panthers - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 11-5 (2nd in NFC South). Lost to Seattle, 34-14, in NFC Championship game.

2005 Rankings
Offense: 22nd (16th pass; 19th run)
Defense: 3rd (9th pass; 4th run)

Head Coach: John Fox (36-28, 5-2 in post-season); Entering 5th season as Carolina Panthers Head Coach.

2006 Draft Class

1.27 – RB, DeAngelo Williams (Memphis)
2.58 – DB, Richard Marshall (Fresno State)
3.88 – LB, James Anderson (Virginia Tech)
3.89 – OT, Rashad Butler (Miami)
4.121 – DB, Nate Salley (Ohio State)
5.155 – TE, Jeff King (Virginia Tech)
7.234 – OG, Will Montgomery (Virginia Tech)
7.237 – DE, Stanley McClover (Auburn)

Arrivals

Keith Adams, LB (Philadelphia)
Na’il Diggs, LB (Green Bay)
Justin Hartwig, C (Tennessee)
Keyshawn Johnson, WR (Dallas)
Reggie Howard, CB (Miami)
Maake Kemoeatu, DT (Baltimore)
Damione Lewis, DT (St. Louis)
Kevin Macadam, S (Atlanta)
Shaun Williams, S (NY Giants)

Departures

Idrees Bashir, S (Detroit)
Ricky Manning, Jr., CB (Chicago)
Marlon McCree, S (San Diego)
Tutan Reyes, OG (Buffalo)
Brandon Short, LB (NY Giants)
Dante Wesley, S (Chicago)
Will Witherspoon, LB (St. Louis)
Kemp Rasmussen, DE (Seattle)
Brentson Buckner, DT (released)
Stephen Davis, RB (released)
Ricky Proehl, WR (not re-signed)
Jeff Saturday, C (not re-signed)


Team Overview

Energized by two convincing road victories in the playoffs, the Carolina Panthers were predicted by many to make their 2nd trip to the Super Bowl in three seasons. Carolina, already playing without Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster, lost Nick Goings in the 1st half in the NFC Championship game, and Seattle became the first team all season to bottle up Steve Smith, as they easily defeated the Panthers, 34-14.

Carolina enters 2006 with some new faces on offense. Justin Hartwig was signed to replace an aging Jeff Saturday at center, and Keyshawn Johnson was brought to give the Panthers the sure-handed veteran receiver the offense lacked when Muhsin Muhammed signed with the Chicago Bears before the 2005 season. Steve Smith is coming off an incredible season, one where he shared the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award with New England’s Tedy Bruschi. The addition of Johnson, and the feeling that 3rd year receivers Drew Carter and Keary Colbert will become more involved in the offense, should make the Panthers less reliant on their ground attack.

After consistently losing running backs to injury, Carolina spent its 1st round pick in 2006 on DeAngelo Williams, a highly talented running back from Memphis. DeShaun Foster was re-signed in the off-season, but Williams should expect to see plenty of action in his rookie season.

Carolina made some changes to their 3rd-ranked defense. Ma’ake Kemoeatu, a free agent from Baltimore, was brought in to replace Brentson Buckner at defensive tackle. Will Witherspoon and Brandon Short left via free agency, so Carolina signed a pair of free agent linebackers (Na’il Diggs and Keith Adams) to replace them, and last year’s 1st round pick, Thomas Davis, is expected to move into the starting lineup.

The secondary wasn’t ignored, either. With Ricky Manning, the team’s nickel cornerback last year, signing with the Chicago Bears, Carolina drafted Richard Marshall out of Fresno State, and brought in Reggie Howard from the Miami Dolphins for depth. Shaun Williams, who played under John Fox in New York, was brought to man the safety spot vacated by Marlon McCree.

Most NFL observers are predicting a Super Bowl season from the Panthers. I’m not that optimistic. They’re a very solid team, and if they stay healthy, they should win their divisions or at least make the playoffs. Carolina has a very tough schedule, play in a very competitive division, so I'm not so sure their playoff path in 2006 will be much different than it was in 2005. And that's not a good thing for their Super Bowl hopes.

Three & Out

- The defense may not have lost one of its leaders, but it did lose its top two tacklers. Marlon McCree (88) and Will Witherspoon (81) both departed through free agency.

- One area the defense won’t be lacking production is QB sacks. Carolina posted 45 of them in 2005, and got impressive seasons out of reserve DL Al Wallace (5 sacks) and Kindal Moorehead (5 sacks). Julius Peppers is the model of consistency. You know that Peppers is good for 10+ sacks in any season he stays moderately healthy in.

- Ken Lucas was one of the best free agent acquisitions in the 2005 off-season. Lucas was coming off a career year in Seattle, and cashed in with a mega-contract from the Panthers. He rewarded them by having a 6-interception season, and deserved more Pro Bowl consideration than he ultimately received. He’s gone from marginal starter to sure-fire Pro Bowler in just two short seasons.

Fantasy Island

When Steve Smith’s 2004 season last just one game, it was unclear whether or not he’d get back to his receiving totals from his breakout 2003 season (88-1110-7).

Well, Smith shattered those numbers, putting up 103 receptions, 1500 yards, 12 touchdowns, and more creative end zone celebrations than anyone not named Chad Johnson.

Expect more of the same in 2006, even with Keyshawn Johnson stealing receptions from him. Smith is the heart & soul of this offense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 11-5 (1st in NFC South). Lost to Washington, 17-10, in NFC Wild Card playoff game.

2005 Rankings
Offense: 23rd (24th pass; 14th run)
Defense: 1st (6th pass; 6th run)

Head Coach: Jon Gruden (73-55, 5-3 in post-season); Entering 9th season as NFL Head Coach (1998-2001 w/Oakland, 2002-present w/Tampa Bay), and won Super Bowl XXXVII in his 1st season with Tampa Bay.  

2006 Draft Class

1.23 – G, Davin Joseph (Oklahoma)
2.59 – T, Jeremy Trueblood (Boston College)
3.90 – WR, Maurice Stovall (Notre Dame)
4.122 – CB, Alan Zemaitis (Penn State)
5.156 – DE, Julian Jenkins (Stanford)
6.194 – QB, Bruce Gradkowski (Toledo)
6.202 – TE, TJ Williams (NC State)
7.235 – DB, Justin Phinisee (Oregon)
7.241 – LB, Charles Bennett (Clemson)
7.244 – TE, Tim Massaquoi (Michigan)

Arrivals

David Boston, WR (Miami)
Tonio Fonoti, OG (Minnesota)
Torrin Tucker, OT (Dallas)
Jamie Winborn, LB (Jacksonville)

Departures

Rod Marinelli, defensive assistant (Detroit – Head Coach)
Jameel Cook, FB (Houston)
Brian Griese, QB (Chicago)
Dexter Jackson, S (Cincinnati)
Todd Steussie, OT (St. Louis)


Team Overview

When starting quarterback Brian Griese was forced out of the lineup in Week 6, many predicted that the 4-1 Buccaneers would fold like a cheap suit. After all, how farcould rookie Cadillac Williams and “laissez-faire” QB Chris Simms take this team? The answer, as the NFL would soon find out, was the playoffs.

While Brian Griese is fighting for a starter’s job in Chicago, Chris Simms is firmly entrenched as the Buccaneers starter. The numbers don’t lie: Simms still has a way to go in order for him to take Gruden’s offense to where it was under Rich Gannon during Gruden’s coaching days in Oakland, but all signs point to him being able to get it done.  

Cadillac Williams (who did get banged up and crashed squarely into the “rookie wall”) was the talk of the league last September, as the Bucs rode their 1st round pick to a 4-0 start. Williams inevitably got hurt, hit the rookie wall, and his production fluctuated down the stretch. One game he’d have 100 yards and the next week he was lucky to have 50. They’ll need more consistent production out of Williams, and getting that may depend greatly on Chris Simms and the Bucs receivers (Joey Galloway and Michael Clayton) elevating the passing game. Tampa adds free agent David Boston and rookie Maurice Stovall, two big, physical wideouts, to the passing attack. 2nd-year tight end AJ Smith was a huge surprise in 2005, hauling in 41 receptions and a pair of touchdowns.

The strength in Tampa, and stop me if you’ve heard this before, is the defense. The last time a Tampa Bay defense finished lower than 12th was back in 1995, when Sam Wyche was coaching the orange-and-white clad Buccaneers. All of that success can be attributed to excellent personnel, and one Monte Kiffin. If you look around the NFL, you’ll see a pair of head coaches (Herm Edwards, Rod Marinelli) that were spawned from the defense-oriented Bucs teams of the Tony Dungy era.

While many of the players (Warren Sapp, John Lynch) have moved on, the Buccaneers always do a good job of bringing in replacements. Like Denver’s running attack, it’s all about the system in Tampa. This year, much of last year’s #1-ranked unit returns. Greg Spires, Booger McFarland, Chris Hovan and Simeon Rice are a veteran group up front, and Rice is coming off his 5th consecutive season of double-digit sacks. Rice enters his 12th NFL season with 119 career sacks, and another 10+-sack season will elevate Rice into the Top 10 among the NFL’s all-time sack leaders.

Derrick Brooks, whose gone to 9 straight Pro Bowls, leads the linebackers (Ryan Nece, Shelton Quarles) and Ronde Barber, whose gone to back-to-back Pro Bowls, leads a secondary of Brian Kelly, Jermaine Phillips and Will Allen.

Tampa, like Atlanta and Carolina, play a tough 2006 schedule. The defense is good enough to keep them in every game they’ll play, but they’ll need the offense to play much better if they hope to win another NFC South crown.



Three & Out

- The Buccaneers won’t be “giving Thanks” to the NFL schedule makers, who have scheduled 3 games in 10 days before Thanksgiving. Tampa goes to Carolina for a Monday night game on November 13th before hosting the tough Washington Redskins. Four days later, Tampa heads into Dallas to play on Thanksgiving. The bright side is, they get 10 days off before having to travel to Pittsburgh, the defending Super Bowl champs.

- Joey Galloway returned from an injury-plagued 2004 season to have a career year in 2005. Galloway had 83 receptions, 1287 yards and his first 10 TD season since 1998. How many other WRs entering their 12th NFL season could have a season like that?

- None of them are expected to start in 2006, but after years of less-than-stellar offensive line play, the Bucs brought in some Grade A talent this off-season. Toniu Fonoti is a massive guard, and the team used their first two draft picks on guard Davin Joseph and tackle Jeremy Trueblood. It won’t be long before these three are protecting Simms and paving paths for Cadillac Williams.

Fantasy Island

How can you not love Cadillac Williams? Ok, so he isn’t much of a receiver, but Williams had a very impressive rookie season, and with the expected maturation of Chris Simms, expect a better season this year from Cadillac.














AFC Team-by-Team Previews

AFC East

New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
Buffalo Bills

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans

AFC West

Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
San Diego Chargers
Oakland Raiders

To see the NFC previews, click here.

Atlanta Falcons - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 8-8 (3rd in NFC South)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 13th (28th pass; 1st run)
Defense: 22nd (14th pass; 26th run)

Head Coach: Jim Mora, Jr. (19-13, 1-1 in post-season); Entering 3rd season as Atlanta Falcons Head Coach.  

2006 Draft Class

2.37 – CB, Jimmy Williams (Virginia Tech)
3.79 – RB, Jerious Norwood (Mississippi State)
5.139 – OT, Quinn Ojinnaka (Syracuse)
6.184 – WR, Adam Jennings (Fresno State)
7.223 – QB, DJ Shockley (Georgia)

Arrivals

John Abraham, DE (NY Jets)
Lawyer Milloy, S (Buffalo)
Wayne Gandy, OT (New Orleans)
Chris Crocker, S (Cleveland)

Departures

Kevin Shaffer, OT (Cleveland)
Bryan Scott, DB (New Orleans)
Kevin Macadam, S (Carolina)
Barry Stokes, OL (Detroit)
Keion Carpenter, S (not re-signed)
Brady Smith, DE (released)
Todd Peterson, K (not re-signed)

Team Overview

Heading into the 2004 playoffs, the Atlanta Falcons were the team many predicted would represent the NFC in Super Bowl XXXVIIII. They were energized by their rookie head coach (Jim Mora), they had the league’s best athlete (Vick) and a feared ground attack that led the NFL in rushing. After putting up 300 rushing yards in a 47-17 blowout of the St. Louis Rams, the Falcons were confident that they could go into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles, who were playing without star WR Terrell Owens.

And they got beat. Badly. The combination of sub-zero temperatures, and a tough, physical Eagles defense limited Atlanta to 10 points, and a different group of birds were heading to the Super Bowl.

Atlanta entered 2005 as the favorites to win the NFC South and represent the NFC in Super Bowl XL in Detroit, and starting out 6-2 did little to sway NFL pundits. It was at this time that the Falcons began feeling the effects of some key injuries (Edgerton Hartwell and Brady Smith were lost for the season) just as the team entered the meat of their schedule. In the season’s final 8 weeks, Atlanta was swept by division rivals Tampa Bay and Carolina, couldn’t muster up any offense against a stingy Bears team, and lost at home to the lowly Green Bay Packers. The Atlanta Falcons went from a team with Super Bowl aspirations to one that was fortunate to finish at 8-8.

Michael Vick is about to enter his 6th season in the NFL, and his 5th season as the unquestioned #1 QB. In that time, the league’s most athletic player has generated just 2 playoff wins, and has shown little progress as a QB. Vick’s quarterback rating has topped out at 81.6, and that was in his 1st season as a full-time starting QB. Not counting 2003, where he played in just 5 games, Vick’s QB rating has gone from 81.6 to 78.1 to a lowly 73.1 in 2005.

There’s no doubt that the Falcons are a “run first” team. Warrick Dunn, TJ Duckett and yes, Michael Vick, have been the NFL’s best rushing attack the last two seasons, and I don’t expect that to change. Duckett has been the subject of trade rumors this off-season, and if he is dealt before the season, Atlanta has the speedy Jerious Norwood (2nd round pick) to replace him on the depth chart. The passing game suffered a huge blow when Brian Finneran was lost for the season with an injury, which means they’ll be looking to former 1st round picks Roddy White and Michael Jenkins to step up and produce this season. Michael Vick’s favorite target is still Pro Bowl tight end Alge Crumpler, the team’s leading receiver the last two seasons. Crumpler and Vick came into the NFL at the same time, and the 6th year tight end has made 3 straight trips to the Pro Bowl, with his numbers increasing every season. There’s little reason to suspect that will change in 2006.

After DE Brady Smith to injury, and releasing him in March, the Falcons traded away their first round pick for Jets defensive end John Abraham, a pass-rushing DE in the prime of this career. Abraham put up double-digit sack totals in the Big Apple, but he and Jets couldn’t come to terms on a long-term contract. He’ll be paired up with Patrick Kerney, and along with Pro Bowl DT Rod Coleman, the Falcons should have trouble generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Edgerton Hartwell was the prized free agent in 2005, and he returns from an injury-shortened season, as well. Hartwell and veteran Keith Brooking are smart, physical linebackers, and will be joined by 2nd year LB Michael Boley. The unit has great depth, with Demorrio Williams (the team’s leading tackler playing in place of Hartwell), Ike Reese and Jordan Beck backing up.

The secondary received a bit of a facelift in the off-season, as well. SS Lawyer Milloy was brought in, perceivably to improve the 26th-ranked run defense and add some veteran leadership in the secondary. He’ll be paired up with fellow newcomer Chris Crocker, who comes to Atlanta after 3 seasons in Cleveland. On the outside is Jason Webster (who came to Atlanta from San Francisco with coach Mora) and DeAngelo Hall, who is emerging as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. Rookie CB Jimmy Williams is expected to be the nickel corner.

Getting back to the playoffs won’t be easy for Atlanta. The NFC South is arguably the toughest division in the NFL. The non-conference schedule has them playing the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers, the Cincinnati Bengals and the improved Baltimore Ravens. They also have to face the entire NFC East (all have playoff aspirations) and the allegedly improved Arizona Cardinals. If Vick improves, and the defense plays up to its potential, the Falcons have a good shot to win the division. If Vick doesn’t improve, you can’t blame Falcons fans if they get a little impatient with their star QB.


Three & Out

- The loss of Finneran cannot be understated. Vick was as comfortable throwing to Finneran, a big (6-5) target, as he is with Alge Crumpler. Jenkins and White are promising wide receivers, but their 2005 production combined was equal to Alge Crumplers. One of them will need to step up and replace what was lost when Finneran was lost.

- For those that have always wondered why teams use two roster spots on kickers and punters, Jim Mora might be your kind of guy. Michael Koenen, the team’s punter, is getting a look as a field goal kicker as well. Blessed with a powerful leg, Keonen drilled all 4 of his field goal attempts in the pre-season opener, all of which from beyond 40 yards.

- You can’t talk about the Atlanta Falcons without mentioning the offensive line. Whenever you lead the NFL in rushing two straight years, this unit’s exposure is bound to increase. The downside of that is other teams will target them in free agency. That’s what happened to last year’s left tackle, Kevin Shaffer, who is now a Cleveland Brown. To fill that position, the Falcons acquired Wayne Gandy from New Orleans.

Fantasy Island

The safest fantasy option on the Falcons is Alge Crumpler. In fact, it’s not even close. Every opponent knows that Vick will be looking for him, yet Crumpler’s production has increased every season.

There’s no reason to suspect that won’t continue in 2006.













Thursday, August 17, 2006

New Orleans Saints - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 3-13 (4th in NFC South)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 20th (15th pass; 18th run)
Defense: 14th (3rd pass; 27th run)

Head Coach: Sean Payton (0-0); Entering 1st season as an NFL head coach.

2006 Draft Class

1.2 – RB, Reggie Bush (USC)
2.43 – DB, Roman Harper (Alabama)
4.108 – OT, Jahri Evans (Bloomsburg, PA)
5.135 – DE, Rob Ninkovich (Purdue)
6.171 – WR, Mike Hass (Oregon State)
6.174 – DB, Josh Lay (Pittsburgh)
7.210 – OG, Zach Strief (Northwestern)
7.252 – TE, Marques Colston (Hofstra)

Arrivals

Sean Payton, Head Coach (Dallas)
Drew Brees, QB (San Diego)
Jay Foreman, LB (NY Giants)
Scott Fujita, LB (Dallas)
Jonathan Goodwin, OG (NY Jets)
Chris Horn, WR (Kansas City)
Jamie Martin, QB (St. Louis)
Tommy Polley, LB (Baltimore)
Omar Stoutmire, S (Washington)
Jeff Faine, C (Cleveland)
Bethel Johnson, WR (New England)
Hollis Thomas, DT (Philadelphia)

Departures

Jim Haslett, Head Coach (St. Louis – defensive coordinator)
LeCharles Bentley, C (Cleveland)
Aaron Brooks, QB (Oakland)
Fakhir Brown, CB (St. Louis)
Sedrick Hodge, LB (Miami)
Courtney Watson, LB (Buffalo)
Darren Howard, DE (Philadelphia)
Johnathan Sullivan, DT (New England)
Wayne Gandy, OT (Atlanta)
Kendyl Jacox, OG
Az Hakim, WR

Team Overview

Hurricane Katrina displaced tens of thousands of resident of New Orleans. The New Orleans Saints were no exception, and 2005 turned into a permanent road trip. In the wake of that tragedy, the Saints turned in one of the most heroic performances of the season, up-ending the Carolina Panthers in the season opener, 23-20. They would win just 2 games the rest of the season.

