It's going to take some patience, but Wood took a pretty big step forward yesterday. Let's hope Dusty Baker is patient enough not to burn Wood out...again.
MLB First Quarter Review
Most teams will pass the 40-game mark this weekend, so it's a good time to break out the pre-season predictions I made back in March and see where we're at.
American League East
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
So far, the AL East has gone pretty much the way everyone has expected. Tampa Bay's youth and lack of pitching was going to extend their lease on last place for another season. Baltimore doesn't have the offense to keep up with Boston, New York or Toronto, and with a bullpen whose talent is on par with that of the Royals, the O's were not going anywhere (again) this year.
After an active off-season, the Blue Jays were expected to seriously challenge the Yankees and Red Sox for division supremacy. And even though they're currently in 3rd place in the division, they're only 1 game behind division-leading Boston. The big stories in New York have been the injuries in the outfield (Matsui, Sheffield, Damon and Crosby are all injured) and the end of the "Randy Johnson - Most Feared Left-Handed Starter in Baseball" era. Johnson has been getting hit, and hit hard. He's lost some heat from his fastball, and his age and long-time back ailments indicate that he won't be touching 98mph on the gun anytime soon. Boston sits atop the division, despite battling some inconsistencies on offense (particularly the early season woes of Mark Loretta and Manny Ramirez, as well as injuries to Coco Crisp, Trot Nixon and a limping Jason Varitek). The major question mark Boston had was who was going to close games, and when Keith Foulke was hit hard in his early outings, Terry Francona didn't hesist to hand the ball over to Jon Papelbon, who leads the AL in saves.
American League Central
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
The Tigers have been the biggest surprise of the 2006 season thus far, and not to sound like Peter Gammons, but if Carlos Guillen and Ivan Rodriguez can remain healthy, there's no reason to think that they can't make a serious playoff run. Justin Verlander (My choice for AL Rookie of the Year) has been phenomenal thus far, and Joel Zumaya, a rookie reliever, has been touching 101mph on the radar gun, with excellent control.
I didn't think Chicago would repeat as Central champs. I didn't think that the leadership that Aaron Rowand, Carl Everett and Frank Thomas lost in the off-season was something the Sox could overcome. I was wrong. Ozzie Guillen more than makes up for the loss of those key veterans, and adding a guy like Jim Thome never hurts. Cleveland, on the other hand, has been a bit of a disappointment. Offensively, they're still capable of posting huge numbers every night. But I have serious concerns with the bullpen (though Wickman is an effective closer), and if CC Sabathia's early season injury (missed a month) comes back, I don't think Cleveland can replace him. Some people were very high on the Twins before the season started. With the addition of Luis Castillo at 2B, and the return of CF Torii Hunter, I'm sure many expected this team to play small-ball, and win with pitching and defense. Unfortunately, only Johan Santana has managed to keep his ERA under a touchdown, and the bullpen has failed miserably. Plus, this isn't an overly athletic team, in that they lack the speed to take the extra base or test the opposing defenses. To the 48 Kansas City Royals fans, all I can say is "I'm sorry". That team is so bad, and so old, it'll be years (at least 5) before they're ready to compete for a playoff spot.
American League West
Oakland A's
Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim)
Seattle Mariners
As much as I'd love to believe that Texas is ready to make a run at the division, there are still question marks about their pitching. John Koronka and Kevin Millwood have been good, but all you need to know about the state of their pitching is that they blew a 9-0 2nd inning lead, and a 1-run lead in the 9th inning, to the Yankees on Tuesday night. Teams that win divisions don't do that. Oakland is staying above .500, which is a good sign considering this is a team that is capable of getting hot very quickly. How long they let the rest of the division nip on their heels will be interesting to see. How disappointing are the Angels? When I saw Bartolo Colon on Opening Day, I couldn't believe my eyes. He looked like he ate a few rally monkeys. Francisco Rodriguez has looked very ordinary this year, which might add some legitimacy to the rumors that his elbow isn't 100%. And what I can say about the M's? They're only 5 back, but c'mon, this isn't a team that was expected to win many games. However, the top of that lineup is hitting very well, and you can't help but wonder how many more wins they'd have if Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre didn't have one more HR combined than Jose Lopez?
National League East
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
Florida Marlins
The Mets started hot, and have managed to stay there despite some injuries in their rotation. Victor Zambrano is out with a possibly career-ending injury, and Jose Lima can not be relied upon to be the #4 starter. And how good is David Wright? In Philadelphia, 2B Chase Utley and 1B Ryan Howard have more than replaced the whallop in the heart of the order, and CF Aaron Rowand has injected some life into that clubhouse. They got off to a slow start, but this is a team that can catch the Mets. Atlanta has turned it on lately, and it wouldn't be an NL East race without the Braves. Washington and Florida are right where we expected them. The biggest news in Washington is that the sale of the team has been approved, and perhaps some much needed stability within that franchise will occurr. As disheartening as seeing it's talented team blown up must be to Marlins fans, the future looks pretty bright (provided they can keep Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera). Hanley Ramirez is as good as advertised, and Dan Uggla has really impressed early on. Jeremy Hermida, once he returns from an injury, has an incredible arm in RF, and a good bat to match.
