Thursday, December 29, 2005
NFL Week 17 - Mac's Picks
NFL Week 17 – Mac’s Picks
Last week: 9-5-2
Overall: 131-103-6
The last week of the NFL regular season is upon us. Went by quickly, didn’t it?
Denver at San Diego Ok, we know that the Broncos are going to sit most of their key players, so this should be a game San Diego wins easily (since they’re so damn good and all). But, why not play Philip Rivers? It’s a golden opportunity for the Chargers to show off the former #1 pick to potential suitors, but it’s not going to happen. Why not? Marty Schottenheimer and the GM (A.J. Smith) don’t get along. Look for Marty to get the heave-ho after the season, and the Chargers to get below market value for Rivers. Pick: Chargers –10 ½
NY Giants at Oakland Kerry Collins has a golden opportunity to put a crimp in the Giants hopes of winning the NFC East. He’d love to get some revenge against his former team, and he’d get it, too, if he didn’t, you know, suck. Pick: Giants –9
Arizona at Indianapolis Losing 3 straight heading into January isn’t what the Colts wanted. We know that they’re resting their banged up players, and nobody could expect the team to be focused on football with what’s happened with Tony Dungy’s son, but the once invincible Colts team suddenly appear vulnerable. Pick: Cardinals +6 ½
Baltimore at Cleveland The fans in Cleveland don’t have many reasons to hate the Ravens now that Art Modell has sold the team. But they can at least take some perverse joy in seeing their former team stick with Brian Billick for another (disappointing) season. Pick: Browns +3
Buffalo at NY Jets Do you think Ty Law and Lawyer Milloy realize that money isn’t as important as one’s legacy, and that they could be playing for a playoff team right now? Me neither…. Pick: Bills –1
Carolina at Atlanta Maybe I’m old school, but when a team invests $130 million dollars in a player, and they expect him to be their leader, he shouldn’t be seen laughing on the field after his team just lost a game that eliminated them from the post-season. Pick: Panthers –4
Cincinnati at Kansas City The playoffs appear out of reach for the Chiefs, who need a miracle to make the playoffs (actually a Lions win, which would qualify as a miracle). With Vermeil probably retiring, dump your Kleenex stock now! Pick: Chiefs -7
Detroit at Pittsburgh At Qwest Field in Seattle, they have a huge display of all the helmets of the high school football teams in Washington state. Today, I heard a Steelers beat-writer on KJR-950AM in Seattle say that the Lions couldn’t beat two-thirds of those teams. You know what? I think he’s right. Pick: Steelers –14
Miami at New England If you’re a Patriots fans, you want your team to take a dive. If your team wins, and the Bengals lose, the Patriots have the #3 seed in the AFC and will play Pittsburgh next weekend. If they lose, they guarantee themselves a date with the Jacksonville Jaguars…in Foxboro…in January. Pick: Dolphins +6
New Orleans at Tampa Bay I hate this game. I have no faith in the Bucs to win by that much, but I also don’t trust the Saints to show up for the season finale. This season can’t end soon enough for them, for obvious reasons. Pick: Saints +13 ½ (and by doing this, I’m already breaking about 3 New Year’s resolutions I’ve made)
Seattle at Green Bay Seattle is resting a lot of players, so there’s not much to talk about with them. Shocking, I know. So what about Brett Favre? Should he retire or should he come back for one season. Look, whether you like the guy or not, physically he can still play the game. Yes, he’s thrown 28 INTs this year, but when your 36-year old QB is the healthiest guy you’ve got, and is your only playmaker, his numbers are going to suffer. Give #4 a healthy Ahman Green, Javon Walker and Bubba Franks, and this becomes a non-issue. The real question is whether or not he wants to come back. I think he does. Pick: Seahawks “B” Team +3 ½
Houston at San Francisco If the Texans lose, the 1st overall pick in the 2006 NFL Draft is theirs. If they win, the math gets so confusing, Will Hunting couldn’t figure it out. So given that the Texans should want to lose, and Dom Capers is prominently involved…Pick: Texans –2
Tennessee at Jacksonville It still cracks me up that Jacksonville is going to go 12-4, and nobody will give them a shot to beat the Patriots next week. Pick: Jaguars –3 ½
Chicago at Minnesota Personally, the funniest moment for me was watching Koren Robinson in last week’s game. Fresh off being named to the Pro-Bowl as a KR, and going on the NFL Network to boast about how he’s turned his life around and hopes to one day make the Pro-Bowl as a WR, K-Rob drops a key pass as the Vikings lose a game they needed to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I almost felt bad for him. Almost. Pick: Bears +3 ½
Washington at Philadelphia At this point, I can’t even name 3 healthy players on the Philadelphia Eagles offense. Pick: Redskins –7
St. Louis at Dallas This game should prove to be meaningless, but wouldn’t it be great to see the Cowboys capable of getting into the playoffs with a win, only to choke? Wouldn’t that just define their season and be an entertaining way to see Parcells bow out of the coaching profession? Would the shock on Jimmy Jones face damage his 43rd face-lift? Pick: Rams +12 ½
Wednesday, December 28, 2005
NFL Playoffs: A Viewer's Guide
Since the playoff teams are pretty much set, here's a look at what to expect in January.