After such a tumultuous season, including speculation that owner Tom Benson is planning on moving the franchise to San Antonio, the front office effectively cleaned house by ending the Jim Haslett, whose 6 seasons in the Big Easy resulted in just one playoff appearance. Joining “The Haz” on the chopping block was QB Aaron Brooks, whose play had gradually grown worse over the last few seasons.

Stepping into the head coaching vacancy is Sean Payton, whose spent the last few years under Bill Parcells (figuratively, not literally), and to replace Brooks, the Saints took a gamble on the surgically-repaired arm of Drew Brees. The biggest addition to the Saints offense came in the draft, when Heisman Award winner Reggie Bush fell to the 2nd spot in the draft. Despite having Deuce McAllister already on the roster, the Saints couldn’t pass up adding one of the more dynamic offensive players to enter the league in the last 10 years.

Brees and Bush immediately improve an offense that often went backwards under Aaron Brooks. Deuce McAllister returns from injury, and with Bush, the Saints now have two talented running backs to lean on. With the continued development of Donte Stallworth, and the return of a healthy Joe Horn, Brees will have some targets to throw to. New Orleans will also look to get more out of 2nd year players Devery Henderson and tight end Zach Hilton, who is a huge (6-8, 268) target in the middle of the field.

You can’t start discussing the Saints defense without understanding that this is a unit very much under construction. Last year, the Saints couldn’t stop the run (27th out of 32) and couldn’t keep opponents out of the end zone (28th in points allowed). That’s a good place for new coordinator Gary Gibbs to start.

New Orleans dumped overeater Johnathan Sullivan, linebackers Sedrick Hoge and Courtney Watson, and defensive backs Fakhir Brown and Dwight Smith in the off-season. They’ve brought in Hollis Thomas (a 6-foot, 330-pound run-stuffer), and linebackers Scott Fujita and Tommy Polley to improve the run defense. This is still a unit that is going to struggle this season, but New Orleans is heading in the right direction.

Perhaps the best news this off-season was the announcement that the Superdome will be ready for the Saints home opener on September 25th. The question is: Will the fans come back? The New Orleans area is still feeling the effects of Katrina and the lives it shook, and sadly, took.

New Orleans won’t be confused with a playoff contender, but they should be better, and thanks to Reggie Bush, much more entertaining than they’ve been in recent seasons. Fans have a tendency to pony up the dough if they feel that the organization is pointed in the right direction. So far, things are looking good in the Sean Payton era.


Three & Out

- The one bright spot the Saints can take out of 2005 was the development of WR Donte Stallworth, who set career-highs in receptions and yards, and his 7 touchdowns were the most since 2002, his rookie season. A consistently producing Stallworth can take this offense to the next level (from mediocre to average, if you’re wondering).

- As promising the development of Stallworth was, the team must be concerned about Joe Horn, the team’s elder statesmen at wide receiver. Horn had his worst season as a Saint, and while they hope the injury situation has healed, Horn is a 34-year old WR. Rarely do 34-year old wideouts bounce back from seasons like 2005.

- The defense would receive a major boost if Charles Grant can get back to his pre-2005 form. After turning in 27.5 sacks over his 1st three seasons in the NFL, Grant managed just 2.5 a year ago. On the other side, Will Smith showed why many view him as an up-and-coming pass rusher by registering 8.5 sacks in his sophomore season.  

Fantasy Island

Because you’ll rarely get another opportunity to draft a rookie like this, take a late 2nd/early 3rd round pick on Reggie Bush. He’ll get some carries, line up as a wide receiver and could even return some kicks. If your league awards points to individuals on special teams scores, Bush is a great option to have on your roster.












Chicago Bears - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 11-5 (1st in NFC North); Lost to Carolina, 29-21, in NFC Divisional Playoffs

2005 Rankings
Offense: 31st (31st pass; 8th run)
Defense: 2nd (5th pass; 11th run)

Head Coach: Lovie Smith (16-16, 0-1 in post-season); Entering 3rd season as NFL head coach, all with the Chicago Bears.

2006 Draft Class

2.42 – DB, Danieal Manning (Abilene Christian)
2.57 – WR, Devin Hester (Miami)
3.73 – DT, Dusty Dvoracek (Oklahoma)
4.120 – LB, Jamar Williams (Arizona State)
5.159 – DE, Mark Anderson (Alabama)
6.195 – RB, JD Runnels (Oklahoma)
7.200 – OG, Tyler Reed (Penn State)

Arrivals

Brian Griese, QB (Tampa Bay)
Ricky Manning, Jr., CB (Carolina)
Dante Wesley, CB (Carolina)

Departures

Jerry Azumah, CB (retirement)
Terrance Metcalf, OG (Kansas City)
Mike Green, S (Seattle)


Team Overview

How can a team ranked 2nd to last in the NFL in total offense earn a 1st round bye in the playoffs? If you’re the Chicago Bears, you do it with defense. No team in the NFL allowed fewer points than Chicago, who 11-man defense sent 5 guys to Hawaii for the Pro Bowl.

After a 1-3 start, the Bears rode their defense on an 8-game winning streak during the heart of the season, opening up a wide lead in the NFC North and finished with the conference’s 2nd best record. Unfortunately, Carolina came into Soldier Field riding a hot streak, and found the lone weakness in the Bear’s defense: The secondary. That’s why the Bears signed Ricky Manning, a restricted free agent from Carolina. They recognized that they needed to improve the secondary.

The last two seasons of Rex Grossman’s career have been cut short due to injuries, but Grossman opened training camp as the team’s starting QB. After rookie Kyle Orton struggled last year, the team has brought in Brian Griese to add a true veteran presence at the position, and Orton will most likely be the team’s #3 QB this year.

The Bears have a solid offensive line, and with their two back system (Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones), they’re comfortable playing the “3 yards a cloud of dust” style of football. Before last season, the Bears thought they addressed their lack of wide receiving talent by signing Muhsin Muhammed and drafting Mark Bradley in the 2nd round of the 2005 draft. It didn’t work out. Bradley was lost for the year midway through the season, and Muhammed was Kyle Orton’s only legitimate target. This year, they hope that Bradley and Bernard Berrian can step up and stay healthy, which should open up the passing game for Grossman and Co.

Defensively, the Bears are perhaps the most physical group in the NFL. They don’t just pursue and tackle better than everyone else, they like to punish their opponents. They are deep along the defensive line, and don’t need to blitz to generate pressure on the quarterback. The line does that all by itself. The linebackers are fast, and as comfortable chasing running backs as they are covering the tight end. By adding Ricky Manning and Dante Wesley in free agency, and Devin Hester and Danieal Manning in the draft, the Bears have improved their depth in the secondary.

If there was a “favorite” in the NFC North, it’s Chicago. They have a tough defense, good running game, and heck, they won the division a year ago. But they’ll need to improve offensively to keep ahead of their division rivals. Nobody expected Chicago to win the division last year, and without that improvement on offense, nobody will be surprised if they fail to make the playoffs.

Three & Out

- With Mark Bradley not expected back right away (reconstructive knee surgery), the Bears would love to get more production from their tight ends. Desmond Clark, John Gilmore and Gabe Reid combined for just 28 receptions in 2005. Clark has the ability to produce 35-40 catches, but until the QB throws to him, he can’t show it.

- There’s a possible QB controversy in Chicago. Grossman was given the “a starter does not lose his job to injury” treatment, but Brian Griese is a more established NFL quarterback, makes more money, and played very well in their first pre-season game.

- Robbie Gould is the incumbent, but Chicago might want to try to find a better kicking option at some point. Gould was solid from inside 40 yards (9-10), but struggled beyond that, connecting on just 38% of attempts from beyond 41-49.

Fantasy Island

Cedric Benson is back from an injury-shortened rookie season, and will be the feature back in 2006. Many project Benson to be a star in the NFL, and the 4th overall pick in 2005 has shown signs in camp that he’ll reach that status sooner than later.











Minnesota Vikings - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 9-7 (2nd in NFC North)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 25th (18th pass; 27th run)
Defense: 21st (22nd pass; 19th run)

Head Coach: Brad Childress (0-0); Entering 1st season as NFL head coach.

2006 Draft Class

1.17 – LB, Chad Greenway (Iowa)
2.48 – DB, Cedric Griffin (Texas)
2.51 – C, Ryan Cook (New Mexico)
2.64 – QB, Tavaris Jackson (Alabama State)
4.127 –DE, Ray Edwards (Purdue)
5.149 – S, Greg Blue (Georgia)

Arrivals

Brad Childress, Head Coach (Philadelphia)
Steve Hutchinson, OG (Seattle)
Ben Leber, LB (San Diego)
Ryan Longwell, K (Green Bay)
Tony Richardson, FB (Kansas City)
Chester Taylor, RB (Baltimore)
Tank Williams, S (Tennessee)


Departures

Daunte Culpepper, QB (Miami)
Michael Bennett, RB (New Orleans)
Nate Burleson, WR (Seattle)
Corey Chavous, S (St. Louis)
Sam Cowart, LB (Houston)
Toniu Fonoti, G (Tampa Bay)
Melvin Fowler, C (Buffalo)
Lance Johnstone, DE (Oakland)
Raonall Smith, LB (St. Louis)
Brian Williams, CB (Jacksonville)
Mike Tice, head coach (Jacksonville – assistant head coach)


Team Overview

A year after ESPN yanked “Playmakers” off the air, reportedly at the request of the NFL who deemed the television series to be an exaggeration of the lives of NFL players, the 2005 Minnesota Vikings said “Wanna bet?”

There was head coach Mike Tice getting caught scalping his allotment of Super Bowl tickets, Onterrio Smith’s “Whizzinator” incident, and it all came to a boil during the infamous “Love Boat” scandal, in which several players were charged lewd and lascivious behavior, including franchise QB Daunte Culpepper and the newly signed Fred “Cap’n” Smoot.

Zygie Wilf was not a happy owner. The team struggled to a 2-5 start before losing Culpepper for the season with a knee injury. Veteran Brad Johnson led the team to a 7-2 finish, but it wasn’t enough for Minnesota to make the playoffs, and it wasn’t enough for Mike Tice to keep his job.

Brad Childress was brought on board to be the head coach, and Childress, Wilf and Rob Brzezinski got to work on improving the roster. Daunte Culpepper wanted out, so they traded him to Miami. To improve the offensive line, the Vikings signed the best guard in the NFL, Steve Hutchinson, to a poison-pill laden offer sheet that Seattle couldn’t match. Even the kicking game wasn’t ignored as the Vikings luring Ryan Longwell away from division rival Green Bay.

Childress’ first mission is to install his offensive scheme, which is expected to feature a bigger commitment to running the football, and short passes. It’s similar to the offense Brad Johnson led Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl win with a few seasons ago, which is why Minnesota didn’t mind dealing away Culpepper, their disgruntled QB.

On paper, the defense isn’t good. It’s great. The tackles, Pat and Kevin Williams (no relation) are disruptive forces, and the ends (Keneche Udeze and Erasmus James) are former 1st round picks. Minnesota has talented linebackers, and their pair of starting cornerbacks (Fred Smoot & Antoine Winfield) are one of the best duos in the entire NFL. Dwight Smith and Darren Shaper give the Vikings a veteran safety pairing, and Willie Offord and Greg Blue are quality reserves.

Still, this was a group that ranked 21st in the NFL a year ago. New coordinator Mike Tomlin (who is 34 years old, and a former college roommate of Darren Sharper’s) spent the last few seasons coaching the Buccaneers secondary, and is installing a “Tampa 2”, stay at-home style of defense. The players are beginning to buy into his system, and that could go a long way towards improving upon last year.

The Vikings could be the most talented team overall in the NFC North, and with the way Brad Johnson played down the stretch, the Vikings winning the division doesn’t seem far-fetched. They’ll need a few guys to step up at the skill positions, though, in order for that to happen. Either way, the organization is finally pointing in the right direction.  

Three & Out

- The defense suffered a serious blow in the pre-season opener as linebacker Chad Greenway, the team’s 1st round pick in April, suffered a torn ACL and will miss the entire 2006 season.

- Koren Robinson was expected to play a prominent role in Brad Childress’ offensive gameplan, and he started the team’s first pre-season game. Just three days later, it’s doubtful Koren Robinson will ever play in the NFL again. Physically, he’s 100% healthy, but Robinson suffered a relapse, and was arrested for his 2nd DWI in 16 months. He faces a lengthy list of charges, and there’s virtually no chance he’ll play for the Vikings again.

- When Daunte Culpepper’s knee went through the shredder in Carolina, Minnesota had an experienced veteran ready to take over. This year, Mike McMahon and JT O’Sullivan are battling to be the #2 QB behind the 38-year old Johnson. Keeping Johnson healthy is very, very important.

Fantasy Island

Chester Taylor spent the first 4 seasons of his career backing up Jamal Lewis in Baltimore. Once he became an unrestricted free agent, Minnesota quickly snatched him up and named him their starter. He’ll be running behind a solid offensive line, but he’s never carried the ball more than 160 times in a single season. It’s yet to be seen if he’s capable of being a workhorse-type of back.










Detroit Lions - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 5-11 (3rd in NFC North)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 27th (26th pass; 26th run)
Defense: 20th (13th pass; 24th run)

Head Coach: Rod Marinelli (0-0); Entering 1st season as NFL head coach.

2006 Draft Class

1.9 – LB, Ernie Sims (Florida State)
2.40 – S, Daniel Bullocks (Nebraska)
3.74 – RB, Brian Calhoun (Wisconsin)
5.114 – OT, Jonathan Scott (Texas)
6.179 – DB, Dee McCann (West Virginia)
7.217 – OG, Fred Matua (USC)
7.247 – LB, Anthony Cannon (Tulane)

Arrivals

Rod Marinelli, Head Coach (Tampa Bay)
Mike Martz, Offensive Coordinator (St. Louis)
Jon Kitna, QB (Cincinnati)
Josh McCown, QB (Arizona)
Jamar Fletcher, CB (San Diego)
Mike Furrey, WR (St. Louis)
Paris Lenon, LB (Green Bay)


Departures

Joey Harrington, QB (Miami)
Jeff Garcia, QB (Philadelphia)
Andre Goodman, CB (Miami)
Kyle Kosier, OL (Dallas)
R.W. McQuarters, CB (NY Giants)


Team Overview

Even with a 3-5 record, Detroit was still in the hunt in the NFC North at the midway point of the 2005 season. After getting to 4-5, the Lions dropped 2 straight. Head coach Steve Mariucci was fired, the people in Detroit began the “Fire Millen” campaign, and Dick Jauron coached the team to one win in the season’s final month, ending another disappointing season for Motor City football fans. Hey, at least they hosted the Super Bowl!

In the off-season, Millen was given a vote of confidence, and the organization brought in longtime Buccaneers defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli to be their new head coach. Marinelli is one of three rookie head coaches in the NFC North. He did add an assistant coach with head coaching experience, bringing in “genius” Mike Martz to coordinate the offense. Martz coached the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2001, and had some health issues that prevented him from coaching his final season in St. Louis.

Millen and Marinelli began work on overhauling the roster, starting at the quarterback position. Due to his connections with then-head coach Steve Mariucci, the team signed Jeff Garcia before the 2005 season, thinking that he could press Joey Harrington into performing well. If not, he could step in and run Mooch’s offense. It didn’t work out so well. Garcia was hurt in training camp, and when he was finally healthy, played with as inconsistently as Harrington did. Both were let go in the off-season.

The team bypassed drafting a quarterback in the draft, electing to sign free agent veterans like Jon Kitna and Josh McCown. Right now, the job is Kitna’s. Detroit will be hoping Kevin Jones can bounce back from his sophomore slump, and get back to the form he showed as a rookie. Jones has the size and speed to do so.

What will be interesting is seeing how the offense to Mike Martz’s scheme. Everyone knows that Matt Millen invested heavily in wide receivers in recent draft, and if anyone can salvage the careers of Charles Rogers and Mike Williams, two #1 picks who haven’t panned out, it’s Mike Martz. Currently, Roy Williams (the one 1st round wideout who actually plays like one) and Corey Bradford are listed as the starters. Also keep an eye on former Ram receiver Mike Furrey, who played WR under Martz but was switched to a safety, as he knows this system better than any of the other receivers on the roster.

Marinelli is a defensive-minded coach, and he has hired a solid defensive coordinator (Donnie Henderson) to revamp the Lions defense. Henderson has an impressive track record, and he has shown the ability to turn things around very quickly.

The defense isn’t without talent. Shaun Rogers makes annual trips to the Pro Bowl, and he’ll be paired up with 2nd year DT Shaun Cody on the inside. If he could ever remain healthy, Boss Bailey has the athleticism to be a playmaker on defense. Dre Bly is no stranger to Honolulu, and rookies Ernie Sims and Daniel Bullocks are expected to have immediate impacts on the defense, and could, in fact, start right away.

The issue with Detroit’s defense is depth. Actually, it’s the appearance that they don’t have any that’s the issue. This is a unit that typically ranks near the bottom of the league, and any improvements will require the key personnel to remain healthy, and for the team to buy into Henderson’s system.

In an NFC North that is perceivably anyone’s to win, you can’t blame Detroit fans for being optimistic. However, this team has more question marks than any other in the division and it’s more likely that they’ll finish worse than 5-11 in Rod Marinelli’s 1st season.

Three & Out

- The Detroit Lions leading receiver in 2005? Marcus Pollard. That won’t happen in 2006. Tight ends in Mike Martz’s system are an afterthought, not a primary target.

- Speaking of Mike Martz’s system, the offensive line will be expected to block longer on passing plays than it did under Mariucci’s west coast offense. Quick slants are replaced by 15-yard ins, and they’ll need to keep pressure off of Jon Kitna, who is not exactly fleet of foot.

- His drafts have been heavily scrutinized in recent years, but Matt Millen is due some credit for drafting LB Ernie Sims and S Daniel Bullocks in this year’s draft. Though perhaps more credit could be due to Marinelli and Donnie Henderson, Millen showed excellent restraint for not picking another WR with any of the team’s draft picks.

Fantasy Island

After two less-than-spectacular seasons in the NFL, Roy Williams appears destined to have a breakout season. In Mike Martz’s pass-happy offense, Williams, the best WR on the roster, should flourish. He’s always showed a knack for catching touchdown passes (16 of his 99 career receptions have gone for scores), and I expect his receptions and yards to finally cross the 70-1000 mark in 2006.









Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Green Bay Packers - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 4-12 (4th in NFC North)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 18th (6th pass; 30th run)
Defense: 7th (1st pass; 23rd run)

Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (0-0); Entering 1st season as NFL head coach.      

2006 Draft Class

1.5 – LB, AJ Hawk (Ohio State)
2.47 – OT, Daryn Colledge (Boise State)
2.52 – WR, Greg Jennings (Western Michigan)
3.67 – LB, Abdul Hodge (Iowa)
3.75 – C, Jason Spitz (Louisville)
4.104 – WR, Cory Rodgers (TCU)
4.115 – WR, Will Blackmon (Boston College)
5.148 – QB, Ingle Martin (Furman)
5.165 – OT, Tony Moll (Nevada)
6.183 – DT, Johnny Jolly (Texas A&M)
6.185 – DB, Tyrone Culver (Fresno State)
7.253 – DE, Dave Tollefson (NW Missouri State) – Yes, they have a football team.

Arrivals

Kenderick Allen, DT (NY Giants)
Marc Boerigter, WR (Kansas City)
Marquand Manuel, S (Seattle)
Ryan Pickett, DT (St. Louis)

Departures

Antonio Chatham, WR (Cincinnati)
Na’il Diggs, LB (Carolina)
Tony Fisher, RB (St. Louis)
Mike Flanagan, C (Houston)
Ryan Longwell, K (Minnesota)
Craig Nall, QB (Buffalo)
Grey Ruegamer, G (NY Giants)

Team Overview

It would be easier to list the positive things that happened to the Green Bay Packers than to recite the laundry list of calamities that the Lambeau faithful were forced to endure. Since it’s a brand new year, with a brand new coach (Mike McCarthy), why not just say the following and move on: 2005 could’ve sucked a golf ball through a garden hose.

Now, let’s move on to 2006, shall we?

The offense appears to be in pretty good shape. Brett Favre is back for at least one more season. Ahman Green and “Dookie” Davenport return from injuries sustained in the season that shall not be named. Donald Driver has developed into one of the top WRs in the NFL, and the team is bringing back it’s three-headed monster (Bubba Franks, Donald Lee, David Martin) at the tight end position.

The trouble lies on the offensive line. Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher are very good offensive tackles, but the interior offensive line has been re-worked after several key veterans departed through free agency the last few years. Scott Wells starts at center, and two of three rookies, Jason Spitz, Tony Moll and Daryn Colledge, are projected to start at the guard positions. You’ll also hear a lot about Colledge, a rookie from Boise State who grew up on Santa Claus Way in North Pole, Alaska. Get used to hearing that factoid, because every broadcaster is going to be mentioning it.

The defense has received a facelift, and actually has a shot to be very good this year. Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (“KGB” for short) possess solid pass-rushing skills, and Kenny Peterson provides decent depth at the position. Kenderick Allen and Ryan Pickett were brought in to man the middle, along with Cullen Jenkins (brother of Kris, of the Carolina Panthers). The linebackers could be the most talented unit on the defense. Nick Barnett and Ben Taylor welcome rookies AJ Hawk (5th overall pick of the 2006 draft) and Abdul Hodge (3rd round pick who is reportedly having a phenomenal training camp) to the mix. You can never have too much talent at linebacker.

The secondary also received a boost through free agency. The team acted quickly, targeting safety Marquand Manuel (Seattle) as soon as the opening bell rang. Manuel isn’t the most talented safety in the NFL, but he’s a smart veteran presence in the backfield that stepped in and was a leader on a Seahawks team that went to the Super Bowl. Charles Woodson and the Oakland Raiders agreed to stop playing the franchise tag game, and the talented corner landed in Green Bay, Wisconsin. We’ll see if they’ll overlook the fact that he was a Wolverine. Woodson is expected to be the cornerback Ahmad Carroll hasn’t developed into.

Anytime a team is coming off a 4-12 season, and has a rookie head coach, expectations are normally quite low. But this is Green Bay, and as long as Brett Favre is the quarterback, wins and a trip to the post-season are expected. Can the Packers get back there? Can they get back to the playoffs so Favre can end his career on a proper note?

The NFC North is up for grabs, so anything is possible.


Three & Out

- Everything might hinge on the offensive line’s ability to gel in training camp. In the first pre-season game, the Chargers tossed Favre around like a ragdoll. That’s to be expected when you’ve got three inexperienced starters on the interior line.

- One player Favre must be happy to see return is fullback William Henderson, who returns for his 12th NFL season, all with Green Bay. Henderson was courted by several teams this off-season (including divisional rival Minnesota), but the durable fullback, and sure-handed safety valve for Favre, believes that last season was “a fluke” and expects this year’s team to fare much better.

- Only the hapless New Orleans Saints equaled the futile (-24) turnover ratio the Packers had in 2005, and that’s not something that can be attributed to the youthful offense the injuries pressed into duty. Much of that falls to Brett Favre, who has to cut down on his interceptions for this team to be successful.

Fantasy Island

Ahman Green was once a dominant fantasy player, but his stock has fallen considerably since his 1,800-yard/15 TD season in 2004.

The most consistent fantasy option in Green Bay is Donald Driver. Despite all the turmoil and inconsistency on this team in 2005, Driver put up career highs in receptions and yards. Don’t be scared off by his low touchdown production total, those numbers will be bounce back in 2006.








New York Giants - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 11-5 (1st in NFC East). Lost to Carolina in NFC Wild Card game, 23-0.

2005 Rankings
Offense: 3rd (11th pass; 6th run)
Defense: 24th (27th pass; 12th run)

Head Coach: Tom Coughlin (85-75, 4-5 in post-season). Entering 3rd season with the New York Giants (17-15, 0-1 in post-season) after 8 seasons with the Jacksonville Jaguars.    

2006 Draft Class

1.32 – DE, Mathias Kiwanuka (Boston College)
2.44 – WR, Sinorice Moss (Miami)
3.96 – LB, Gerris Wilkinson (Georgia Tech)
4.124 – OT, Barry Cofield (Northwestern)
4.129 – OT, Guy Whimper (East Carolina)
5.158 – DB, Charlie Peprah (Alabama)
7.232 – DB, Gerrick McPhearson (Maryland)

Arrivals

Lavar Arrington, LB (Washington)
Jason Bell, CB (Houston)
Will Demps, S (Baltimore)
Sam Madison, CB (Miami)
R.W. McQuarters, CB (Detroit)
Grey Ruegamer, G (Green Bay)
Brandon Short, LB (Carolina)

Departures

Kenderick Allen, DT (Green Bay)
Kendrick Clancy, DT (Arizona)
Will Allen, CB (Miami)
Jay Foreman, LB (New Orleans)
Barrett Green, LB (Houston)
Nick Greisen, LB (Jacksonville)
Jason Whittle, G (Minnesota)

Team Overview

Expectations weren’t sky-high for the Giants, who were still in the process of developing Eli Manning into NFL-caliber starting quarterback. Fortunately, the Giants had Tiki Barber, who enjoyed a career-year carrying the football, finishing 2nd in the NFL in rushing with 1,860 yards. In some games, Barber flat-out carried the team to a win, and Barber got some well-deserved attention from those who vote for the NFL’s MVP.

This year, the Giants hope to eliminate some of the miscues that cost them some wins last year. Manning definitely improved in 2005, but he still has trouble throwing the deep ball, and he still locks into a receiver. Those are correctable offenses, though, and I expect a bigger leap forward out of the 3rd year quarterback.

One thing that would certainly help improve Manning’s numbers is if his receivers actually catch the football. The Giants dropped 37 passes, 17 of which were dropped by the top 2 receivers on the roster, Plaxico Burress (11) and Jeremy Shockey (7). As good as these players are, they need to eliminate the drops if the Giants are to make the next step under Tom Coughlin.

Another area that hampered the Giants is that they ranked 3rd in the NFL in penalties against. Who could forget the 11 false start penalties against Seattle in November? Cut down on the penalties, and who knows if Jay Feely misses 3 straight game-winning field goal attempts.

Defensively, the Giants were awful against the pass, despite having one of the best pair of pass-rushing defensive ends in the game. Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan applied significant pressure in 2006, but the linebackers and secondary were dreadful enough in coverage, that it rarely mattered.

As noted in the “arrivals” category above, the Giants focused their attention in free agency on shoring up the back 7. Last year, the linebacking crew was hit hard by injury, and in the playoffs, they were basically signing players off the street just to be able to suit up 3 guys at the position. This year, they added LaVar Arrington, and hope to have Carlos Emmons and Antonio Pierce back from injury. The secondary has been overhauled as well, with Will Demps and Sam Madison brought in to provide veteran leadership to the young kids (Corey Webster and Gibril Wilson) they’ll be starting with.

If Manning and the pass defense can improve, the Giants can repeat as NFC East champs. If the receivers are still dropping passes, the line still commits false starts, and Jay Feely keeps missing game-winning field goals, it could be a long year for Coach Coughlin.


Three & Out

  • Rookie Sinorice Moss was expected to give the Giants offense a boost by providing Manning with a speedy deep threat. Thus far, he hasn’t managed to practice due to a strained quadriceps muscle. As they get deeper into training camp, and Moss continues to be a spectator, you have to wonder what, if any, impact Moss will have during his rookie year.

  • 9 of the first 10 Giants opponents have playoff aspirations. No team plays a tougher schedule than the Giants. In fact, of the 16 games the Giants will play, only three could be considered a “gimme”.

  • A lot was made early in camp when newly signed safety Will Demps was a bit “aggressive” during a play that ended with Jeremy Shockey remaining on the turf for a minute. Shockey, and the rest of the Giants, should welcome Demps aggressiveness. The Giants have been a soft team, both mentally and physically, the last two seasons. Too soft for a team coached by a guy as tough as Tom Coughlin. Changing that attitude begins in camp, and it begins with players like Demps.

Fantasy Island

Even though Eli Manning is entering his 3rd season in the NFL, I wouldn’t expect the Giants to open up their offense just yet. Tiki Barber is still a decent late 1st/early 2nd round selection in your draft. Barber’s workload has increased the last two years, which was to be expected with a young quarterback, and Barber has responded by turning in two of the finest seasons of his career.







Washington Redskins - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 10-6 (2nd in NFC East). Lost divisional playoff game to Seattle, 20-10.

2005 Rankings
Offense: 11th (22nd pass; 7th run)
Defense: 9th (10th pass; 13th run)

Head Coach: Joe Gibbs (140-76, 17-6 in post-season); Entering 15th season as head coach of the Washington Redskins (1981-1992, 2004-present), leading the Redskins to wins in Super Bowls XVII, XXII and XVI.    

2006 Draft Class

2.35 – LB, Rocky McIntosh (Miami)
5.153 – DT, Anthony Montgomery (Minnesota)
6.173 – DB, Reed Doughty (Northern Colorado)
6.196 – DT, Kedric Golston (Georgia)
7.230 – OG, Kili Lefotu (Arizona)
7.250 – LB, Kevin Simon (Tennessee)

Arrivals

Adam Archuleta, S (St. Louis)
Christian Fauria, TE (New England)
Brandon Lloyd, WR (San Francisco)
Antwan Randle El, WR (Pittsburgh)
Kenny Wright, CB (Jacksonville)
Andre Carter, DE (San Francisco)

Departures

LaVar Arrington, LB (NY Giants)
Matt Bowen, S (Buffalo)
Ryan Clark, S (Pittsburgh)
Patrick Ramsey, QB (NY Jets)

Team Overview

After an overtime loss, at home to the San Diego Chargers, the Washington Redskins found themselves at 5-6 and a schedule that had them playing 3 of the last 5 games on the road.  Things were not looking good for Joe Gibb’s troops, but they rallied together, easily won every game remaining on their schedule, and entered January as the “team nobody wanted to face”. Their defense suffocated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but midnight struck, and Seattle sent the Cinderella ‘Skins home from the ball.

After another season ended without a trip to the Super Bowl, Daniel Snyder did what Daniel Snyder does best: He went shopping for big name free agents.

With a passing attack consisting of just Santana Moss and Chris Cooley, Snyder added Antwan Randle El and traded for Brandon Lloyd, giving both big money deals. Snyder beefed up the defense by adding Adam Archuleta, Kenny Wright and defensive end Andre Carter. Another off-season, another free agent spending spree by one the NFL’s most free-spending owner.

Offensively, Washington hopes to get another season out of Mark Brunell’s arm. He’s slowed down a bit over the years, but he is still capable of making all the throws he needs to. Despite the influx of wide receiving talent the last two off-seasons, the offensive motor is still Clinton Portis. Behind an improved offensive line in 2005, Portis’ rushing yards and touchdowns increased.

Even though Snyder gave both Randle El and Lloyd hefty contracts, there should be no dispute about who the top WR on this team is. Santana Moss’ first season in the nation’s capital was a smashing success, as he hauled in a career-high 84 passes for nearly 1500 yards and 9 touchdowns.

Last year, Gregg Williams showed why it won’t be long before another team gives him a shot as their head coach. Even playing without a talent like LaVar Arrington, whose undisciplined style of play didn’t mesh with Williams’ defensive scheme, the Redskins were a Top 10, veteran-heavy unit. Andre Carter was brought on-board, along with his potential to rack up a double-digit sack totals. He’ll pair nicely with Phillip Daniels, who a year ago, put up his highest sack total (8) in nearly 5 seasons.

Last year, Washington finished a game behind the New York Giants in the NFC East. This year, they’ll look to swap places. Can they do it? Absolutely. This team has enough talent on both sides of the ball to win the tough NFC East. Even if they can’t unseat the Giants, this is a team that will be in the playoff picture.


Three & Out

  • You can count Clinton Portis among those who feel the NFL’s pre-season schedule is too long. Portis dislocated his left shoulder while making a tackle in the pre-season opener, and his injury could cause him to miss a game or two at the start of the season. Fantasy owners beware!

  • Mike Sellers: Touchdown Machine. In his 6-year NFL career, Sellers, who is listed as a fullback, has never taken an NFL handoff. He has been used out of the backfield as a receiver, though. In 38 career receptions, 13 have gone for touchdowns. Cris Carter has nothing on him.

  • Some of the woes that plagued the offense down the stretch coincided with the Redskins placing right guard Randy Thomas on injured reserve with a broken leg. His replacement, 43-year old Ray Brown, was overmatched playing in place of Thomas, who was enjoying a Pro Bowl-type of season before being injured.

Fantasy Island

With a good offensive line in front of him, Clinton Portis lined up behind him, and several targets to throw to, Mark Brunell returns as a viable starting option at the quarterback position. He’ll no longer get you many points with his legs, but Brunell could improve on the 23 touchdown passes he threw a year ago.  






Dallas Cowboys - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 9-7 (3rd in NFC East)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 12th (13th pass; 13th run)
Defense: 10th (11th pass; 15th run)

Head Coach: Bill Parcells (163-123-1, 11-7 in post-season, including wins in Super Bowls XXI and XXV); Entering 19th season as NFL head coach, and his 4th season with the Dallas Cowboys.    

2006 Draft Class

1.18 – LB, Bobby Carpenter (Ohio State)
2.53 –TE, Anthony Fasano (Notre Dame)
3.92 – DE, Jason Hatcher (Grambling)
4.125 – WR, Skyler Green (LSU)
5.138 – DB, Pat Watkins (Florida State)
6.182 – DT, Montavious Stanley (LSU)
7.211 – OT, Pat McQuistan (Weber State)
7.224 – C, EJ Whitley (Texas Tech)

Arrivals

Terrell Owens, WR (Philadelphia)
Akin Ayodele, LB (Jacksonville)
Rocky Boiman, LB (Houston)
Jason Fabini, OT (NY Jets)
Ryan Hannam, TE (Seattle)
Mike Vanderjagt, K (Indianapolis)
Kyle Kosier, OG (Detroit)

Departures

Larry Allen, G (San Francisco)
Dan Campbell, TE (Detroit)
Scott Fujita, LB (New Orleans)
La’Roi Glover, DT (St. Louis)
Keyshawn Johnson, WR (Carolina)
Anthony Thomas, RB (Buffalo)
Torrin Tucker, OT (Tampa Bay)


Team Overview

If it weren’t for the Cowboys ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the Cowboys would’ve made the playoffs in 2006. Late-game losses, and an inability to give Drew Bledsoe enough time to find open receivers led to a shaky 2-4 finish in a season where Dallas could never sustain quality play for more than a 3-game stretch.

To get over the playoff hump, Dallas made a huge splash in free agency, signing former the enigmatic Terrell Owens to a multi-year contract. Owens going to Dallas appears to be a match made in…well, someplace. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones never shies away from the “talented, but troubled” big-name star players, but it’s yet to be seen how Owens and Parcells will get along. The Tuna has never been too tolerant of players who stray from his disciplined ways, and Owens has never been the sort of guy who walks the line.

T.O., now paired with Terry Glenn, gives the Cowboys a pair of deep-threat wide receivers, which is something they lacked during when Keyshawn Johnson lined up on the outside. They’ll open up the underneath routes for Jason Witten, who may be the best all-around tight end in the NFC. The threat of the deep ball also forces the safeties to be more honest, keeping them away the line, and running backs Julius Jones and Marion Barber.  

The addition of Owens won’t mean a thing without better play from an offensive line that yielded 49 sacks a year ago. While they did keep Bledsoe healthy enough to take all the snaps a year ago, Bledsoe does not have the mobility to buy himself any time for Owens and Glenn to get deep. Dallas has added former 49er and Lion Kyle Kosier to play the left guard spot vacated by Larry Allen. Other than that, this unit returns unchanged.

Defensively, the Cowboys have overhauled the defense over the last two seasons, and the end result is a potentially dominant 3-4 alignment. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is excited about 2nd year players DeMarcus Ware, Marcus Spears and Chris Canty, so much in fact that all three are expected to start in the front 7. Dallas does have some veteran experience in the mix, with Jason Ferguson starting at nose tackle, and Greg Ellis and newcomer Akin Ayodele providing veteran leadership at linebacker. Rookie Bobby Carpenter (whose father played under Parcells for New York during the 1980s) is versatile enough to play any of the linebacker spots. The secondary features a pair of cover corners (Terrance Newman, Anthony Henry) and some hard-hitting safeties (Keith Davis, Roy Williams). Aaron Glenn is a solid nickel corner, and rookie Pat Watkins has the size and speed to make an immediate impact.

On paper, it’s easy to see why so many NFL observers are so high on the Cowboys. Between Parcells coaching resume, and the talented defense, it’s natural for Dallas to win more games in 2006. I’m still wary of that offensive line, and Terrell Owens’ head, to make such a prediction. With a tougher schedule in 2006, Dallas might find those wins will be harded to come by than they thought.


Three & Out

  • With only one fullback on the roster (Lousaka Polite), Dallas often employed two tight end formations. Dan Campbell was an effective blocker, but was no threat in the passing game. This year, Dallas added free agent Ryan Hannam, an excellent blocker with soft hands, and drafted Anthony Fasano from Notre Dame. A position with only one real receiving option (Witten) now has three players capable of producing at the position.

