WILD CARD WEEKEND- Mac's Picks

WILD CARD WEEKEND

During the regular season I’d pretty much know by Wednesday night which team I liked in each game, so it was fairly easy to make my picks. Plus, with 256 games, you could afford to throw caution to the wind and make some wild predictions.

But it’s playoff time, and we’re down to 11 do-or-die games. So in the spirit of that, I’m going logical here:

Saturday January 7th, 2006

Washington Redskins (10-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) – 430pm (ABC)

During the regular season, these two teams had a classic battle in Tampa, with the Buccaneers pulling out a 36-35 win. If you don’t remember, Jon Gruden gambled by going for the 2-point conversion to win the game, instead of kicking the field goal and playing for overtime. Now that the Buccaneers won the NFC South by virtue of a tiebreaker, Tampa Bay may not have won the game or the division without the win back in November.

Will this game be another wild, high-scoring contest? Probably not. The 30+ points each team allowed were the exceptions, not the rule, as far as 2005 was concerned. The teams rank 8th and 9th in scoring defense, so I’d expect that the winning team to have less than 20 points.  

Who Will Win and Why?

In a game as evenly matched as this one, some of the things I look for are experience, health and venue. Washington is the more experienced team, led by Mark Brunell, Clinton Portis and let’s not forget 43-year old RG Ray Brown. On the other side, Tampa is starting a 3rd year QB (Chris Simms), who is making his 1st playoff start. They’ve got a rookie RB (Cadillac Williams). How will the kids handle the pressure?

Brunell’s knee isn’t 100% and Tampa has an aggressive front 4 that puts pressure on the QB. Will Brunell be capable of escaping the pressure and making plays with his legs? And it’s not just the offense that is hurting. CB Shawn Springs will play, but has been hampered by injuries the last few weeks. Will he be healthy enough to contain speedster WR, and fellow former Seahawk, Joey Galloway?

Being the #6-seed in the playoffs means you have to go on the road, and Washington is much tougher to play in front of the 90,000 people at FedEx Field.

Two of those three areas lean heavily towards the home team. Pick: Buccaneers, 20-16

Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) at New England Patriots (10-6) – 8pm (ABC)

It’s true that the Jaguars were the last team to beat the New England Patriots in a playoff game, and I’m sure the underdogs would like nothing more than to be the team providing the bookends to the Patriots dynasty.

But it’s simply not going to happen. You’d have to be digging deeply into Ricky Williams stash to suggest that the Patriots are going to lose a home playoff game against a team as inexperienced in the postseason as the Jaguars. Even if Tedy Bruschi doesn’t play (like he’ll miss this one), the Patriots defense has moderately improved itself over the last 8 weeks.

The word(s) I’d use to describe the Jaguars offense is  “stunningly ordinary”. They’ve got a lot of talent on that side of the ball (Byron Leftwich, Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith, Reggie Williams, Ernest Wilford and Matt “Moonshine” Jones), but flutter somewhere around the middle of the pack offensively.

The Jaguars strength is their defense, primarily the middle. This will mean that the game will rest squarely on Rodney Dangerfield, er, I mean Tom Brady. The Disrespected One will be pressured, but the Patriots are one of the best screen teams in the NFL, and that should slow down the monsters the Jaguars have along the defensive line. Plus, the weakness of the Jaguars defense is the secondary, particularly Rashean Mathis, who is morphing into a Terrell Buckley clone.

Who Will Win and Why?

The Patriots, and I’m not buying into the “this game will be closer than people realize” shtick. Could it be? Yeah, since you never know how much of the playbook Bill Belichick is willing to show. He may be content to keep it close, run even if it’s not working to drain the clock, and trust his veteran team to make enough big plays for Adam Vinateiri to film another Ford commercial.

But I see the Patriots making a statement, and putting the rest of the NFL on notice. Pick: Patriots, 31-10

Sunday, January 8th, 2006

Carolina Panthers (11-5) at New York Giants (11-5) – 1pm (FOX)

The most intriguing aspect of the week leading up to a playoff game in the NFL is the way some teams shoot themselves in the foot in the media. This week, we had Osi Umenyiora (DE, NYG) saying that he and Michael Strahan are better than the Panthers tandem of Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker. He’s right, but he’s not doing the false-start happy Luke Petitgout and Kareem McKenzie any favors.

The New York Giants seem like a confident bunch, don’t they? It’s like they know something no one else knows. Why I don’t like the Giants chances in the postseason:

1. 2nd year QB playing in his 1st NFL playoff game


2. Total lack of discipline (penalties, dropped passes, players quitting on plays, a la Shockey against the ‘Skins 2 weeks ago)


3. Terrell Buckley sees significant time covering actual NFL WRs


4. No depth at LB…and no skill there, either


5. Overly dependent on one player with a history of fumbling

The way the Giants are talking, they’re reminiscent of a teenaged girl taking a midnight swim at Camp Crystal Lake.  They have no idea what they’re in for, and you almost feel badly for them.

Who Will Win and Why?

The Panthers have the defense to stop Barber and force Young Eli into making some unfortunate throws. They have a deep threat (Steve Smith) that nobody on the Giants defense can cover, and depth at the WR position to attack the Giants zone defense. Plus, they’ve got experience going on the road in January. Pick: Panthers, 28-20

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) – 430pm (CBS)

When I look at this game, I’m reminded of the Seahawks-Rams duels from last season. Sure, the Bengals won the division and got the home-field edge, but they don’t have much playoff experience (or success) to fall back on. In the minds of the Steelers, the AFC North is still theirs, and they’ll be looking to make that point well known.

I’ve been waiting for the Bengals to improve, and Marvin Lewis has really done a tremendous job with that team. Carson Palmer has developed into one of the Top 5 QBs in the NFL, and Chad Johnson is the funniest, and most entertaining player in the game, as well as being an All-Pro-caliber WR. The part that turns me off about Cincinnati, and it’s surprising considering Marvin Lewis coaches them, is their defense.

Who Will Win and Why?

The Pittsburgh Steelers have experience, motivation and a whole bunch of momentum heading into Cincinnati, where they already beat the Bengals once this season. With the Bengals suspect run defense (20th in the NFL), and the Steelers 5th-ranked rushing offense, I wouldn’t feel too confident taking the Bengals. As entertaining as multiple end zone celebrations from Chad Johnson would be…Pick: Steelers, 27-21.