- Since 2000, in the Divisional Playoff round, when the two teams faced each other just one time during the regular season, the winner of that earlier match-up has won the rematch in the post-season.
Come on, that’s not a statistic. That’s a “leg warmer” stat, a recent trend that totally lacks scientific merit.
- The Seahawks haven’t won a playoff game since 1984.
Ok, but how many current Seahawks were playing back then? Zero. In fact, the 43-year old Ray Brown, who is starting at RG for the Washington Redskins this weekend, wasn’t in the NFL yet.
The list is endless. Even this “stat”, while impressive, is useless:
- Bill Belichick hasn’t lost to the same team twice in one season.
Nice stat, but you have to qualify that with “Since 2001”, as Belichick-coached teams have been swept by their opponents in the past. The need to qualify such a number, to me, negates the point you’re trying to make.
Some statistics do have merit, though. For example, since 1990 (the year the current playoff system was established), the home team has dominated their visitors in the Divisional Playoff round. Here’s how the home team has done, by round, in that 15-year span:
Wild Card 43-17 .717
Divisonal Round 49-11 .817
Conference Champ 17-13 .567
82% of the time, the home team has won in the Divisional Playoffs. That’s an impressive number. When you go back even further, into the 10 years leading up to the addition of 2 wild card teams, the home teams won 77% of the time in the Divisional Playoffs.
Historical numbers aside, the main reason for optimism in the 4 host cities this weekend is this: Indianapolis, Seattle, Denver and Chicago combined on a 30-2 record at home in 2005. Teams have an obvious advantage when playing at home, but almost as important as playing in front of your home fans and not having to travel is the bye week. This week’s home teams are already very tough to beat in their own yard, they’re well rested, and in the playoffs, health matters above most everything else.
Saturday, January 14th, 2006
*Full Seahawks-Redskins Preview will be up later.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos – 8pm – CBS
Despite putting together a brilliant 13-3 season and having home-field advantage against a team that they already beat this season, the Broncos don’t seem to be getting a lot of attention this week. It’s appropriate that Tom Brady is leading the Patriots into Denver, as maybe now he’ll realize that there are teams out there that have gotten less respect than his has.
Clearly, this is not the same Patriots team that lost to Denver a few months ago. The Patriots were without RBs Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk. Matt Light had just gotten injured. Richard Seymour didn’t play and Tedy Bruschi had not yet returned to action.
So this game is going to be much different, right? Well, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here.
Denver didn’t go 13-3 on accident. We’re talking about a team that finished 2nd in the NFL in rushing and their 16 giveaways were fewest in the NFL in 2005. On defense, they stop the run (2nd in the NFL in that category) and they created the 3rd-most turnovers. So, this is a very good team that the New England Dangerfields are facing this weekend.
This isn’t to take anything away from the Patriots. As long as they have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, they’re a threat in the post-season. They key for them is winning the battles up front, creating lanes for Corey Dillon to run through and keeping the Broncos offense off the field. If they can do those things, they’ll advance to the AFC Championship game.
I just don’t see that happening. Dynasty…over. (For now, anyways)
Mac’s Pick: Denver 27, New England 20
Sunday, January 15th, 2006
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts – 1pm – CBS
If anyone had any doubts about whether or not the Colts would be mentally prepared to play this game, let me assure you of one thing: It’s not an issue. This is a veteran, well-coached team who will be ready to play despite the last month where the 1st unit hasn’t played too much and the entire organization has mourned the loss of a loved one.
Clearly, the Colts are the best team in the National Football League and deserve to be the prohibitive favorites to win Super Bowl XL.
Pittsburgh comes into town as one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and probably the team nobody wants to play. They play perfect playoff football, meaning they run the football and stop the run. That’s the winning formula in January, for sure.
The road that the Steelers have to travel is pretty difficult. Playing in Indianapolis is a great challenge, and the last time the Steelers went in there (late November), the Colts thoroughly dominated them. While I expect this game to be much closer, the result will ultimately be the same.
Mac’s Pick: Indianapolis 35, Pittsburgh 27
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears – 430pm – FOX
The Bears thoroughly dominated the Panthers when they met earlier this season, beating them 13-3 and registering 8 sacks on Jake Delhomme, and picking him off twice.
The Panthers defense is playing with a lot of confidence after shutting out the Giants, and more importantly, shutting down Tiki Barber. If they can stop Barber, they most assuredly can stop Thomas Jones. The Panthers want to put this game on Rex Grossman, he of 7 NFL starts in his career.
As tough as the Bears defense is, it’s not impossible to move the ball on them. It’s just very difficult to score, and that’s the ultimate measure of a good defense.
So what will ultimately determine the outcome of the game? When you’ve got two tough defenses, who don’t allow many points, the game could come down to the kicking game. Punters can have an impact on the field position, and when the offenses do get a drive going, which kicker is more likely to deliver a valuable 3 points? Carolina has a veteran kicker, John Kasay, whose kicked in dozens of big games over his career. Chicago has a rookie kicker, Robbie Gould, who has not.
Mac’s Pick: Carolina 16, Chicago 10
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