  • It’s worth noting that in his nearly 20-year career as a head coach, Bill Parcells has never gone 3 seasons without making the playoffs, and hasn’t even gone 3 straight seasons between 10-win seasons.

  • Putting Parcells’ streak in jeopardy is one of the toughest mid-season schedules in the NFL. From October 23rd-December 3rd, Dallas plays the NY Giants, at Carolina, at Washington, at Arizona, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay and at NY Giants. That’s a downright brutal 7-game stretch.

Fantasy Island

Few quarterbacks throw a deep ball as accurately as Drew Bledsoe. Few wide receivers can catch the deep ball like Terrell Owens. Seems like a match made in heaven, right?

Owens could have a monster season, so nobody is going to blame you for taking a high draft pick on him. Just don’t be surprised if Owens and Dallas sour on one another, ok? By now, everyone should be aware of that risk.






Philadelphia Eagles - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 6-10 (4th in NFC East)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 19th (8th pass; 28th run)
Defense: 23rd (21st pass; 21st run)

Head Coach: Andy Reid (70-42, 7-5 in post-season); Entering 8th season as the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles.  

2006 Draft Class

1.14 – DT, Brodrick Bunkley (Florida State)
2.39 – OT, Winston Justice (USC)
3.71 – DE, Chris Gocong (Cal-Poly)
4.99 – OG, Max Jean-Gilles (Georgia)
4.109 – WR, Jason Avant (Michigan)
5.147 – WR/KR, Jeremy Bloom (Colorado)
5.168 – LB, Omar Gaither (Tennessee)
6.204 – DT, LaJuan Ramsey (USC)

Arrivals

Shawn Barber, LB (Kansas City)
Jabar Gaffney, WR (Houston)
Jeff Garcia, QB (Detroit)
Darren Howard, DE (New Orleans)
Ed Jasper, DT (Oakland)
Matt Schobel, TE (Cincinnati)

Departures

Terrell Owens, WR (Dallas)
Keith Adams, LB (Carolina)
ND Kalu, DE (Houston)
Mike McMahon, QB (Minnesota)
Brad Childress, offensive coordinator (Minnesota – head coach)


Team Overview

After spending the early part of the decade on top of the NFC East and annually playing in the NFC Championship game, the 2005 Philadelphia Eagles were served a huge slice of humble pie. They lost the gamble that they could keep Terrell Owens in line, and the team was beset by injuries to many key players, including their leader, Donovan McNabb. The combination of Terrell Owens dividing the locker room, and the loss of McNabb (as well as most of his offensive line) sent this team into a downward spiral from which they could not recover. The team missed the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

To get back to the post-season, they’ll have to do so without Terrell Owens, who was predictably released after the season. Under Andy Reid, Philadelphia has never been exceptionally talented at the WR position, but “losing” Owens was a necessary move, as chemistry and locker room harmony outweigh the million dollar talent/five-cent head that is “T.O.”. After all, this was a team that went to 4 straight NFC title games without Owens. All of which were done with ordinary wide receiving talent.

The inactivity in January meant that Brad Childress could finally interview for head coaching gigs, and he got one, as he is now the head coach in Minnesota. Another former Mike Holmgren protégé, Marty Mohrningweg takes over for those duties. He’s familiar with Andy Reid’s style, as both were assistants under Holmgren in Green Bay.

The prevailing thought is that Philadelphia needs to be a more balanced attack. The personnel, however, does not indicate that they’ll even attempt to do so. The short passing game is their running game. Brian Westbrook is best receiver they have, so getting the ball to him in the flat is the same to Reid as a straight handoff. The wide receiving corps is as pedestrian as they come, and that works for this offense. Sure, they’d love a dynamic offensive weapon like Terrell Owens, but at what cost? With Todd Pinkston, Reggie Brown, Greg Lewis and tight ends LJ Smith and Matt Schobel, there’s enough to talent to execute the offense Reid is more comfortable running.

With Jimmy Johnson coordinating the defense, everyone knows what to expect. Lots of blitz packages with man-to-man coverage on the outside. Personnel-wise, this Eagles team is as talented as group Johnson has had to coach. They’ve added Darren Howard, a pass-rushing defensive end who’ll pair nicely with Jevon Kearse. Behind them, they’ve got another emerging pass-rusher in Trent Cole, who had 5 sacks as a rookie a year ago. Jeremiah Trotter is one o the best middle linebackers in the NFL, and this is a unit that expects to make life difficult on opposing running backs. The secondary is loaded with Pro Bowl-caliber talent, as well.

If Philadelphia remains healthy, they have as good a shot at making the post-season as everyone else in the NFC. This is a veteran group that knows what it takes to make the post-season. The question is can they do that now that everyone else in their division has caught up to them?


Three & Out

  • The biggest change on offense, besides the absence of Terrell Owens, is at center. Jamaal Jackson started the last 8 games in 2005, and has been working with the top unit ever since. Hank Fraley had started the previous 63 games for Philadelphia, and to his credit, hasn’t made losing his starting job a distraction in training camp. He has expressed that if he isn’t starting, he’d like to be traded to a team in need of a veteran center. Cleveland immediately comes to mind, and quite frankly, the Eagles owe it Fraley to at least explore the possibility of a trade.

  • With Keith Adams departing via free agency, 2nd year linebacker Matt McCoy will step in as the starter on the weakside. McCoy has never started an NFL game, and has just 3 tackles on his NFL resume.  

  • How unbalanced was the Eagles offense in 2005? In his 9 starts, Donovan McNabb averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game. In those same 9 games, Brian Westbrook averaged just 12 carries per game.

Fantasy Island

If there was one player who benefited from the Eagles telling You Know Who that he was free to do as many sit-ups in his driveway as he wanted, it was Reggie Brown.

Suddenly thrust into the starting lineup, the rookie wideout responded with 34 catches for 463 yards and 4 touchdowns in the season’s final 9 weeks. Much of that was done while Donovan McNabb was also out of the lineup. Expecting a 70-catch/1,000-yard season with 6-8 touchdowns out of Brown is not unreasonable.





Koren Robinson Drops Another Pass

If you watched ESPN's debut presentation of Monday Night Football the other night, each of the broadcasters (Mike Tirico, Tony Kornheiser and Joe Theismann) rained down praise on Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Koren Robinson for the 26-year old's dedication to turning his life around.

The former 1st round pick of the Seattle Seahawks in 2001 has battled his own personal demons, namely alcohol, for several years. Seahawks head coach Mike Holmgren, and the organization as a whole, was more than patient with Robinson, but had no choice but to release him following a spring 2005 DWI arrest.

Robinson entered rehab and began the long process of turning his life around. The Minnesota Vikings took a chance on him, and he was a lone bright spot on a scandal-laden team, earning Pro Bowl honors as kick returner. The club felt confident enough in Robinson's turn-around that they rewarded him with a new 3-year, $5.5M contract.

All those positive feelings could vanish with the news that Koren Robinson is currently in jail on suspicion of drunk driving.

If the allegations are true, it'll be another sad chapter in Robinson's NFL career. More importantly, it would be a sign that Robinson is losing his battle with sobriety, and perhaps he can't adequately fight his demons and play in the NFL at the same time.




Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Denver Broncos - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 13-3 (1st in AFC West; Lost to Pittsburgh in AFC Championship game)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 5th (18th pass; 2nd run)
Defense: 15th (29th pass; 2nd run)

Head Coach: Mike Shanahan (122-74, 8-5 in post-season, including wins in Super Bowls XXXII and XXXIII). Entering 12th season as head coach of the Denver Broncos (114-62), and 14th season as an NFL head coach.  

2006 Draft Class

1.11 – QB, Jay Cutler (Vanderbilt)
2.61 – TE, Tony Scheffler (Western Michigan)
4.119 – WR, Brandon Marshall (Central Florida)
4.126 – DE, Elvis Dumervil (Louisville)
4.130 – WR, Domenik Hixon (Akron)
5.161 – OG, Chris Kuper (North Dakota)
6.198 – C, Greg Eslinger (Minnesota)

Arrivals

Kenard Lang, DE (Cleveland)
Javon Walker, WR (Green Bay)

Departures

Mike Anderson, RB (Baltimore)
Monsanto Pope, DT (NY Jets)
Trevor Pryce, DE (Baltimore)
Jeb Putzier, TE (Houston)
Lenny Walls, CB (Kansas City)
Gary Kubiak, offensive coordinator (Houston – Head Coach)


Team Overview

As the statistical rankings show, Denver was very proficient in two things: Running the football, and stopping the run. That combination usually leads to one thing: Wins.

After a dismal showing in a 34-10 season-opening loss to Miami, Denver went 13-2, unseated the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Patriots before running out of steam against the eventual Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. All in all, it was a very successful season for Mike Shanahan’s crew.

Denver was active in the off-season, presumably laying down the foundation for the future. They drafted Jay Cutler, who is expected to replace Jake Plummer after the 2006 season. With Rod Smith showing (minimal) signs of slowing down, and Ashley Lelie showing (minimal) signs of being able to step into the role of “go-to guy”, Denver acquired Javon Walker from the Green Bay Packers. Walker was upset with his contract, and missed nearly all of last season with a knee injury. Denver will be counting on Walker to be a game-breaking receiving option for Plummer (2006) and Cutler (2007 and beyond).

Also cut loose was last year’s leading rusher, Mike Anderson, who was signed by the Baltimore Ravens. Anderson split duties last year with Tatum Bell and occasionally Ron Dayne. This year, Denver has added undrafted rookie free agent Mike Bell to the mix, and he’s currently in front of Tatum Bell and Dayne on the depth chart. Hey, in Denver, it’s all about the system, right?

The key ingredient to the offensive line remains intact. Matt Lepsis, Ben Hamilton, Tom Nalen, Cooper Carlisle and George Foster may not make many trips to Honolulu, but as a unit, they open many holes for whatever running back is playing that day. You’ve got to admire that consistency.

Last year, the Broncos gambled by re-working 75% of the front four with castaways from the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland was shifting to a 3-4 alignment, and those players were deemed expendable. Well, in Denver, they only helped keep blockers away from an excellent trio of linebackers, and the Broncos were the stingiest team in the NFL against the run. This year, they add another former Brown, Kenard Lang, to the mix at defensive end.

The secondary is a mixture of veterans (John Lynch, Champ Bailey) and young draft picks (Darrent Williams, Dominique Foxworth, Karl Paymah), and while the Broncos ranked near the bottom in passing defense, it is a group that is capable of creating turnovers. Champ Bailey, who played most of 2005 with a bum shoulder, might be the best cornerback in the entire league.

I wrote off Denver a year ago, but honestly, did anyone think Jake Plummer would attempt nearly 500 passes and throw only 7 interceptions? You’d have to be related to the quarterback to think that! Given the state of their AFC West rivals, Denver is the favorite to wear the AFC West crown once again.

Three & Out

  • The last time Jake Plummer threw fewer than 10 interceptions in a season, he played in just 11 games. The year after, he responded with 20 INTs. His name is synonymous with erratic quarterback play, and “pressure” is not something he’s known to thrive under. With the team drafting a QB in the 1st round, it’ll be very interesting to see how Jake the Snake responds in 2006. There is no doubt that is job is on the line.

  • Speaking of Jay Cutler, he couldn’t possibly have had a better pre-season debut. In just over a quarter of work, the rookie QB from Vanderbilt was 16-22 for 192 yards and tossed a pretty touchdown pass on a fade pattern. Many NFL observers, including myself, felt that Cutler, and not Matt Leinart or Vince Young, was the most NFL-ready of the quarterbacks available in April’s draft. So far, he’s proving us right.

  • One area the Broncos would like to improve in is putting pressure on opposing QBs. Denver managed just 28 a year ago, which ranked Denver near the bottom of the NFL in that category. Three players tied for the team lead with just 4 sacks, one of whom being safety John Lynch. Applying more pressure with their front four would lead to more turnovers for an already ball-hawking secondary.

Fantasy Island

It’s obvious that Mike Shanahan hates fantasy football. How else can you explain why he goes with the “running back by committee” approach? Here’s a tip for you: Let someone else draft Mike Bell, the undrafted rookie currently projected to start. Wait until later on and grab the other Bell (Tatum) when no one’s looking.




Kansas City Chiefs - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 10-6 (2nd in AFC West)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 1st (6th pass; 4th run)
Defense: 25th (30th pass; 7th run)

Head Coach: Herm Edwards (39-41, 2-3 in post-season); Entering 6th season as NFL head coach; Entering 1st season as head coach in Kansas City.

2006 Draft Class

1.20 – DE, Tamba Hali (Penn State)
2.54 – DB, Bernard Pollard (Purdue)
3.85 – QB, Brodie Croyle (Alabama)
5.154 – DB, Marcus Maxey (Miami)
6.186 – OG, Tre Stallings (Ole Miss)
6.190 – WR, Jeff Webb (San Diego State)
7.228 – DB, Jarrad Page (UCLA)

Arrivals

Herm Edwards, head coach (NY Jets)
Ty Law, CB (NY Jets)
Lenny Walls, CB (Denver)
Chris Johnson, CB (St. Louis)
Ron Edwards, DT (Buffalo)
Terrence Metcalf, OG (Chicago)
Kyle Turley, OT

Departures

Dick Vermeil, head coach (retirement)
Al Saunder, offensive coordinator (Washington)
Willie Roaf, OT (retirement)
Jon Welbourn, OT (retirement)
Shawn Barber, LB (Philadelphia)
Todd Collins, QB (Washington)
Chris Horn, WR (New Orleans)
Marc Boerigter, WR (Green Bay)
Tony Richardson, FB (Minnesota)
Eric Warfield, CB (New England)


Team Overview

Herm Edwards replaces beloved head coach, Dick Vermeil, whose 5 years in Kansas City resulted in a 44-36 record, and one playoff loss. With a talented offense, and a “passionate” head coach, the Chiefs were always pre-season favorites to make the playoffs. The reality was that the highly productive offense (led the NFL in yardage the past two years, and never ranked lower than 5th under Vermeil and Saunders) wasn’t enough to mask the inadequacies on the defensive side of the ball.

Enter Herm Edwards, Carl Peterson’s handpicked replacement for the retiring Vermeil. Edwards has a defensive background (former defensive back and coach), and his first order of business will be to restore a defense that hasn’t ranked in the Top 10 since 1998. Edwards imprint can be seen in this year’s draft, which produced a defensive end in the 1st round (Hali) and three defensive backs, two of whom (Pollard and Page) who could be starting by season’s end.

After the 2004 season, the Chiefs brought in veterans Patrick Surtain, Sammy Knight and Kendrell Bell, and drafted linebacker Derrick Johnson in the 1st round, in an effort to improve the defense. To an extent, it worked. Statistically, the Chiefs improved across the board. But there were still glaring holes on the defense, particularly at cornerback. The team hopes to have addressed that by signing Ty Law on the eve of training camp. Law is coming off a Pro Bowl season where he hauled in 10 interceptions, but his best days are well behind him. You don’t get 10 interceptions if opposing quarterbacks aren’t throwing on you.

The Chiefs would like to be entering 2006 with minimal changes on the offensive side of the ball, but as if the uncertain football future of running back Priest Holmes, the abrupt retirement of both starting tackles leaves the offense in an unfamiliar position. Jon Welbourn was reportedly staring down the barrel of a league-imposed suspension, and Willie Roaf decided to go back to school and end his potential Hall-of-Fame career just days into training camp. This leaves Kevin Sampson and Kyle Turley as the starting tackles on what was once considered the league’s best offensive line. Turley hasn’t played an NFL down since 2003. It’s not a question of how the new starting bookends will gel with the interior lineman (Brian Waters, Casey Weigmann, Will Shields), but if they gel, will it even matter?

The loss of Holmes affects the depth chart more than anything else. Holmes wasn’t going to start this season, as 4th-year running back Larry Johnson stepped in during 2005 and put up nearly 1800 yards and 21 touchdowns. Right now, he’s the best pure runner in the NFL.

Trent Green returns as the starting quarterback, and Tony Gonzalez will once again be his biggest target. Samie Parker, Eddie Kennison, Dante Hall all return at the wide receiver position.

Before training camp, Kansas City was my clear-cut pick to win the AFC West. It’s not so clear-cut to me anymore with the retirement of Willie Roaf. I’m aware that Johnson was very productive with Jordan Black playing in place of an injured Roaf last year, but I’m not as confident in the line’s overall ability to protect Green and open lanes for Johnson as I would be with Welbourn and Roaf in the lineup.

The team even appears to be in denial over this prospect, as Carl Peterson refuses to rule Roaf out for 2006. If this team can somehow convince Roaf to re-consider his decision, they’ll win the West. If not, the defense could finally turn in a good performance, and they still might not make the playoffs.



Three & Out

- It’s been 5 seasons since a Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver has caught more than 70 passes in a season. Granted, Tony Gonzalez has been an All-Pro tight end during that stretch, but wouldn’t the Chiefs offense been more dangerous with a wide receiver capable of stretching the field?

Since 2000, the Chiefs have invested just two first-day draft choices on a wide receiver: Sylvester Morris, a 1st round pick in 2000, and Marvin “Snoop” Minnis, a 3rd round pick in 2001. Both players’ careers were cut short by injury, and the two combined to play in 31 games, combined for 82 receptions for 1193 yards and 4 TDs. So you can see why Carl Peterson has been a bit gun shy to pull the trigger on another one.

With an aging Eddie Kennison as the team’s lone WR threat, the time has come for Peterson to focus on this position early in the 2007 draft.

- Last year’s 1st round pick, Derrick Johnson, started all 16 games in his rookie season. Johnson has the talent to develop into a Pro Bowl-caliber linebacker, and don’t be surprised if it’s this year.


- One of the more unknown players in the NFL is defensive end Jared Allen, who the team chose in the 4th round of the 2004 draft. All Allen has done the last two seasons is register 20 sacks. In an age where top pass rushers are coming from the left side of the defensive line, Allen lines up across from, and continually beats, the opposing team’s left tackle.

Fantasy Island

The best player in fantasy football, until proven otherwise, is Larry Johnson. You’ll need to have the 1st pick (or 2nd pick if you’re in a league with a Seahawks or Chargers fan) to get him.

So since you may not have that top choice, keep an eye on Trent Green. Yeah, he’s 36, and no, he won’t get you any rushing yards or touchdowns. But Green consistently throws for nearly 4000 yards and 20+ touchdowns, and you can feel comfortable starting him at QB.

San Diego Chargers - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 9-7 (3rd in AFC West)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 10th (12th pass; 9th run)
Defense: 13th (28th pass; 1st run)

Head Coach: Marty Schottenheimer (186-124-1, 5-12 in the post-season); Entering 5th season as Chargers head coach (33-31, 0-1 in post-season), and 21st season as an NFL head coach.  

