Pats' Branch to Hold Out

Patriots WR, and MVP of Super Bowl XXXIX, Deion Branch is expected to skip the start of the Patriots training camp, which opens on Friday, July 28th.

Of course, this does not come as any surprise to anyone who has followed the situation. Branch is in the final year of his rookie contract, and is set to earn $1.05M in 2006. While you and I wouldn't scoff at that figure, it's not exactly market value for an NFL wide receiver.

There's almost no telling what direction the Patriots will go in concerning Branch's holdout. Teams can now fine players up to $14,000 for each day of their holdout, and for a player like Branch, a 3rd round pick still working on his rookie contract, that's a lot of money. However, the Patriots are paper thin at the WR position, and entering the season without their top WR would be an arrogant mistake. With rookie Chad Jackson, Troy Brown and San Diego reject Reche Caldwell filling out the depth chart below Branch, the Patriots are in no position to let this contract matter steep for very long.

Branch's camp believes that he deserves to be paid on the same level of Indianapolis Colts WR Reggie Wayne, who signed a 6-year/$40M contract with $13.5 in guaranteed money. I'm sure they're also pointing to deals other free agent wideouts to support their position.

Washington shelled out $56M worth of contracts, as well as $20M in guaranteed money, to Antwan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd, two players who are nowhere near as good as Deion Branch. Seattle shelled out a 7-year/$49M contract to Nate Burleson (though Burleson will never see anywhere near the full value of the contract), who also isn't as good as Branch. Even Branch's former teammate, David Givens, signed a 5-year/$24M ($8M signing bonus) with the Tennessee Titans this past off-season.

So with all that money being thrown at inferior wide receivers, you can understand where Branch and his agent are coming from. He's clearly outperformed his rookie contract and deserves some long-term security as he heads into his prime production years.

But is he really worth Reggie Wayne money? Let's take a look at the stats:

2005
Reggie Wayne - 83 receptions, 1055 yards and 5 TDs
Deion Branch - 78 receptions, 998 yards and 5 TDs.

Fairly even. But, over the course of their careers:

Reggie Wayne - 77 games played, 304 receptions, 4164 yards and 28 TDs.
Deion Branch - 53 games played, 213 receptions, 2744 yards and 14 TDs.

Wayne did enter the league a year before Branch did, and has missed only 3 games due to injury in his career. Branch missed more than twice than many games in 2004, when he only played in 9 games. Wayne also has the benefit of being the "#2" guy in Indianapolis' passing attack, as he plays opposite to future Hall-of-Famer Marvin Harrison. Branch is, and has been, the best WR the Patriots have had over the last 4 years, and hey, it's the Patriots, who are as likely to throw TD passes to linebackers and eligible offensive lineman than they are to their top wide receiver.

The numbers indicate that Deion Branch deserves a contract somewhere in between what Washington gave Lloyd and Randle El, Tennessee gave David Givens, what Seattle will actually pay Nate Burleson, and the deal Reggie Wayne got from Indianapolis. Maybe it's somewhere in the 5-year/$32M range, with 8-figures of it guaranteed?

I really don't know what the numbers ultimately will be, but the Patriots have the cap room in 2006 to make the deal very sweet for both sides.