National League Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Houston Astros
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why are people still pitching to Albert Pujols? 19 HRs in 41 games is just sick, and if teams are going to keep pitching to him, the single-season HR mark is going to wind up back in St. Louis this year. The Reds got off to a hot start, but have cooled considerably. The one sign I got of that happened was in a game against Arizona a few weeks ago, then the Reds played one of the worst defensive games I've seen all year. The amount of physical and mental errors they made, had me questioning whether or not this team was "ready" to challenge St. Louis for the division, or Philadelphia, Atlanta or NY for the wild card. Milwaukee is another young team, but unlike Cincinnati, they have better starting pitching, a better bullpen and play solid defense. They're probably not their yet, but they're close. Before the season, I thought that the keys to the Houston Astros season were a.) How quickly does Clemens take the mound after May 15th, and b.) Was Brad Lidge ok. I'll get to "a" later, but as for Brad Lidge, mentally, he appears alright. His problems have been with his mechanics, but Phil Garner had no choice but to let Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls close games for now. Hopefully for Houston, Lidge will get his delivery back on track. Aside from Greg Maddux, the Cubs are geting bad outings from their starters, and only Kansas City has scored fewer runs than Chicago has. With Derrek Lee a long ways away from coming back, you can pretty much stick a fork in Dusty Baker's crew. The Pirates would be well-served to bring in Bill Cowher for a motivational speech on winning on the road. The Bucs are just 3-17 away from PNC Park.
National League West
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers (of Los Angeles)
San Francisco Giants
The biggest story here is that every team in the NL West is over .500! Only 2 games separate San Francisco and San Diego, so unless someone breaks away from the pack (a feat any of these teams are capable of), this division likely won't be decided until the first week of October. San Diego has been red-hot lately, and its offense is finally starting to synch up with its good pitching. Arizona has been led by some solid hitting and amazing defense up the middle, the latter of which has allowed Brandon Webb to (finally) reach his potential as a true #1 guy at the top of the rotation. Webb's biggest problem was not trusting his defense enough, and because of that he tried to be too precise with his pitches, leading to a lot of free passes. In 9 starts this year, Webbh has only walked 7 batters. Colorado is getting solid starting pitching, and features relative unknowns like Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe and Garret Atkins. The return of Todd Helton from a nasty intestinal ailment can only make things better. The Dodgers problem thus far has been Danys Baez, whose 5 blown saves make the absence of Eric Gagne more pronounced. Nomar Garciaparra and JD Drew are raking at the plate this year, but when you put those two in the same sentence, it's usually to caution about injuries. And in San Francisco, I've heard a rumor that Barry Bonds is approaching some sort of historical milestone. Something about a career HR mark. I really can't be sure, because ESPN is barely mentioning it.
Where Does Roger Clemens Land?
This is the $20 million dollar (prorated over 4 months) question that everybody wants answered. Trouble is, Clemens isn't ready to give an answer yet, so we play the speculation game.
The rumored landing spots for Clemens are the Houston Astros, the Boston Red Sox, and because $20M is involved, the New York Yankees.
Clemens clearly has a history in all 3 cities, and Houston is likely the front-runner, since they will allow Clemens to a.) live close to home, b.) travel with the team only when he's pitching and c.) get to play with his son, Kody, who is a catcher in the Astros organization who will likely be called up in September to appease his old man.
At this point, and against my better judgement, I'm ready to declare that the Yankees role in this will be to merely drive the price up for Boston. The Yankees have serious problems in the starting rotation (Shawn Chacon is better suited for the bullpen), but with Hideki Matsui likely out for the year, Gary Sheffield on the DL (and with a team option for 2007, he might not hurry back to avoid re-injuring his wrist when he could be a free agent) and Johnny Damon and Bubba Crosby dinged up, the Yankees might want to use some funds to add a corner outfield with power (i.e., not Terrence Long, who they signed yesterday).
So it comes down to Boston and Houston. The Red Sox give him the best opportunity to play in the post-season. Sorry 'Stros fans, but it's true. Adding Clemens to a rotation of Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield and Matt Clement would give Boston the best rotation in the AL, and with an offense that should improve once Coco Crisp returns from injury, Boston would be poised to severely slash the time their fans will have to wait for another World Series title.
The problem is, Boston likely won't allow Clemens to come and go as he pleases, and if the money's the same, why wouldn't Clemens prefer to play this season on his terms? We are talking about the same guy who chose not to re-sign with the Red Sox, and went to Toronto because the city "reminded him of Houston".
Still, there is a possibility that Clemens will attempt to "mend fences" by returning to the Red Sox. Clemens was an immensely popular, but highly scrutinized, player when he was in Boston. There is an Opus Dei-like segment of Red Sox Nation that absolutely, positively wants nothing to do with Roger Clemens. The majority of fans, however, will likely welcome Roger back with open arms.
With Clemens, it's all about the money. To the fans, it's all about the laundry.
1 comments:
I loved your blog. Thank you.
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