2006 Draft Class

1.19 – DB, Antonio Cromartie (Florida State)
2.50 – OT, Marcus McNeil (Auburn)
3.81 – QB, Charlie Whitehurst (Clemson)
5.151 – LB, Tim Dobbins (Iowa State)
6.187 – OT, Jeromey Clary (Kansas State)
6.188 – K, Kurt Smith (Virginia)
7.225 – DT, Chase Page (North Carolina)
7.227 – C, Jimmy Martin (Virginia Tech)

Arrivals

Marlon McCree, S (Carolina)
Aaron Shea, TE (Cleveland)

Departures

Drew Brees, QB (New Orleans)
Reche Caldwell, WR (New England)
Jamar Fletcher, CB (Detroit)
Ben Leber, LB (Minnesota)
Justin Peelle, TE (Miami)


Team Overview

After a 2004 season where the Chargers narrowly lost to the New York Jets in an AFC Wild Card game, the 2005 Chargers were supposed to take the next step. They were widely predicted to win the division, thanks to their tough, physical defense and high-powered, and balanced, offensive attack.

So how did the Chargers manage to go 9-7 and miss the playoffs? Sprinkled in between some blowout wins were some close losses. Enough close losses that the Chargers entered Week 8 with a 3-4 record. When they finally got going, and railed off 5 straight wins, they inexplicably lost 3 out of their last 4 games, and with that, their playoff hopes. To add injury to insult, their starting quarterback, Drew Brees, was lost to a shoulder injury in the season finale, a thoroughly meaningless game, as their playoff fate had already been determined.

After the season, the trendy opinion in NFL circles was that if the San Diego Chargers were in the NFC, they’d be in the playoffs. Ironically, had the team beaten two non-playoff teams from the NFC (Dallas and Philadelphia), and took care of business at home against Pittsburgh, they would’ve finished 12-4 and made the post-season. I suppose it’s easier to conjure up “if only” scenarios then it is to accept that you failed.

Statistically, the Chargers were better than their 9-7 record. LaDanian Tomlinson, the best all-around running back in the NFL, had a fantastic season, running for more than 1400 yards and accounting for 23 touchdowns (including 3 passing). Drew Brees’ interception total crept up a bit, but overall, he was just as good as he was in his 2004 coming out party. Recievers Eric Parker, Keenan McCardell and tight end Gates all improved on their 2005 numbers.

With the exception of Brees, all return for the 2006 season. Philip Rivers, who the team acquired in the Eli Manning draft day trade back in 2004, takes over as the team’s starting quarterback. Rivers has never started an NFL game, and has thrown just 30 passes in his career, so it will be interesting to see how quickly he develops this season.

If the Chargers hope to get to the post-season, they’ll need to hitch a ride on the backs of their defense. San Diego’s 3-4 alignment is very tough against the run, and when opponents pass, the Chargers have the pass-rushing linebackers to apply constant pressure on the quarterback. Led by the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Shawne Merriman, the Chargers produced 46 sacks a year ago. Still, the Bolts finished 28th against the pass, thanks in large part to an erratic secondary. The team used its 1st round pick on Florida State defensive back Antonio Cromartie, and added veteran safety Marlon McCree via free agency, in an effort to improve this unit.

If the defense can improve against the pass, and if Rivers is as good as GM AJ Smith thinks he is, the Chargers could possibly make the post-season in 2006. To me, however, it’s two more “what ifs” for a team that just spent an entire off-season wondering “what if” to anyone who would listen.


Three & Out

  • After the drafts in 2004 and 2005 produced instant starters like Merriman, Luis Castillo, Igor Olshansky, Shane Olivea and Nick Hardwick, not a single member of the 2006 draft class is expected to contribute much this year. Only one, Antonio Cromarties, figures to significant playing time in 2006.

  • Keep an eye out for 2005’s 2nd round pick, WR Vincent Jackson. At 6-5, 241 pounds, and enough speed to run after the catch, the Northern Colorado prospect seems ready to have a breakout season in 2006.

  • This could be Marty Schottenheimer’s final season in San Diego. Rumors abound that he and GM AJ Smith do not see eye-to-eye, with many pointing to Drew Brees starting last year’s finale instead of starting Philip Rivers, denying the GM and others to see what Rivers can do in an NFL game.

Fantasy Island

Everyone should remember what happened on October 23rd, 2005. That’s the day LaDanian Tomlinson handled the ball 21 times for a net total of 33 yards. Philadelphia stacked the line of scrimmage against San Diego, and held Tomlinson to a career-low 7 yards and 17 carries.

With Philip Rivers starting at quarterback this year, look for opposing defense to employ similar strategies.

Does that mean you shouldn’t take Tomlinson with one of the 1st three picks in your league’s draft? No, he’s still the best running back in the league and you should select him if he’s there…but not ahead of Shaun Alexander, and definitely not ahead of Larry Johnson.  

Oakland Raiders - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 4-12 (4th in AFC West)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 21st (10th pass; 29th run)
Defense: 27th (18th pass; 25th run)

Head Coach: Art Shell (54-38, 0-2 in post-season); Entering 1st season as Oakland Raiders head coach. Was the head coach of the Los Angeles Raiders from 1989-1994.  

2006 Draft Class

1.7 – DB, Michael Huff (Texas)
2.38 – LB, Thomas Howard (UTEP)
3.69 – OG, Paul McQuistan (Weber State)
4.101 – DB, Darnell Bing (USC)
6.176 – OT, Kevin Boothe (Cornell)
7.214 – C, Chris Morris (Michigan State)
7.255 – WR, Kevin McMahan (Maine)

Arrivals

Aaron Brooks, QB (New Orleans)
Lance Johnstone, DE (Minnesota)
Tyone Poole, CB (New England)
Marcellus Rivers, TE (Houston)
Art Shell, head coach (parts unknown)

Departures

Renaldo Hill, S (Miami)
Kerry Collins, QB
Ted Washington, DT (Cleveland)
Charles Woodson, CB (Green Bay)

Team Overview

Since winning the AFC Championship in 2002, the Oakland Raiders have chewed through 2 head coaches, 2 starting quarterbacks, raided the free agent pantry and still had nothing to show for it. Oakland has suffered through one of the worst stretches in franchise history, amassing an embarrassing record of 13-35 in those three seasons. Al Davis has gone back in time and hired Art Shell to be the new head coach.

Shell inherits your typical Raiders team. Old in many areas, yet wildly undisciplined. As much as the Raiders market their “outlaw” mentality, the truth is that in order to win in the modern NFL, you cannot commit as many penalties as Raiders always do. So it’s up to Shell to turn the team around, and getting them to remain within the framework of NFL game rules would be an ideal place to start.

In the draft, Shell and Co. passed over promising young quarterbacks Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler to select Michael Huff, the reigning Thorpe Award recipient, an award given to the nation’s best defensive back. After losing Charles Woodson to free agency, adding Huff, a versatile defensive back, made too much sense to pass up.

Offensively, Shell and new offensive coordinator Tom Walsh have talented weapons like Randy Moss, Jerry Porter and Lamont Jordan. The problem, however, is the offensive line. This unit needs to play well for Oakland to generate points. Cutting down on penalties will allow the Raiders to run the ball more in 2006. Last year, the Raiders finished 31st in rushing attempts, despite the addition of a workhorse-type back in Jordan. Avoiding 1st and 15’s could go a long way to making this a balanced attack.

Aaron Brooks was signed to be the short-term answer at quarterback, while the team grooms their perceived long-term answer, Andrew Walters. Brooks isn’t an ideal steward, but he does a few things well that could help make the Raiders a potent passing attack. He’s got the ultimate weapon, Randy Moss, at wide receiver, and if the two develop a good rapport, they could produce some big plays. Disgruntled wideout Jerry Porter also returns, as does big-play threat Doug Gabriel.

The defense has talent, and has shown signs of improvement. The unit is coordinated by Rob Ryan (son of Buddy, twin brother of Rex, the Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator), who was retained by Art Shell after Norv Turner’s firing.

They’ve made some personnel tweaks that they hope will translate into better production. Tyler Brayton returns to his more natural defensive end spot, paired with Derrick Burgess and Warren Sapp and Tommie Kelly in the middle. Kirk Morrision, a promising 2nd year player, mans the middle of a youthful linebacking group that looks to start rookie Thomas Howard on the weak side. The secondary is loaded with 1st round talent. Nnamdi Asomugha, Fabian Washington, Derrick Gibson and Michael Huff are all 1st round picks, though only Washington has shown that ability when it counts.

The Raiders finished 2005 on a 7-game losing streak, and I wouldn’t expect much to change in 2006. Shell will be using this season to evaluate the Raiders, and not vice-versa. The Raiders never should’ve fired Shell back in 1994, and he is the right man to lead them back to glory. It’s up to each individual player to prove to him that they want to be a part of the rebuilding effort.


Three & Out

  • Thus far, Aaron Brooks has looked dreadful in pre-season. He’s been sacked more times than he’s completed a pass (3 sacks, 2 completions) and has looked absolutely lost at times. Even though Andrew Walter hasn’t exactly been lighting it up, his time to start may come sooner than later.

  • Kicker Sebastian Janikowski is coming the worst season in his career. He’s looked good thus far in pre-season, nailing all 3 of his field goal attempts over 50 yards.

  • One of the bigger tests for Shell will be handling the egos of his star players, something that has grown since the last time he patrolled an NFL sideline. Already, Oakland has been dealing with a disgruntled Jerry Porter, who asked to be traded. After last night’s pre-season game, Randy Moss expressed some dissatisfaction, as well. It’ll be very interesting to see how Shell deals with these off-field distractions.

Fantasy Island

On a roster with Randy Moss on it, can there really be a better fantasy option? The answer is a surprising “yes”.

With an erratic Aaron Brooks at quarterback, the best option on the team may be Lamont Jordan. You can expect Oakland to run the ball more in 2006, and if your league counts receptions, no running back caught more passes than Jordan did in 2005.

Indianapolis Colts - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 14-2 (1st in AFC South)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 3rd (3rd pass; 16th run)
Defense: 11th (15th pass; 16th run)

Head Coach: Tony Dungy (102-58, 5-8 in post-season); Entering 11th season as NFL head coach, and his 5th season as head coach for the Indianapolis Colts. Dungy’s regular season record with Indianapolis is 48-16, and he is 3-4 in the post-season.

2006 Draft Class

1.30 – RB, Joseph Addai (LSU)
2.62 – DB, Tim Jennings (Georgia)
3.94 – LB, Freddie Keiaho (San Diego State)
5.162 – OG, Michael Toudouze (TCU)
6.199 – OT, Charlie Johnson (Oklahoma State)
6.207 – DB, Antoine Bethea (Howard)
7.238 – DB, TJ Rushing (Stanford)

Arrivals

Adam Vinateiri, K (New England)

Departures

Mike Vanderjagt, K (Dallas)
Edgerrin James, RB (Arizona)
David Thornton, LB (Tennessee)
Larry Tripplett, DT (Buffalo)

Team Overview

From September to December, no NFL team has been more successful than the Indianapolis Colts have been the last 4 seasons. When the calendar changes into a new year, the Colts seem to change right along with it. Last year, the Colts were undefeated well into December before finally falling to San Diego at home. That week, the Colts not only lost a shot at joining the 1972 Miami Dolphins as the league’s only undefeated team, they lost a valuable member of the Colts family. James Dungy, head coach Tony Dungy’s son, took his own life less than a week before Christmas.  

Playing through a personal tragedy, the Colts finished an NFL-best 14-2, earning the #1-seed in the AFC playoffs. A tournament that would finish early for the Colts, as they lost at home to the eventual Super Bowl champions, the Pittsburgh Steelers, in an AFC Divisional playoff game. Indianapolis had a shot to tie the game and force overtime, but Mike Vanderjagt, the NFL’s all-time leader in field goal accuracy, missed his mark by a good 20 yards.

With little room under the salary cap, Indianapolis entered the off-season knowing that they could not afford to bring everyone back. Mike Vanderjagt, after his costly missed field goal, was long gone. The team also lacked the funds to re-sign Edgerrin James and David Thornton, and both signed lucrative contracts elsewhere.

There was a silver lining in free agency, though, and it comes in the form of future Hall-of-Fame kicker Adam Vinateiri. Inexplicably not re-signed by New England, the most clutch kicker in NFL history was quickly signed by the Indianapolis Colts. After the way their 2005 season ended, adding Vinateiri was a major upgrade at a position that failed them miserably last January.

The loss of Edgerrin James should not be underestimated. He was a highly productive back during his years in Indianapolis, and the team would have re-signed him if they could afford to. Indianapolis is, however, very high on his replacements, Dominic Rhodes and rookie Joseph Addai, and since the offense runs through Peyton Manning, you can excuse the Colts for being confident that they won’t skip a beat without James in the backfield. Running back is the only position on offense that has changed.

On defense, the only personnel change was at David Thornton’s outside linebacker spot. He’ll be replaced by former 3rd round pick, Gilbert Gardner. For years, the defense was the Colts’ Achilles heel, but last year, the unit really pulled it together, ranking 11th in total defense (up from 29th the year before). The Colts also finished an eye-popping 2nd in points allowed. With the Colts high-octane offense, it’s not surprising that this team flirted with an undefeated season.

Expect more of the same in 2006. As long as the Colts have Peyton Manning, and his myriad of weapons (Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Brandon Stokley), they’re going to produce points. With a defense that is improving every year, sooner or later, the Colts are going to get to a Super Bowl. This may be their year to finally do so.


Three & Out

  • If anyone needs the importance of Adam Vinateiri’s signing explained to them just point him or her to the Colts pre-season opener. Vinateiri nailed a 53-yard FG with room to spare, perfectly executed an on-side kick attempt, and sailed two kickoffs into the end zone.

  • It’s doubtful that the Colts will head into this December with an undefeated record. Last year, their schedule was a bit easier, as they played the weak NFC West. This year the Colts play the NFC East, a division that features 4 tough defenses. The Colts also travel to Denver and Foxborough, two of the toughest places to win in the NFL, in back-to-back weeks in the middle of the season.

  • Speaking of the schedule, it’s clear that the NFL has a flair for the dramatic. Week 1 in the NFL is always an easy sell, but the league decided to make it even more interesting by sending the Colts into the Meadowlands to face the Giants, pitting Peyton against Eli for the 1st time in their respective careers.

Fantasy Island

There’s a downright historic connection between Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison, but don’t be surprised if Reggie Wayne surpasses Harrison in terms of production this season. It’s happened once already in the last two years, and Wayne has the ability to make a lot more happen after the catch than Harrison does right now.





Monday, August 14, 2006

Jacksonville Jaguars - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 12-4 (2nd in AFC South)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 15th (19th pass; 10th run)
Defense: 6th (7th pass; 14th run)

Head Coach: Jack Del Rio (26-22, 0-1 in the playoffs); Entering 4th season as Jaguars head coach.

2006 Draft Class

1.28 – TE, Marcedes Lewis (UCLA)
2.60 – RB, Maurice Jones-Drew (UCLA)
3.80 – LB, Clint Ingram (Oklahoma)
5.160 – DE, Brent Hawkins (Illinois State)
7.213 – DE, James Wyche (Syracuse)
7.236 – DB, Demetrice Webb (Florida)

Arrivals

Nick Greisen, LB (NY Giants)
Stocker McDougle, OT (Miami)
Brian Williams, CB (Minnesota)
Mike Williams, OT (Buffalo)
Mike Tice, assistant coach (Minnesota)
Troy Edwards, WR (Detroit)

Departures

Akin Ayodele, LB (Dallas)
Deke Cooper, S (Miami)
Mike Pearson, OT (Miami)
Ephraim Salaam, OT (Houston)
Jamie Winborn, LB (Tampa Bay)
Kenny Wright, CB (Washington)
Jimmy Smith, WR (retired)

Team Overview

After a 12-4 season, Jacksonville was still left with several holes on offense and defense to fill. However, none of the players they added in free agency are expected to start, and only Marcedes Lewis could press the guy above him on the depth chart in training camp. Even 2nd round pick Maurice Drew is buried deep on the Jaguars RB depth chart.

Jimmy Smith, the Jaguars all-time receiving leader, retired this off-season. Jacksonville cannot be accused of not preparing for Smith’s retirement, as they have selected a wide receiver with their 1st round pick in both 2004 (Reggie Williams) and 2005 (Matt Jones). Thus far, Williams has barely registered a blip on the NFL’s radar screen. In two seasons, he’s managed only 62 receptions and just 1 touchdown. He entered training camp behind Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford, who was a 4th round pick in 2004.

Throwing to this group of youthful wide receivers will be Byron Leftwich, who is coming off a season that saw him play in just 11 games, a career-low. Leftwich isn’t a mobile quarterback, and as tough as he is, he hasn’t been able to avoid missing time the last two years. This is part of the reason why Jacksonville acted quickly to keep backup David Garrard off the free agent market.

It’s no secret that the strength of the Jaguars team lies with massive tackles John Henderson and Marcus Stroud, both of whom have made trips to Honolulu in February. Their size makes them nearly unblockable by just one person, which frees up the athletic linebackers to make tackles. The lone weakness of defense has been the inconsistent play on the corners, which led the team to bring in Brian Williams to replace the departed Kenny Wright.

Jacksonville has too many question marks to be expected to catch Indianapolis, but this defense makes this a playoff-caliber team that should expect to play in January. They’ll need Leftwich and Taylor to remain healthy, and the receivers to mature quickly, for them to do any damage in that month.

Three & Out

  • The last player not named Jimmy Smith to lead the Jaguars in receiving was Willie Jackson, who’s been out of the league since 2002. Smith retires while ranked 7th all-time in receptions, and 11th all-time in receiving yardage.

  • The selection of Marcedes Lewis was an indication that the Jaguars recognize they need more production from the position. Under Jack Del Rio, no Jaguars tight end has caught 30 passes in a single season. Last year, none of their tight ends caught more than 20 passes. Lewis gives them a viable receiving threat from the position. Unfortunately, Lewis suffered a high ankle sprain in the Jaguars first pre-season game.

  • With Fred Taylor coming off another injury-marred season, and turning 30 (the age in which backs begin to break down), Jacksonville is well stocked at the position. Behind Taylor are LaBrandon Toefield, Maurice Jones-Drew and Alvin Pearman. Even fullback Greg Jones has shown that he can be effective carrying the ball, as he finished with nearly 600 yards rushing a year ago.


Fantasy Island

With Leftwich and Taylor having questionable injury histories, the best fantasy bet is…the Jaguars. Every fantasy teams needs a good one, and the Jags are one of the better options out there.

Last year, they allowed only 16.8 points per game (6th in the NFL), registered 47 sacks (t-3rd in NFL), had 28 takeaways and scored 3 touchdowns.





Tennessee Titans - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 4-12 (3rd in AFC South)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 17th (9th pass; 23rd run)
Defense: 19th (17th pass; 22nd run)

Head Coach: Jeff Fisher (97-85, 5-4 in the playoffs); Entering 13th season as Tennessee Titans/Houston Oilers head coach.

