San Francisco 49ers - 2006 NFL Preview

2005 Record: 4-12 (4th in NFC West)

2005 Rankings
Offense: 32nd (32nd pass; 17th run)
Defense: 32nd (32nd pass; 18th run)

Head Coach: Mike Nolan (4-12); Entering 2nd season as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers.    

2006 Draft Class

1.6 – TE, Vernon Davis (Maryland)
1.22 – DE, Manny Lawson (NC State)
3.84 – WR, Brandon Williams (Wisconsin)
4.100 – WR, Michael Robinson (Penn State)
5.140 – DE, Parys Henderson (Tennessee)
6.175 – WR, Delanie Walker (Central Missouri State)
6.192 – DB, Marcus Hudson (NC State)
6.197 – DE, Melvin Oliver (LSU)
7.254 – DB, Vickiel Vaughn (Arkansas)

Arrivals
Trent Dilfer, QB (Cleveland)
Larry Allen, G (Dallas)
Antonio Bryant, WR (Cleveland)
Walt Harris, CB (Washington)
Chad Williams, S (Baltimore)
Taylor Jacobs, WR (Washington)

Departures

Julian Peterson, LB (Seattle)
Andre Carter, DE (Washington)
Brandon Lloyd, WR (Washington)
Fred Beasley, FB (Miami)
Anthony Clement, OT (NY Jets)
Chris Cooper, DT (Seattle)
Johnnie Morton, WR (released)
Ahmed Plummer, CB

Team Overview

From 1983 to 1998, the San Francisco 49ers were the most dominant franchise in the NFL. Every new season brought with it the expectation that the teams’ final game would be played on the game’s biggest stage. Those days are well in the past, as the 49ers have endured losing campaigns in 5 of the last 7 seasons.

Losing in 2005 was to be expected. Mike Nolan came in to replace the ineffective Dennis Erickson, and the team was installing a new defense and offense with the same personnel, which led to them being more aptly named the San Francisco 32nds. Nolan’s crew finished dead last in the NFL in both offense and defense, but despite those lowly rankings, the 49ers did double their win total from 2004.

In the off-season, San Francisco continued the roster overhaul. For a rebuilding team, Julian Peterson’s price tag was too great, and he went north to division rival Seattle. The defense also lost Andre Carter to the Washington Redskins. Also going to Washington was the team’s most talented, and most erratic, wide receiver, Brandon Lloyd.

The offense has been turned over to the 1st pick of the 2005 draft, QB Alex Smith. Behind him, the 49ers smartly brought in a competent backup, local boy Trent Dilfer. The former Fresno State star did wonders for Matt Hasselbeck’s career in Seattle, and he’s expected to be ready to play if needed, but mostly to show Smith what it takes to be an NFL quarterback. Kevan Barlow and Frank Gore return as the top 2 running backs. Gore is the more effective runner, but Barlow is expected to start. The disparity in per carry average (Barlow’s 3.3 to Gore’s 4.8) displays the difference in each runner’s styles. Barlow needs holes to run through, while Gore just runs over people. The offensive line received a boost with the addition of Larry Allen, though his best days are well behind him. Jonas Jennings and Kwame Harris are above average tackles, and Justin Smiley is an emerging talent at right guard. The major question mark for the 49ers is at center, with Jeremy Newberry expected to miss the entire 2006 season.

The receiving crew is much different than last year’s. Newly acquired WR Antonio Bryant and Arnaz Battle will be the starters, with Rasheed Marshall, Bryan Gilmore and Brandon Williams providing depth. The 49ers will welcome back tight end Eric Johnson to the mix, but the most intriguing receiving option may be Vernon Davis. A freakish athlete, whose combination of size and speed make him nearly impossible to cover. He’s expected to make an immediate and significant impact in his rookie season.

Coach Nolan came to the Bay Area from Baltimore, and last year began the transformation from a 4-3 to a 3-4 alignment. While the trio of the ageless Bryant Young along with Anthony Adams and Marques Douglas are solid, they don’t have much depth beyond them. The key to the 3-4 defense is the linebackers, and San Francisco has 2 solid and smart inside ‘backers (Derek Smith and Jeff Ulbrich). On the outside, they’ll start Brandon Moore and the latter of the team’s two 1st round picks, Manny Lawson, who starred alongside Houston’s Mario Williams at North Carolina State. As with the front line, this group also lacks depth.

The secondary is an issue of concern for San Francisco, especially in a division with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram and Darrell Jackson. Shawntae Spencer has reportedly had a great camp, and they’ve got some veteran cornerbacks (Walt Harris, Sammy Davis), but overall, this is a talented group. Tony Parrish is the leader of the group, but the rest of the safeties are a collection of street and undrafted free agents.

The last 7 seasons have been nothing short of a nightmare for 49ers fans. Being 2-12 in December is not something they’d like to be accustomed to, and while the 49ers appear heading in the right direction, another 4-5 win season seems likely.  

Three & Out

- The 49ers must’ve been privately chuckling when the Redskins traded for Brandon Lloyd and through Top 10 WR money at him. Lloyd may have talent, but he’s never caught more than 50 passes in a single season. He makes the occasional acrobatic reception, but he’s not the consistent receiver the Redskins contract offer will pay him to be.  

- You’ve got to be rooting for Eric Johnson to come back strong from a lost 2005 season. With Vernon Davis in the mix, the former 7th round draft pick out of Yale likely won’t duplicate his 82-reception season in 2004. Still, remaining healthy and productive would be a good sign for a player who has missed two of the last three seasons due to injury.

- To say that Alex Smith struggled as a rookie would be an understatement. He threw just 1 touchdown pass, and turned the ball over an astounding 13 times (11 interceptions, 2 fumbles). His 40.8 QB rating was low, even when compared to other QBs playing in their 1st season. But Smith has talent, and with a veteran backup (Dilfer), and some more dependable receivers (Bryant, Davis, Johnson), Smith should improve in 2006. If his performance against Chicago in the first pre-season game is any indication, Smith’s 2006 will be light years ahead of hiss 2005.

Fantasy Island

I wouldn’t depend on any 49er to have much of a fantasy impact in 2006. They’re simply not very good just yet. But I would take a late round pick on Frank Gore, who led the 49ers in rushing in 2005 despite being behind Kevan Barlow on the depth chart.