2006 Draft Class

1.3 – QB, Vince Young (Texas)
2.45 – RB, LenDale White (USC)
4.102 – DB, Calvin Lowry (Penn State)
4.116 – LB, Stephen Tulloch (NC State)
5.137 – LB, Terna Nande (Miami, OH)
5.169 – DT, Jesse Maholena (Tennessee)
6.172 – WR, Jonathan Orr (Wisconsin)
7.215 – DB, Cortland Finnegan (Samford)
7.245 – LB, Spencer Toone (Utah)
7.245 – RB, Quinton Ganther (Utah)

Arrivals

David Givens, WR (New England)
Chris Hope, DB (Pittsburgh)
Kevin Mawae, C (NY Jets)
David Thornton, LB (Indianapolis)

Departures

Justin Hartwig, C (Carolina)
Brad Kassell, LB (NY Jets)
Tank Williams, S (Minnesota)
Rocky Boiman, LB (Dallas)
Brad Hopkins, OT (released)
Steve McNair, QB (Baltimore)

Team Overview

From 2000-2003, the Tennessee Titans spent millions upon millions of dollars trying to keep their Super Bowl “window of opportunity” open. It resulted in some very good regular seasons, but they were never able to get back to the promise land. As a result, the Titans were salary cap hell, and over the last few seasons, many veterans were released for cap purposes, and as a result, the inexperienced Titans teams have gone 9-23.

Steve McNair, whose cap number was too high for the generally low expectations the Titans have for 2006, was traded away to the Baltimore Ravens this off-season, signifying that the Titans officially conceded that the rebuilding effort is underway.

While Titans are now building around 1st round draft pick Vince Young, the starting quarterback, for now anyways, is Billy Volek, a 6th year veteran who hasn’t had much of an opportunity to play sitting behind McNair. Tennessee added a veteran target, David Givens, though free agency, and when paired with Drew Bennett, Volek has a pair of sure-handed wideouts to throw to. Behind them are guys like Tyrone Calico, Roydell Williams and Brandon Jones, who have the potential to develop into solid NFL wide receivers.

The Titans drafted running back LenDale White in the 2nd round, a sure sign that they do not view either Chris Brown or Travis Henry as the long-term solution at the position. Unless Brown is traded, White’s role will be relegated to goal line and short yardage situations. He’s a big, bruising back with a nose for the end zone.

Defensively, the Titans figure to improve in 2006. David Thornton gives Tennessee a very talented trio of linebackers, and Kyle Vanden Bosch had a monster season rushing the passer. They’ve got a solid front 7, and a pretty decent secondary, led by second-year corner Pacman Jones. The issue with the defense is depth. It’s not a unit that can afford any injuries to the starters, particularly at cornerback or linebacker.

Sharing a division with Indianapolis and Jacksonville makes the playoffs seem like a pipedream, but Tennessee has the coaching and defense to improve on last year’s 4-12 record. I’m sure Tennessee, and their fans, will take a 6-10/7-9 season, with Vince Young eventually stepping in as the starter towards the end of the season.

Three & Out

  • After 4 sacks over 4 seasons in Arizona, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch burst onto the scene in 2005 with 12.5 sacks, earning Pro Bowl honors for the 1st time in his career. Vanden Bosch signed a 4-year/$22M deal, including $14.5M in guaranteed money, in the off-season.

  • LenDale White isn’t making many friends in his rookie campaign. According to reports out of Titans camp, White has been involved in a few scuffles, and apparently spit in backup safety Donnie Nickey’s face. While tempers will flare up in every NFL camp, spitting at an opposing player is major faux pas in the NFL world.

  • The 1st pre-season game was an indication that Vince Young has to alter his playing style a bit now that he’s in the NFL. He was able to rely on his rare combination of size and athleticism in college, but in the NFL, it’ll be a different story. With Daunte Culpepper coming off a severe knee injury, Young needs to realize that it could easily happen to him now that he’s playing with the big boys.

Fantasy Island

With Volek back as the Titans starting quarterback, nobody should benefit more than Drew Bennett.

Bennett’s breakout season in 2004 was due in part to Billy Volek taking over for an injured Steve McNair at quarterback. The two obviously have a good rapport, and with David Givens operating underneath, it should open things up downfield for the duo that combined for 8 touchdowns in a 3-week span late in the 2004 season.





Thursday, August 10, 2006

Houston Texans - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 2-14 (4th in AFC South)

2005 Rankings
Offense:
30th (30th pass; 15th run)
Defense:
31st (24th pass; 32nd run)

Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (0-0); Entering 1st season as an NFL head coach.

2006 Draft Class

1.1 – DE, Mario Williams (NC State)
2.33 – LB, Demeco Ryans (Alabama)
3.65 – OT, Charles Spencer (Pittsburgh
3.66 – OT, Eric Winston (Miami)
4.98 – TE, Owen Daniels (Wisconsin)
6.170 – RB, Wali Lundy (Virginia)
7.251 – WR, David Anderson (Colorado State)

Arrivals

Gary Kubiak, Head Coach (Denver)
Anthony Weaver, DE (Baltimore)
Sam Cowart, LB (Minnesota)
Mike Flanagan, C (Green Bay)
ND Kalu, DE (Philadelphia)
Jeb Putzier, TE (Denver)
Ephraim Salaam, OT (Jacksonville)
Kevin Walter, WR (Cincinnati)
Jameel Cook, FB (Tampa Bay)

Departures

Corey Bradford, WR (Detroit)
Milford
Brown, OG (Arizona)
Marcus Coleman, S (Dallas)
Jabar Gaffney, WR (Philadelphia)


Team Overview

At some point, an NFL franchise needs to shed the “expansion team” label. As the Texans entered their 4th season fresh off a franchise-best 7-9 record, 2005 was supposed to be that year.

They responded with a 2-14 effort that led to the team (finally) firing their 1st head coach, Dom Capers, who led them to an 18-46 record during his tenure. Great defensive coordinator, horrible head coach. A change was in order, and the Texans smartly hired Broncos offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak to replace the ineffective Capers.

Being a former NFL quarterback, and more recently an offensive coordinator, Kubiak needed to make a quick assessment on the talent on the roster. The team owed David Carr a sizeable roster bonus, and many questioned whether or not Kubiak would want to make a change at the position. After looking at the tape, Kubiak soon realized that the problem wasn’t Carr, it was a combination of the system and the talent around the former #1 pick.

Houston has had talent at the skill positions (Carr, Domanick Davis, Andre Johnson), but that’s been it. Carr had been sacked more times the last few years than Jenna Jameson, and Kubiak took steps to improve that group. In free agency, he snagged former Packers center Mike Flanagan, and in the draft, they used consecutive 3rd round picks on a pair of promising tackles (Charles Spencer & Eric Winston). With Jabar Gaffney heading off to Philadelphia, Kubiak traded for disgruntled Bills wideout Eric Moulds, who provides Carr with a savvy veteran target. After getting just 28 receptions from the tight end position in 2005, Kubiak brought Jeb Putzier with him from Denver. Putzier hauled in 37 catches a year ago, and his knowledge of the scheme will help immensely.

The one player on offense who seemed to be in the most trouble of retaining his starting job was Domanick Davis. The former 4th round pick was coming off an injury-plagued season and Houston had won the “Reggie Bush Sweepstakes” in 2005. The former Trojan star was theirs if they wanted him. The night before the draft, Davis got his stay of execution. The team had agreed to a contract with NC State defensive end Mario Williams, and he, not Reggie Bush, would be the #1 pick of the 2006 NFL Draft.

Many were, and still are, critical of the Texans for passing on Reggie Bush. Heck, some are still criticizing the team for not selecting former Longhorn QB Vince Young with the top pick. But this was the right move for this team, right now. The talent is already there on offense, and Kubiak (who comes from a franchise that believes it’s the system, not the player) recognized that defensive ends like Mario Williams do not come around too often.

Over the last three off-seasons, the Texans have rebuilt their front 4. Williams will start opposite Jason Babin, giving the Texans versatile defensive ends. Both are athletic enough to line up at outside linebacker and are not out of place in coverage. Inside, the newly signed Anthony Weaver (who played DE in Baltimore) joins former Titan Robaire Smith in a rotation with 2005 1st round pick Travis Johnson and Seth Payne. Adding depth are Antwan Peek and special team ace ND Kalu.

Sam Cowart was brought in to provide some veteran leadership to the defense, and he’ll start at middle linebacker. Flanking him are Morlon Greenwood (last year’s leading tackler) and Shantee Orr, whose 7 sacks led the Texans in 2005. Newcomer Demeco Ryans could make an immediate impact this season. With a vastly improved front seven, the life as a Houston Texan defensive back should be much more pleasant this season.

While fans in Houston have plenty of reasons to be optimistic, they need to realize that teams don’t go from 2-14 to the Super Bowl in one season. There will be some growing pains, especially in a division with heavyweights like Indianapolis and Jacksonville. This is an improving team, though, and getting 5-6 wins this year would be a big step forward.

Three & Out

- Last year’s starting cornerbacks, Phillip Buchanon and Dunta Robinson, combined for just 1 interception in 2005. With an improved pass rush, that number should at least, um, double in 2006.

- Keep an eye on WR Kevin Walter. He’s a big, physical wideout who was impressive in limited duty in Cincinnati. Houston signed him as a restricted free agent, so he must’ve opened Kubiak’s eyes on tape.

- One of the more underrated signings made by Houston was fullback Jameel Cook. He didn’t have a single carry in 2005, which should tell you that he’s paid to block, not handle the rock. Adding that element to the Texans offense could mean bigger numbers for Domanick Davis.

Fantasy Island

With the addition of Eric Moulds, teams will no longer be able to focus on Andre Johnson. After a season where he broke out with 79 receptions, 1142 yards and 6 scores, Johnson posted just 63 catches for less than 700 yards and only two touchdowns.

Use this to your advantage. The rest of the owners in your league have likely soured on him, so when the initial wave of wideouts are taken, take Johnson and feel like the smartest guy/gal in the room.


Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Cincinnat Bengals - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 11-5 (1st in AFC North; Lost to Pittsburgh in AFC Wild Card game)

2005 Rankings
Offense:
6th (5th pass; 11th run)
Defense:
28th (26th pass; 20th run)

Head Coach: Marvin Lewis (27-21, 0-1 in playoffs); Entering 4th season as Cincinnati Bengals head coach.

2006 Draft Class
1.24 – CB, Johnathan Joseph (South Carolina)
2.55 – OT, Andrew Whitworth (LSU)
3.91 – DE, Frostee Rucker (USC)
4.123 – DT, Domata Peko (Michigan State)
5.157 – LB, AJ Nicholson (Florida State)
6.193 – QB, Reggie McNeal (Texas A&M)
7.209 – WR, Ethan Kilmer (Penn State)
7.231 – WR, Bennie Brazell (LSU)

Arrivals
Sam Adams, DT (Buffalo)
Dexter Jackson, S (Tampa Bay)
Anthony Wright, QB (Baltimore)
Antonio Chatham, WR (Green Bay)

Departures
Jon Kitna, QB (Detroit)
Matt Schobel, TE (Philadelphia)
Kevin Walter, WR (Houston)

Team Overview

Who could blame the fans in Cincinnati for spending the off-season wondering “What if?” What if Eric Steinbach wasn’t knocked back 2 yards by Kimo von Oelhoffen? What if Rich Braham had gotten over in time to help Steinbach seal Palmer’s blindside? What if von Oelhoffen didn’t lunge at the knee on Palmer’s plant leg, tearing the ACL and MCL in the knee and knocking Palmer, one of the best young QBs the NFL has seen in a very long time, out of that playoff game? Would their season have ended that day, or would they have gone on to play Denver next week?

The obvious answer is that we never know what would’ve happened. But after a 2005 season where Cincinnati was 11-2 before Christmas, there’s a good chance that they could’ve won Marvin Lewis’ 1st playoff game as an NFL head coach.

The off-season in Cincinnati was spent monitoring two things: The rehabilitation of Carson Palmer’s left knee, and the incarceration of several of Palmer’s teammates. Palmer’s knee is reportedly coming along nicely, though there’s still some question whether he’ll be able to play in Kansas City on September 10th. As for the various members of the Bengals showing up in the police blotter, it’s a problem that is going to seriously hamper the Bengals chances to repeat as AFC North champions.

Leading the way in the arrest department is WR Chris Henry, the team’s 3rd round draft choice from a year ago, who has been charged with 5 offenses in the last 9 months. Last year’s 2nd round pick, LB Odell Thurman, has been suspended by the NFL for 4 games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and the word around NFL circles is that Thurman’s career is in serious jeopardy.

Continuing with the “turd” theme, two of this year’s draft picks have had brushes with the law. DE Frostee Rucker, “Who Dey” took in the 3rd round this year, is facing charges of spousal battery, which the team knew about before selecting him. The team’s 5th round pick, LB AJ Nicholson, burglarized his old apartment after being drafted into the NFL. Over the weekend, the aforementioned Eric Steinbach was charged with boating under the influence during an off-day during training camp, and has pleaded “Not Guilty” to those charges.

Can the Bengals overcome these obstacles, band together and prove that they’re capable of winning the AFC North? Few NFL teams can overcome one or two players facing legal issues due to off-field transgressions, and the Bengals are about to start a season with 6 different players facing legal battles or league-ordered vacations.

If there’s a bright side to be found, it’s where on the depth chart these turds rate. Aside from Steinbach and Thurman, none of the players involved were expected to start in 2006. If Palmer is healthy, the Bengals 6th-ranked offense returns all its starters. And as long as you have Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh outside, Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry in the backfield, and an underrated offensive line, the Bengals are going to put up points on the scoreboard.

Defensively, this team is a mystery. Marvin Lewis made a name for himself by coordinating Super Bowl-caliber defenses, but his Bengals teams have never ranked higher than 19th in total defense, and last year, were an abysmal 28th. This year, they could possibly line up six 1st round picks on defense (Sam Adams, Justin Smith, David Pollack, Brian Simmons, Deltha O’Neal, Johnathan Joseph), and with talent like that, finished 28th would be a colossal disappointment.

The 2006 Cincinnati Bengals will go as Carson Palmer can take them. He’s a good, potentially great, quarterback, and as an NFL fan, you want him to return at 100%. If he is healthy, this is the team to beat in the AFC North, as it’s the only offense in the division capable of scoring 30+ points on a weekly basis, regardless of who the opponent is.

Three & Out

- The “No Fun League” has returned, as the league will attempt to curtail elaborate end zone celebrations. Still, you can be sure that 15 yards or a possible fine won’t stop Chad Johnson from entertaining the masses.

- Should Carson Palmer be unable to start the season, the Bengals will turn to journeyman Anthony Wright, who they signed to replace Jon Kitna as the backup QB. If there’s one thing that Wright does exceptionally well at the quarterback position, it’s throwing the deep ball.

- The Bengals defense should get a huge boost with the return of David Pollack, whose rookie season was marred by injury. Pollack played very well at the end of the season, and the team needs him to continue that high level of play.

Fantasy Island

Want consistency? Check out these receiving numbers over the last 3 seasons:

Year – Rec–Yards-TD
2003 – 90 - 1355 – 10
2004 – 95 – 1274 – 9
2005 – 97 – 1432 – 9

Chad Johnson is one of the Top 5 wide receivers in the NFL. Don’t be scared away from taking #85 if Palmer isn’t expected to start the season. Those 2003 numbers were from when Jon Kitna was the Bengals starter.


Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Pittsburgh Steelers - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 11-5 (2nd in AFC North; Super Bowl XL Champions)

2005 Rankings
Offense:
16th (24th pass; 5th run)
Defense: 4th (16th pass; 3rd run)

Head Coach: Bill Cowher (141-82-1, 12-9 playoffs, including Super Bowl XL win); Entering 15th season as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

2006 Draft Class
1.25 – WR, Santonio Holmes (Ohio State)
3.83 – DB, Anthony Smith (Syracuse)
3.95 – WR, Willie Reid (Florida State)
4.131 – OG, Willie Colon (Hofstra)
4.133 – DT, Orien Harris (Miami)
5.164 – QB, Omar Jacobs (Bowling Green)
5.167 – TE, Charles Davis (Purdue)
6.201 – C, Melvin Phillip (Cal)
7.240 – RB, Cedric Humes (Virginia Tech)

Arrivals
Rodney Bailey, DE (Seattle)
Ryan Clark, S (Washington)

Departures
Jerome Bettis, RB (retired)
Chris Hope, S (Tennessee)
Antwaan Randle El, WR (Pittsburgh)
Kimo von Oelhoffen, DT (NY Jets)
Tommy Maddox, QB (released)
Willie Williams, CB (released)

Team Overview

With 4 games left to go in the 2005 regular season, Pittsburgh was sitting at 7-5, and on the outside of the AFC playoff picture. The second season of Ben Roethlisberger, and the final season for Jerome Bettis, was looking bleak.

It was at that time when the Steelers got red-hot, outscoring their last 4 opponents 115-30 and earning the #6 seed in the AFC playoff picture. Pittsburgh then went on an unprecedented playoff run, going into Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver to win the AFC Championship. Despite being the 6th seed in the AFC playoffs, the Steelers were favored to win Super Bowl XL over the NFC’s #1-seed, the Seattle Seahawks. And we all know that the Steelers “got one for the thumb” in a game allegedly played in Jerome Bettis’ hometown.

The Steelers took a minimalist approach to free agency. Okay, Benedictine monks make more noise than Pittsburgh did this off-season. One would be hard-pressed to fault the Steelers for not making many changes to a team that had just won Super Bowl XL.

While the team knew that Jerome Bettis was going to retire, and they weren’t interested in retaining Anwtaan Randle El (at least not at the price Dan Snyder was willing to pay), the one move that the Steelers couldn’t have anticipated would turn out to be Ben Roethlisberger’s decision not to wear a helmet while riding his motorcycle. I’m aware that people are generally tired of reading about this, but whenever you’re previewing the Steelers upcoming season, you have to mention the “Roethlisberger head-butting a Chrysler” story, because it’s an integral part of the team’s immediate future.

Reports out of Pittsburgh are that Roethlisberger is fine, and he himself has declared himself fit for the team’s first pre-season game. That’s great news, because as dumb as he was for riding a motorcycle without a license or a helmet, you don’t want to see such a promising career cut short. However, do to the nature of the accident, and the responses he’s offered in interviews, that he’ll be carrying some adverse effects from that injury into the 2006 season. And that’s bad news for the Steelers offense.

The Steelers have a very solid offensive line, and Willie Parker emerged as a bonafide starter at the running back position. The team returns their top two pass catchers (Hines Ward & Heath Miller), but they’ve lost their goal-line specialist (Jerome Bettis) and most dynamic offensive weapon (Antwaan Randle El). Santonio Holmes (who has been arrested three times since being drafted) is a much better pure wide receiver than Randle El, but he lacks the versatility that Randle El gave the offense and return game.

Fortunately for the Steelers, the defense that ranked 4th in 2005 may actually be better in 2006. The team was prepared for the departure of von Oelhoffen, and replacing Chris Hope with Ryan Clark is a definite upgrade at the free safety position. There’s not a single change at the linebacker or cornerback position, and the team still has Troy Polamalu, who is one of the best strong safeties in the NFL.

With a great defense and coaching staff, little personnel turnover, and a shiny Lombardi Trophy, 2006 should be smooth sailing for the Steelers, right? Think again. This team isn’t without its share of question marks, particularly when it comes to Big Ben’s health and whether or not the offense can absorb the loss of Bettis and Randle El, and at this time, I’m not convinced this is a team that is capable of making back to the playoffs.

Three & Out

- Last year, when the Steelers needed to win out to make the playoffs, they finished with road games in Minnesota and Cleveland, and a home game against Detroit. Not exactly Murderer’s Row.

This year, Pittsburgh will start the year against 6 playoff-caliber teams, as the league’s flex schedule has Pittsburgh playing the AFC West and NFC South. In other words, the road to Miami is going to be a rough one.

- Should Omar Jacobs earn the #3 QB spot on the roster, and word is that’s not guaranteed despite being this year's 5th round draft choice, the Steelers will have three Middle American Conference (MAC) quarterbacks on their roster. I'm not geeky enough to do the research, but I have to assume that's the first time that's ever happened.

- Coach Bill Cowher’s family has relocated to Raleigh, NC, a move which is perceived as being a signal that Cowher is thinking of retiring in a year or two, or as a negotiating ploy to get his salary into the level of Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren ($8-9M per year).

Fantasy Island

Though his production tailed off at the end of the regular season, rookie tight end Heath Miller made such an impact in October, that he merits consideration for a starting role on your fantasy team.

With only one proven wide receiver on the Steelers’ roster (Hines Ward), Miller could break out with 60-70 receptions and 8 TDs in 2006.

Baltimore Ravens - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 6-10 (3rd in AFC North)

2005 Rankings
Offense:
24th (22nd pass; 21st run)
Defense: 5th (8th pass; 9th run)

Head Coach: Brian Billick (62-50, 5-2 playoffs, including winning Super Bowl XXXV in 2000); Entering 8th season as Baltimore Ravens coach.

2006 Draft Class
1.12 – DT, Haloti Ngata (Oregon)
2.56 – C, Chris Chester (Oklahoma)
3.87 – DB, David Pittman (Northwestern State)
4.111 – WR, Demetrius Williams (Oregon)
4.132 – RB, P.J. Daniels (Georgia Tech)
5.146 – DB, Dawan Landry (Georgia Tech)
5.166 – TE, Quinn Sypniewski (Colorado)
6.203 – P, Sam Koch (Nebraska)
6.208 – DB, Derrick Martin (Wyoming)
7.219 – LB, Ryan LaCasse (Syracuse)

Arrivals

Steve McNair, QB (Tennessee)
Mike Anderson, RB (Denver)
Trevor Pryce, DE (Denver)

Departures

Chester Taylor, RB (Minnesota)
Will Demps, S (NY Giants)
Darnell Dinkins, TE (Cleveland)
Maake Kemoeatu, DT (Carolina)
Tommy Polley, LB (New Orleans)
Anthony Weaver, DE (Houston)

Team Overview

Since the Ravens Super Bowl XXXV in 2000, the Ravens have been stuck in a .500 quagmire. Always dangerous, thanks to a top rate defense that annual cranks out Pro Bowlers and Defensive Player of the Year Award winners, the Ravens have never been able to get back that Super Bowl aura from 2000.

Beginning with the decision to not retain Trent Dilfer, the team's starting QB during their playoff run in 2000, Baltimore has seen a revolving door of mediocre quarterbacks incapable of running Brian Billick’s offense on an even adequate level. Elvis Grbac, Jeff Blake, Chris Redman, Anthony Wright, Kordell Stewart and Kyle Boller, have all failed, and in some cases, miserably.

This off-season, the Ravens turned to Steve McNair to be the QB to break the Dilfer Curse. McNair’s age, salary and health, combined with Vince Young, helped grease his exit from a rebuilding team and onto a team that, thanks to a stingy defense, appears to be a competent QB away from winning.

By adding McNair, the Ravens hope to recreate the McNair-to-Mason aerial connection that produced thousands of yards in Tennessee earlier this decade. They also hope that having a veteran under center will reduce the number of turnovers from the position. Last year’s starter, Kyle Boller, threw 12 interceptions in just 9 games.

Jamal Lewis hopes to return from a dreadful 2005, both on the field and off, and former Denver Bronco starter Mike Anderson will join Lewis in the backfield to give the Ravens a powerful 1-2 punch. Mason will no doubt be the go-to guy for McNair, but for once, the Ravens have several legitimate weapons to throw to. Last year’s #1 pick Mark Clayton hauled in 44 catches a year ago, red-zone threat Clarence Moore (6-6 leaper, who missed most of last season), rookie Demetrius Williams and tight end Todd Heap combine to give the Ravens their best corps of pass catchers the Brian Billick era has seen.

The strength of the Ravens, as always, is the defense. Led by two Defensive Player of the Year Award winners, linebacker Ray Lewis and strong safety Ed Reed, this is a unit that is a lead-pipe lock to finish in the Top 10 in the NFL. New additions, Haloti Ngata and Trevor Pryce, will be expected to continue the excellence this unit is known for.

It only took 6 team previews for me to make my boldest prediction yet for the 2006 season: If Steve McNair remains healthy, the Ravens will make the post-season, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they won the division in the process. With his last three seasons in Tennessee marred by various injuries, that’s a mighty big “if”.

Three & Out

- The NFL schedule makers didn’t give the Ravens much to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. After hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers in a key divisional game on November 26th, the Ravens will have to go on the road just 4 days later to play another important divisional game in Cincinnati on November 30th.

- If the Ravens hope to generate more of a pass rush this year, they’ll need last year’s 2nd round pick, LB Dan Cody, to return from a knee injury on the opening day of training camp that cost him his rookie campaign. Cody is a hybrid defender, who could see some time rushing the passer opposite fellow DE/LB Terrell Suggs.

- Bart Scott parlayed his first chance to start in the NFL, a productive 10-game stretch in the second half of 2005, into a lucrative 3-year contract that included a $6.5M signing bonus.

Fantasy Island

Perhaps no player has seen his fantasy stock plummet like Jamal Lewis has in the last 2 seasons. The proof is in the numbers:

Year – Yards - TD
2003 – 2066 – 14
2004 – 1006 – 7
2005 - 906 – 3

Those numbers are downright frightening to anyone thinking about using a 2nd or 3rd round pick on Lewis, simply because he’s a starting running back. Lewis troubles the past two years can be attributed to nagging injuries, woeful play by the Ravens quarterbacks and oh yeah, reporting to camp last year out of shape following a 30-day stint in the slammer.

The most alarming number on Lewis isn’t the two yards per carry dropoff from 2003 to 2005, but that he’ll be just 27 years old when the season starts. It seems like he’s been in the league forever, but the truth is he’s less than 3 months older than KC running back Larry Johnson.

Lewis still has some value. A healthy Jamal Lewis, with an NFL-quality QB, could generate 1,400 yards and 10 TDs. Still, it might be a good idea to take a flyer on Mike Anderson, just in case.


Monday, August 07, 2006

Cleveland Browns - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 6-10 (4th in AFC North)

2005 Rankings
Offense:
26th (23rd pass; 25th run)
Defense: 16th (4th pass; 30th run)

Head Coach: Romeo Crennel (6-10); Entering 2nd season as Cleveland Browns head coach.

2006 Draft Class

1.13 – DE/LB, Kamerion Wimbley (Florida State)
2.34 – LB, D’Qwell Jackson (Maryland)
3.78 – WR, Travis Wilson (Oklahoma)
4.110 – LB, Leon Williams (Miami)
4.112 – OG, Isaac Sowells (Indiana)
5.145 – RB, Jerome Harrison (Washington State)
5.152 – DB, Demario Minter (Georgia)
6.180 – FB, Lawrence Vickers (Colorado)
6.181 – DT, Babatunde Oshinowo (Stanford)
7.222 – DB, Justin Hamilton (Virginia Tech)

Arrivals
LeCharles Bentley, C (New Orleans)
Bob Hallen, C (San Diego)
Joe Jurevicius, WR (Seattle)
Willie McGinest, LB (New England)
Kevin Shaffer, OT (Atlanta)
Ted Washington, DT (Oakland)
Dave Zastudil, P (Baltimore)

Departures
Antonio Bryant, WR (San Francisco)
Jason Fisk, DT (St. Louis)

Kenard Lang, DE (Denver)
Ray Mickens, CB (NY Jets)
Aaron Shea, TE (San Diego)
LJ Shelton, OT (Miami)
Ben Taylor, LB (Green Bay)

Team Overview

Several years spent coordinating the New England Patriots defense kept Romeo Crennel from a head coaching gig in the NFL. That all changed in 2005, when the Cleveland Browns exercised sound judgment by waiting until after Crennel and the Patriots won Super Bowl XXXIX before making a decision on their head coach vacancy. Crennel is the perfect choice to turn around the fortunes in a football-crazed city, and he’ll have the Dawg Pound barking loudly again real soon.

Crennel and Phil Savage quickly went to work to overhaul the roster. Out was Jeff Garcia, who was involved in a highly publicized court case in which his girlfriend (Seriously, it’s true), a Playboy playmate (Why are you laughing?) punched out another girl at a nightclub. In his place, Crennel and Savage tabbed the squeaky clean Trent Dilfer to mentor rookie QB Charlie Frye. Naturally, Dilfer was involved in some fisticuffs while out at a bar before training camp. More proof that the Browns were jinxed came in the loss of 2nd year tight end Kellen Winslow, the team’s 1st round pick in 2004, who blew out his knee while crashing his motorcycle in the spring. To date Winslow, expected to be the next great tight end in the NFL, has played in just 2 games.

Defensively, Crennel installed the 3-4 defense, jettisoning most of the starting front seven on defense. Did it work? Well, the Browns did improve from dead last against the run in 2004, to 30th in 2005. Baby steps, folks.

Heading into 2006, the Browns parted ways with Dilfer (traded to San Francisco), and Charlie Frye is the team’s starting QB. Frye started the team’s final 5 games, and while Canton might not be adding his number to the speed dial, he did play pretty well for a rookie.

What will help Frye in his sophomore season will be the return of last year’s 1st round pick, Braylon Edwards, whose rookie season was cut short by a knee injury (there’s that jinx again). The team even expects Sergeant Winslow to be the starting tight end this year. Cleveland added steady veteran WR Joe Jurevicius, giving Frye a tall, sure-handed safety valve.

Frye was sacked an eye-opening 21 times in under 200 attempts, which is why the Browns went out and spent big money on LT Kevin Shaffer from Atlanta, and Pro Bowl C LeCharles Bentley from New Orleans. Naturally, Bentley suffered a season-ending knee injury on Day 1 of training camp this year, so veteran C Bob Hallen (a prophetic free agent signing) will start at center.

In an attempt to improve the leadership on defense, Crennel grabbed former Patriots Ted Washington and Willie McGinest in free agency. Obviously, Crennel would like the two veterans to help the progress of young defenders like Chaun Thompson, Andra Davis and first year players Oshinowo and Kamerion Wimbley.

It’s hard to say whether or not the off-season maneuvers will translate into playoff contention. The Browns play in the same division as the Steelers (defending SB champs) and Bengals (who won the division last year), and half of their games will be against the AFC West and the very tough NFC South. Even if they show improvement, wins still may be very hard to come by.

Three & Out

- Most NFL observers would be hard-pressed to grade the Browns off-season anywhere lower than an “A”, even if it was somewhat fortuitous that among the list of NFL free agents in positions the Browns had needs at, were two players with Cleveland-area roots. LeCharles Bentley, who unfortunately is lost for the season, signed with Cleveland shortly after a report surfaced that he was destined to sign with Philadelphia. Seattle really wanted to retain Joe Jurevicius, but he took less money to play closer to where he grew up.

- The Browns have some young, talented pass-catchers (Edwards, Winslow) who can learn from Jurevicius’ example. The 2004 Seahawks dropped a ton of passes, but once Jurevicius came on-board, all of that disappeared in training camp, when Jurevicius was catching everything in sight. Things like that have a way of being contagious, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Cleveland’s receivers become a bit more sure-handed.

- Keeping with the mentoring theme, is there anyone Cleveland fans would rather see mentor Kamerion Wimbley than Willie McGinest? New England wanted McGinest back (though at a reduced rate), and in order to reunite with Crennel, he may have bidded adieu to his playoff career.

Fantasy Island

Before his season came to a sudden halt, Braylon Edwards was beginning to prove that he was worth of the 3rd overall selection in the 2004 draft. Coming out of college, his leaping ability and strong hands made him a lethal red zone weapon. He has good speed, and is capable of taking a slant pass to the house.

You will want to pay attention to the medical reports before doing so, but Edwards would be a good value pick as a 3rd or 4th WR on your roster.

Friday, August 04, 2006

New England Patriots - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 10-6 (1st in AFC East); Lost 27-13 to Denver in AFC Divisional Playoffs.

2005 Rankings
Offense:
7th (2nd pass; 24th run)
Defense:
26th (31st pass; 8th run)

Head Coach: Bill Belichick (99-77, 11-2 playoffs overall; 63-33, 10-1 playoffs w/New England ); Entering 7th season as the head coach of the New England Patriots; Has won 3 Super Bowls as head coach.

2006 Draft Class

1.21 – RB, Laurence Maroney (Minnesota)
2.36 – WR, Chad Jackson (Florida)
3.86 – TE, David Thomas (Texas)
4.106 – TE/FB, Garrett Mills (Tulsa)
4.118 – K, Stephen Gostowski (Memphis)
5.136 – OG, Ryan O’Callaghan (Cal)
6.191 – DE, Jeremy Mincey (Florida)
6.205 – OG, Dan Stevenson (Notre Dame)
6.206 – DT, Le Kevin Smith (Nebraska)
7.229 – DB, Willie Andrews (Baylor)

Arrivals
Reche Caldwell, WR (San Diego)
Tebucky Jones, DB (Miami)
Eric Warfield, CB (Kansas City)
Mel Mitchell, S (New Orleans)
Martin Grammatica, K (The Flintstones)

Departures
Tom Ashworth, OL (Seattle)
Matt Chatham, LB (NY Jets)
Andre Davis, WR (Buffalo)
Tim Dwight, WR (NY Jets)
Christian Fauria, TE (Washington)
David Givens, WR (Tennessee)
Willie McGinest, LB (Cleveland)
Tyrone Poole, CB (Oakland)
Adam Vinateiri, K (Indianapolis)

Team Overview

By winning 3 of the last 5 Super Bowl titles, the New England Patriots have established themselves as the model franchise, not only in the NFL, but in all of professional sports.

Even in a season where the Patriots managed to lose 6 games in the regular season, two more than they had lost in the previous 2 seasons combined, the Patriots were still the most feared team in the AFC when the playoffs started, especially after thoroughly dominating the Jacksonville Jaguars at home. Once the Patriots hit the road in January, their season came to an abrupt end, losing 27-13 in Denver.

With ample room under the salary cap, and very few holes to fill or key free agents to re-sign, the Patriots were capable of making some noise when the free agent signing period started. For awhile, the only sound heard out of Foxborough was silence. David Givens, who had caught TD passes in the last 7 playoff games the Patriots played in, was allowed to leave for Tennessee. Willie McGinest was released for cap purposes, and quickly joined Romeo Crennel in Cleveland. And in what could perhaps be the most devastating personnel loss of the off-season, future Hall-of-Fame kicker Adam Vinateiri, the most clutch kicker in NFL history, signed with conference-rival Indianapolis.

While the Patriots failed to launch in free agency, Scott Pioli & Co. did a tremendous job in the draft. 1st round pick Laurence Maroney gives the Patriots a big, workhorse-type of a back to pair with veteran Corey Dillon, who is beginning to slow down after years of wear and tear in Cincinnati. 2nd round pick, WR Chad Jackson, might be the best WR in the Class of ’06. He provides Tom Brady with a big, athletic target, and should be a good pro, as long as he doesn’t fall victim to the “Gator Curse”. No rookie in the NFL has bigger shoes to fill than Stephen Gostowski, who has the inside track to be the replacement for Adam Vinateiri.

For much of 2005, the Patriots were playing short-handed. Missing time were starting LT Matt Light, C Dan Koppen, and of course Corey “King of the 206” Dillon, Kevin Faulk and Patrick Pass. At one point, Heath Evans was signed in the middle of the week, and was starting at tailback on Sunday. The injuries to the running backs were the main reason the Patriots ranked 2nd in the NFL in passing yards. Those guys are back, and presumably healthy, which should give the offense some balance.

Of course the defense had to overcome injuries, as well. Richard Seymour, perhaps the best defensive lineman in the league, missed several games. And even non-football fans are aware of the plight of Tedy Bruschi, the co-Comeback Player of the Year who returned in Week 7 from an off-season stroke that jeopardized his career. Add in the season-ending injury to Rodney Harrison, and the Patriots were without the unquestioned leaders at every level of their defense. It’s no wonder that the Patriots ranked so low defensively, after consecutive seasons ranked in the Top 10.

Despite the changes to the coaching staff the last two years, the exodus of key players (McGinest, Vinateiri), New England still enters the 2006 season as the favorites to win the AFC East. And if they do win the division, and are hosting playoff games, the odds are good that the Patriots will represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLI.

Three & Out

- When you combine the return of Matt Light and Dan Koppen from injury, the drafting of Laurence Maroney to pair with Corey Dillon, and the indifference the front office showed towards the team free agent WRs, it’s obvious that the Patriots are looking to become a ground-based offense in 2006. Tom Brady is coming off a sports hernia injury, and running the ball more in the regular season may give his oft-injured shoulder a break.

- According to published reports in the Boston newspapers, Monty Biesel will be getting another crack at the starting inside linebacker position. This move allows Mike Vrabel to play outside, his more natural position. Biesel, along with fellow newcomer Chad Brown, struggled mightily a year ago. Playing alongside Tedy Bruschi in training camp should help Biesel, who has put on 15 pounds of muscle in the off-season.

- Despite the posturing, there’s virtually no chance that Deion Branch won’t start in Week 1. While he is deserving of a new contract, Branch cannot afford the $14,000 per day in fines he’d accrue by sitting out. And the Patriots, who currently have Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown as the starters, need Branch much more than they may currently realize.

Fantasy Island

In every fantasy football draft, there’s always one guy who takes Tony Gonzalez (or Antonio Gates, Jeremy Shockey, etc…) in the 2nd round, and the rest of the league busts his chops for the rest of the draft. Let someone else be that guy this year, and in the middle rounds, use a pick on Ben Watson.

His 2005 numbers weren’t gaudy, and New England is the type of team that’s been more likely to throw a play-action pass to a linebacker than they are to a tight end, but I’m here to tell you that 2006 will be Ben Watson’s coming out party.

He’s a tremendous athlete, has soft hands and runs well after the catch. Also, he’s developing a rapport with Tom Brady, and in a league that gets points for receptions, he could wind up being just as valuable as Antonio Gates.



Thursday, August 03, 2006

Miami Dolphins - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 9-7 (2nd in AFC East)

2005 Rankings
Offense:
14th (16th pass; 12th run)
Defense: 18th (20th pass; 17th run)

Head Coach: Nick Saban (9-7); Entering 2nd season as NFL head coach.

2006 Draft Class

1.16 – DB, Jason Allen, Tennessee
3.82 – WR, Derek Hagan, Arizona State
4.114 – OT, Joe Toledo, Washington
7.212 – DT, Fred Evans, Texas State
7.226 – DT, Rodrique Wright, Texas
7.233 – WR, Devin Aromashodu, Auburn

Arrivals

Daunte Culpepper, QB (Minnesota)
Will Allen, CB (NY Giants)
L.J. Shelton, OT (Cleveland)
Renaldo Hill, DB (Oakland)
Andre Goodman, CB (Detroit)
Sedrick Hodge, LB (New Orleans)
Mike Mularkey, offensive coordinator (Buffalo)
Dom Capers, defensive coordinator (Houston)

Departures

David Boston, WR (Tampa Bay)
Gus Frerotte, QB (St. Louis)
Sam Madison, CB (NY Giants)
Tebucky Jones, S (New England)
Junior Seau, LB (released)
Ricky Williams, RB (One-year suspension)
Scott Linehan, Offensive Coordinator (St. Louis)

Team Overview

After the disaster that was the 2004 season, the Miami Dolphins, under new head coach Nick Saban, did a complete 180 in 2005. Though it didn’t start well (3-7), the Dolphins closed out the regular season as one of the league’s hottest teams.

When an off-season sees the departure of a team’s starting quarterback, and it’s offensive coordinator, you’d normally expect the team to take a big step back. That’s not the case in Miami, as the coaching staff welcomes Mike Mularkey (former offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh, and most recently the head coach in Buffalo) and traded for 3-time Pro Bowl QB Daunte Culpepper, who wore out his welcome in Minnesota. Culpepper had a nightmarish season in Minnesota last year, which saw him suffer the first serious injury in his playing career, and had him in the middle of one of the infamous “Love Boat” scandal. There are still questions about whether or not his knee is 100%, but the team guarded against that by acquiring former Detroit Lions QB Joey Harrington.

If Culpepper is healthy, the deep passing game in Miami should be lethal. Both of Miami’s starting wideouts, Chris Chambers and Marty Booker, are capable of getting deep and making the big play. Rookie Derek Hagan will be expected to contribute immediately, and Randy McMichael is one of the better tight ends in the AFC.

Ronnie Brown, the team’s 1st round pick ’05, impressed in his split duty with Ricky Williams. With “The Stoned One” serving a 1-year suspension from the league, Brown will be the feature back this year. He put up solid numbers running the ball, but his 32 receptions showed that he can be a complete back in the NFL.

The biggest addition to the defense might be Dom Capers, the new defensive coordinator. Now, I’ve always thought that Capers was one of the worst head coaches in NFL history (The 48-80 career record supports that claim), but Capers is a highly respected defensive coordinator, and he’ll be expected to improve a defense who underperformed in 2005.

One issue with the defense is age. Second-year linebacker Channing Crowder is the youngest starter among the front 7, with the other 6 players having a full 8 years on him. So even after watching thirtysomethings Sam Madison and Junior Seau depart, the Dolphins are still a very old team on defense. The youth movement has started, and the entire secondary has been rebuilt in the last two years. Gone are the days of Patrick Surtain, Sam Madison and Sammy Knight, and in comes Travis Daniels, Will Allen and 1st round pick Jason Allen. The only holdover from 2005 is Travares Tillman, who’ll be battling the newly signed Renaldo Hill (Oakland) for a starting role at strong safety.

The Dolphins enter 2006 season with the longest regular season winning streak (6 games). Just how far the Dolphins go will depend greatly on the status of Daunte Culpepper. If he can play all 16 games, this team has a very good shot at winning 10 games and being in the mix for the playoffs. Winning the division, which some media members have predicted, seems far-fetched at this point.

Three & Out

- The Dolphins turnaround in 2005 can be attributed to a number of factors. Woefully overlooked was the addition of Hudson Houck, the team’s offensive line coach. Houck took a unit that was dreadful in 2004, to respectable in 2005. Sacks were cut in half, and the team averaged over 4 yards per carry. With the exception of new left tackle (L.J. Shelton), the Dolphins return the same group from a year ago. Solid coaching and continuity are two of the most important ingredients of a good offensive line, and Miami has both.

- Some media members are speculating about what the ramifications will be from the pending divorce of Pro Bowl defensive end Jason Taylor, and his wife, who is the sister of Pro Bowl middle linebacker Zack Thomas. I can’t imagine that there will be a negative side effect.

For starters, both players are professionals who excel at their jobs. They won’t let an outside distraction disrupt the team. Also, divorce proceedings cannot possibly create as many awkward moments as one teammate dating the sister of a teammate. If they were able to play at a Pro Bowl level through that, you almost have to think that they’ll get through this.

- Even though the Dolphins starters are old, Miami does have some young guys up front that should be expected to contribute more in 2006. The massive Manuel Wright, a supplemental draft choice from USC, played well in the 3 games he was active for last year. Matt Roth, the 2005 2nd round draft choice out of Iowa, has the speed off the edge to rush the passer, and should play more this year. Though he’ll sit the entire season due to injury, DT Rodrique Wright (7th round pick – Texas) was a highly touted defensive line prospect before being injured.

Fantasy Island

The secret is out on one of the league’s hidden fantasy gems. Thanks to a 15-catch, 238-yard performance against Buffalo in December, everyone now knows the name Chris Chambers. Between the 11 touchdown receptions in 2005, and the addition of an actual NFL-caliber QB, Chambers will be one of the first wide receivers selected in your draft.

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

New York Jets - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 4-12 (4th in AFC East)
2005 Rankings
Offense: 31st (28th pass; 31st run)
Defense: 12th (2nd pass; 29th run)

Head Coach: Eric Mangini (1st season as NFL head coach)

2006 Draft Class
1.4 – LT, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Virginia
1.29 – C, Nick Mangold, Ohio State
2.49 – QB, Kellen Clemens, Oregon
3.76 – LB, Anthony Schlegel, Ohio State
3.97 – DB, Eric Smith, Michigan State
4.103 – WR, Brad Smith, Missouri
4.117 – RB, Leon Washington, Florida State
5.150 – TE, Jason Pociask, Wisconsin
6.189 – DB, Drew Coleman, Texas Christian

7.220 – DT, Titus Adams, Nebraska

Arrivals
Eric Mangini, Head Coach
Trey Teague, C (Buffalo)
Monsanto Pope, DT (Denver)
Andre Dyson, CB (Seattle)
Kim von Oelhoffen, DE (Pittsburgh)
Anthony Clement, OT (San Francisco)

Departures
Herm Edwards, Head Coach
John Abraham, DE (Atlanta)
Jonathan Goodwin, OT (New Orleans)
Ty Law, CB (Kansas City)
Kevin Mawae, C (Tennessee)
Jay Fiedler, QB (Tampa Bay)
Jason Fabini, OT (Dallas)

Team Overview

During the 2004 playoffs, the Jets were mere feet away from advancing to the AFC Championship game. From an organizational standpoint, the only thing that ended their 2004 season was the weak kicking leg of Doug Brien. What Herm Edwards & Co. didn’t realize was that they didn’t lose to Pittsburgh because of Doug Brien, they lost because Edwards called that final series too conservatively, which made that field goal attempt in Heinz Field much more difficult than it needed to be.

So they drafted Mike Nugent (Ohio State) in the 2nd round, and gambled that Chad Pennington could return from shoulder surgery after only 6 months.

They lost that gamble, as Pennington was lost in Week 3, and in the same game, they lost his backup, Jay Fiedler. This left them no choice but to coax Vinny Testaverde away from the Del Boca Vista co-ed shuffleboard team for a few games. If Curtis Martin posting career lows in games, yards and touchdowns isn't enough of an indicator that the offense was awful, all you need to know is Brooks Bollinger was the teams starting quarterback at one point.

The situation was equally bleak on the defensive side of the ball as Larry Johnson and the KC Chiefs rolled over the Jets in Week 1, much like how Sherman rolled through Georgia, and the word was out: The Jets can’t stop the run. The J-E-T-S had ranked 5th against the run in 2004 all the way down to 29th in ’05. That’s an enormous drop, and it’s one factor in how this team went from 10-6 and on the brink of the AFC Championship game one year, to 4-12 and picking in the lottery the next.

Once Herm Edwards was on his way to Kansas City, the Jets shocked just about everybody by hiring the relatively unknown Eric Mangini as head coach. Mangini’s name had raised eyebrows a year earlier when Bill Belichick named him as Romeo Crennel’s successor as the Patriots defensive coordinator, and his ascent to the head coach level in the Big Apple was unexpected.

Mangini (the rookie head coach) and Mike Tannenbaum (the rookie GM) quickly went to work on the roster, and dealt oft-disgruntled DE John Abraham to the Falcons for a 1st round pick. After allowing veteran offensive linemen Kevin Mawae and Jason Fabini to leave town, the Jets used their two first round picks on their replacements, selecting LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson with the 4th pick, and grabbing Ohio State center Nick Mangold with the 29th pick. Neither were “sexy” choices, but both Mangini and Tannenbaum realize that the best way to rebuild up front is through the draft.

To replace the departed Abraham, they brought in former Steelers DE Kimo von Oelhoffen, and former Bronco Monsanto Pope. Both veterans figure to play a pivotal role in the Jets transition to a 3-4 alignment. Another change on defense was the departure of Pro Bowl CB Ty Law, whose salary was far too high for a team looking to rebuild. Replacing him will be second-year corner Justin Miller, who made strides in year 1. The Jets did bring in veterans Andre Dyson and Ray Mickens to add depth at the CB position, should Barrett and Miller fail. Even though the names don’t leap off the page, Mangini coached the defensive backs in New England for 5 years, 3 of which culminated in World Championships. If he can’t get solid performances out of this group, nobody can.

The star of the defense is third-year middle linebacker Johnathan Vilma, who recorded a team-high 169 tackles in 2005. His sack and interceptions may have decreased, but there’s little doubt that Vilma is a Pro Bowl-caliber linebacker.

Offensively, the word is Chad Pennington could be the Week 1 starter. With rookies at the two key spots on the offensive line, we’ll see how long that lasts, if it even happens at all. Curtis Martin returns as the starting RB, and the Jets actually have decent depth behind him. Cedric Houston, last year’s 3rd round draft pick, should improve in year 2, and the team drafted former Seminole Leon Washington this year. If the Jets can manage to keep Pennington or Kellen Clemens upright, the primary target will once again be Laveranues Coles, whose production was seriously hampered by the revolving door at the QB position a year ago. Justin McCareins starts opposite Coles, and is the team’s designated deep threat, but one player to keep an eye on is Jerricho Cotchery, who has no real competition for the #3 WR spot. Tight end duties will once again be shared by Doug Jolley and Chris Baker.

The rebuilding process is underway, and the Jets are going to lose a lot of games. Mangini and Tannenbaum made the right moves on draft day, and perhaps next year, they’ll address the front seven on the defensive side of the ball.

Three & Out

- How long can Pennington last? He’s attempting to return to the field after tearing his right rotator cuff not once, but twice. His velocity and accuracy were noticeably down after the first procedure, and you’d have to suspect that it will decrease even further after the second operation. In the winds of the Meadowlands, this could spell trouble. The team used a 2nd round pick on Kellen Clemens from Oregon, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Clemens finish the season as the starting QB for the New York Jets.

- Why shift to a 3-4, if you don’t have the personnel to do so? Vilma is emerging as an elite middle linebacker, and now in his 3rd year, he’ll have some “help” from guys like Eric Barton, Victor Hobson, Brad Kassell and converted DE Bryan Thomas. In the 34 defense, the success of the linebackers is contingent on the success of the down linemen. Can they keep blockers away from Vilma and allow him to chase down the ball carrier? I doubt it.

- Patience. Not exactly a virtue that Jets fans are known for, but they’ll need an abundance of it over the next few seasons. The team needs to clean up the mess left behind by Herm Edwards, and the front office has this ship pointed in the right direction. With an ever increasing salary cap and a good draft class or two, the Jets could be back among the contenders in the AFC very soon.

Fantasy Island

You’d be wise to avoid drafting any New York Jet players early this year. Curtis Martin did lead the NFL in rushing in 2004, but he isn’t getting any younger and is coming off an injury-plagued season. That means you should think about grabbing taking Cedric Houston at some point in your draft.

Houston stepped in as the starter when Martin went down, and showed that he had the ability to start at this level. He’s not good, not great, receiver out of the backfield, and is worth having on your roster just in case Martin’s age has finally caught up to him.

Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Buffalo Bills - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 5-11 (3rd in AFC East)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 28th (29th passing; 20th rushing)
Defense: 29th (19th passing; 31st rushing)

Head Coach: Dick Jauron - (1st season in Buffalo) 36-49, 0-1 in playoffs during 4+ years in Chicago and Detroit.

2006 Draft Class

1.8 – S, Donte Whitner, Ohio State
1.26 – DT, John McCargo, NC State
3.70 – CB, Ashton Youboty, Ohio State
4.105 – S, Ko Simpson, South Carolina
5.134 – DT, Kyle Williams, LSU
5.143 – OT, Brad Butler, Virginia
6.178 – LB, Keith Ellison, Oregon State
7.216 – OT, Terrance Pennington, New Mexico
7.248 – OG, Aaron Merz, Cal

Arrivals
Dick Jauron, Head Coach
Marv Levy, President/GM
Andre Davis, WR (New England)
Melvin Fowler, C (Minnesota)
Craig Nall, QB (Green Bay)
Peerless Price, WR (Atlanta)
Tutan Reyes, G (Carolina)
Larry Triplett, DT (Indianapolis

Departures
Mike Mularkey, Head Coach
Tom Donohoe, GM
Sam Adams, DT (Cincinnati)
Lawyer Milloy, S (Atlanta)
Trey Teague, C (NY Jets)
Mike Williams, OT (Jacksonville)


Team Overview

After the 2003 season ended, and the Bills had 17 wins and no playoff appearances in 3 seasons, the Buffalo Bills had no choice but to end the Gregg Williams Era. Buffalo turned to Mike Mularkey, the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator, to get them back into the AFC playoffs. The Bills already had a good defense, and Mularkey was expected to fix the offense.

Mularkey's first season didn’t start out great, as the team limped out to a 1-5 start. The Bills did get hot in the second half, winning 6 straight games and even flirted with a playoff spot. They ultimately fell short, but finished with a 9-7 record and were a team projected to contend in the AFC in 2005. There wasn’t this much optimism in western New York since Flutie Mania ran wild back in ’98.

2005 wasn’t so much a disaster, as it was a calamity. Mularkey gambled that JP Losman would be ready to lead this team to the next level, so Drew Bledsoe was dealt to the Dallas Cowboys. Losman wasn’t close to being ready, eventually being replaced by journeyman Kelly Holcomb. The offense was stagnant, the injuries began to pile up, and when all was said and done, the Bills dropped 21 spots in total offense. Mularkey was fired, as was Tom Donohoe, the team’s president and general manager.

Enter Dick Jauron, a well-respected defensive coordinator, as the head coach. To fill the role of president/general manager, Ralph Wilson turned to the past and hired Hall-of-Fame head coach Marv Levy, who turns 78 on Thursday. You read that correctly. The guy leading the Bills’ rebuilding effort…is nearly 80 years old.

Levy used free agency to plug some holes on offense. Willis McGahee did put up over 1,200 yards, but after posting 13 TDs in 2004, McGahee managed to find the end zone only 5 times last year. Clearly, the offensive line wasn’t opening up as many holes as they did a year earlier. The offensive line has been rebuilt around center Melvin Fowler and former Panthers guard Tutan Reyes. Former Bills WR Peerless Price was added, and is expected to start opposite Lee Evans. Josh Reed returns as the #3 WR, with speedster Roscoe Parrish expected to play a bigger role in his sophomore season.

The Bills added one notable defensive player in free agency (DT Larry Tripplett), but for the most part, the additions to the defense came via the draft. The first four choices the Bills made in April were used on defensive players, three of which were used to add players to the secondary. All 4 players (Whitner, McCargo, Youboty and Simpson) all figure to see substantial playing time this year. One of the bigger additions to the defense will be the return of MLB Takeo Spikes, who was lost to an injury early in the 2005 season, after turning in consecutive Pro Bowl appearances in his first two seasons in Buffalo.

Three & Out

1. They’re a team that is clearly in rebuilding mode. They don’t expect to win 9-10 games and challenge for a playoff spot, and that’s a good thing since they’ll be lucky to repeat the 5-11 record of a year ago.

2. This is the final year for JP Losman to show whether or not he’s going to be an NFL quarterback. If Losman can’t unseat Kelly Holcomb, and is once again carrying a clipboard, then Buffalo needs to cut bait with the former Tulane star. Then they need to lose as many games as possible to improve their odds of winning the Brady Quinn Sweepstakes.

3. Even though I’m pretty sure Ralph Wilson hired Marv Levy after one too many viewings of “Cocoon”, the truth is I liked the players that Levy ultimately drafted. However, he could’ve done a better job maneuvering down to get Whitner, and moving up to get McCargo wasn’t at all necessary.

Fantasy Island

RB Willis McGahee, who posted 13 TDs in 2004 (10 in the final 6 weeks), had fantasy owners salivating on draft day. And for 6 weeks, McGahee delivered. When the Bills offensive line was healthy, McGahee was averaging 100 yards per game, and scored 4 TDs in Weeks 1-6. From that point on, however, McGahee only posted one 100-yard game (in a meaningless Week 17 game) and scored just 1 touchdown.

So the question is: Which Willis McGahee shows up in 2006?

I expect to see more of the Week 7-17 production out of Willis McGahee, though to be fair it’s simply not his fault. With the uncertainty at the quarterback position, and a shaky offensive line, the focus of opposing defense will fall squarely on McGahee, the team’s only legitimate offensive weapon.

38 Days to Go

It's August 1st. Much of the nation is in the midst of a heat wave. In fact, it was 80 degrees when I woke up at 6 o'clock in the morning and over the next 48 hours the heat index will make the temperature feel like its 110 degrees outside here in the Boston area.

Want to really know whether or not relief from the heat is near? We're only 38 days from the start of the NFL season. Heck, in just FIVE (5) days, the pre-season officially kicks off with the annual Hall-of-Fame game. Football season, and the cooler weather that comes with it, will be here very shortly.

So over the next 32 days, I'll be previewing one lucky NFL team per day. On the 33rd day, I'll have my 2006 NFL Preview, complete with predictions on everything from standings, awards, coaching changes and who will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl XLI in Miami.

Check back later on today for today's previewed team.

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