AFC
1. Indianapolis (13-2)
2. Denver (12-3)
3. Cincinnati (11-4)
4. New England (10-5)
5. Jacksonville (11-4)
6. Pittsburgh (10-5)
7. Kansas City (9-6)
Kansas City needs nothing short of a miracle to make the playoffs. In addition to needing a win and a Steelers loss, the Chiefs also need a Chargers loss on Saturday to have a shot at the playoffs. With Denver resting some key players for the playoffs, that's not likely to happen.
New England could move up into the #3 spot with a win over the Dolphins and a loss by the Bengals in KC. I'd actually argue that this is exactly what New England fans shouldn't want. Drawing Jacksonville at home is much better for the Pats than getting the red-hot Steelers at this point.
NFC
1. Seattle (13-2)
2. Chicago (11-4)
3. Tampa Bay (10-5)
4. NY Giants (10-5)
5. Carolina (10-5)
6. Washington (9-6)
7. Dallas (9-6)
The top two slots are all set, but we could see a fair amount of shuffling among the other teams. In order:
Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South (and #3 seed) with a win over New Orleans on Sunday OR Carolina loss OR Tampa Bay tie + Carolina tie; Tampa Bay will clinch a playoff spot with a win/tie OR Dallas loss/tie OR Washington loss/tie OR NYG win/tie.
NY Giants can clinch the NFC East with a win over Oakland on Saturday night. They've already clinched a playoff spot.
Carolina can clinch the NFC South with a win over Atlanta AND a Tampa Bay loss; Carolina can clinch a playoff spot with a win/tie OR Dallas loss/tie OR Washington loss/tie.
Washington can clinch the NFC East with a win over Philadelphia AND a NY Giants loss; Washington can clinch a playoff spot with a win OR Dallas loss OR a Washington and Dallas tie.
Dallas can clinch a playoff spot with a win + Washington loss/tie OR Dallas win + Carolina loss OR Dallas win + Tampa Bay loss + NYG loss OR Dallas tie + Washington loss.
It would take a really bizarre set of circumstances for the Cowboys to get in, so I think we can safely assume that they won't be making the playoffs this year.
Mac's Crystall Ball Look at the Brackets
AFC
1. Indianapolis
2. Denver
Wild Card Weekend
#6 Pittsburgh at #3 Cincinnati
#5 Jacksonville at #4 New England
NFC
1. Seattle
2. Chicago
Wild Card Weekend
#6 Washington at #3 Tampa Bay
#5 Carolina at #4 NY Giants
This is about what you all had at the beginning of the year, isn't it? I just took a glance at my pre-season predictions, and all I can is "Whoops!". Put it this way, Chicago and Denver have 1st round byes, and I had both of them finishing last in their division. Still, I don't think it's as bad as Tom Jackson stating before the season that the first QB to be benched this year will be Matt Hasselbeck, who is the only legitimate QB in NFC going to the Pro-Bowl.
But I digress. Ok, so now that we have our playoff teams, what's the scoop?
AFC
Indianapolis Colts - You'd have to do some serious digging to find some flies on this team. Easily, they're the most talented team in the NFL. They've got a high-powered offense and finally found the right parts on the defensive side of the ball to give Tony Dungy the balance that he's been looking for, both in Tampa and Indianapolis. As we head into January, just about every tangible element points to the Colts to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XL. Even with the recent tragedy (Dungy's son passing), the Colts are still, on paper, the best team in the NFL.
This does not mean that they can expect to coast through the playoffs. San Diego provided the blueprint for beating the Colts, and even with the corrections that Indy most definitely will make, that they lost at home to a good team gives the rest of the pack hope.
Denver Broncos - Has any team that earned a 1st round bye received less publicity than the 2005 Denver Broncos? They have a great running game and Jake Plummer has been playing out of his mind this year. In fact, Denver has the 5th-ranked offense in the NFL, yet no Bronco player on that side of the ball made the Pro-Bowl. What does that tell you about the coaching and scheme that they've got?
The key to the Broncos defense is the linebackers, who are collectively the best group the NFL has to offer. They spearhead the #3 rush defense in the NFL. The secondary features 2 Pro-Bowlers (John Lynch, Champ Bailey), despite ranking 29th in the NFL against the pass. The rookies at CB (Darrent Williams, Dominique Foxworth) could be picked apart by QBs like Manning, Brady and Palmer.
Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals have an explosive offense, capable of grinding games out behind the running of Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry, or they could open things up and throw downfield to Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmandzadeh and Tab Perry. Carson Palmer has blossomed into a Pro-Bowl/MVP-type of QB.
The strength of the Bengals is their ability to create turnovers. Led by Pro-Bowl CB Deltha O'Neal, Cincinnati is an AFC-best +25 in turnover ratio (including 31 interceptions). It is perceived that the best way to beat the Bengals is to run right at them, so a team like Pittsburgh could upset them in the Wild Card game.
New England Patriots - The team nobody wants to face in the playoffs is peaking at just the right time. Offensively, they've got healthy in key areas (WR, RB) and Tom Brady gets my vote for MVP. The weakness, or should I say the unknown entity, on the Patriots is the offfensive line, which is playing without Dan Koppen and Matt Light.
Defensively, I'm still of the opinion that their recent success has more to do with the (lack of) offensive talent they've been facing. Since they've seemingly "turned it around", the Patriots have faced one good offensive team, Kansas City, and they gave up 420 yards of total offense in that loss.
Still, who is going to bet against Belichick, Brady, Bruschi and the boys in January?
Jacksonville Jaguars - The reward for likely finishing 12-4 is a trip to Foxboro in early January? Offensively, the Jaguars won't scare anyone. They've got a steady running game with Fred Taylor and Greg Jones, and that is important to have in the playoffs. Without QB Byron Leftwich, the Jags will need to rely on the ground game. Leftwich's replacement, David Garrard, gives them more mobility and perhaps more play-making ability at the position, but it really limits what the talented WRs (Jimmy Smith, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford) are capable of doing.
The strength of the Jaguars is the defense, primarily up the middle. They've got two monsters in the middle of the line (Marcus Stroud, John Henderson) and a physical group of linebackers. The weakness is the secondary, so if you can give your QB enough time, he could have a field day against Rashean Mathis & Co.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Again, another playoff-tested team hitting it's stride at the right time. You do have to quantify that a bit, since the Steelers have been racking up wins against inferior competition lately, but what the Steelers do best (run the ball, stop the run) will make them tough to beat in the post-season.
NFC
Seattle Seahawks - Let's not pull any punches here: The Seahawks are the best team in the NFC, and as long as teams have to travel to the Emerald City, they're the prohibitive favorite.
Offensively, the Seahawks are ranked #1 in both yardage (378.0 pg) and scoring (29.0 pts per game). They have the best offensive line in the NFL, the best RB in the NFL, a Pro-Bowl FB, the best QB in the NFC and they've got the most depth at the WR/TE position. Playing at home, this team is going to score points, and they've shown that it doesn't really matter who is playing against them.
Defensively, the Seahawks rank a surprising 15th in the NFL in total defense. Even more surprising, is that they're ranked 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, which is the more accurate measure of a team's defense. After all, keeping the other team off the scoreboard is all that matters, right?
I do not see anyone going into Seattle and beating the Seahawks. They were 8-0 at home for the 2nd time in 3 seasons. I can understand the hestitation many have towards the Seahawks. After all, it's been over 20 years since they've won a playoff game. But, as they've done all season long, they'll exorcize that demon in due time.
Chicago Bears - It's no real secret that the Bears arguably have the league's best defense. Coupled with playing at home (for at least 1 game), that could spell trouble for the rest of the conference.
Offensively, the Bears are not an impressive bunch. They've gotten an incredible performance this year out of Thomas Jones, and they've recently resurrected the offense by replacing QB Kyle Orton with Rex Grossman, but this is not an offense that is going to score 20+ points a game in the post-season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Another team that lets its defense do the talking for them, the Bucs have quite a few things going in their favor. Not only are they solid defensively, but they protect the football on offense by keeping it on the ground and not allowing QB Chris Simms, who is developing nicely, to make too many mistakes with it.
Playoff-wise, this team is 3 years removed from winning a Super Bowl, so much of the roster knows exactly what it takes to get it done. The same can be said for Jon Gruden, so it's possible that "Chucky" could make an appearance in the Motor City this February.
New York Giants - Despite the recent additions of WR Plaxico Burress and QB Eli Manning, the offense still runs through Tiki Barber, who has enjoyed a resurgence after turning 30, the age in which a lot of RBs begin to wither. Truth is, the inconsistent play of Manning, Burress, Shockey and the offensive line, is part of the reason why this team will only go as far as Tiki takes them.
Defensively, the Giants have the best pair of pass-rushers in the NFL. Michael Strahan has slimmed down without losing an ounce of strength and Osi Umenyiora has gone from being an known guy with an unpronouncable name to the 2006 Pro-Bowl. However, there are question marks on the back end of it. The secondary isn't very talented and the linebacking corps has taken so many hits, they've added 2 street free agents in the last two weeks.
The Giants will be tough to beat in the Meadowlands, but I don't think this group has the maturity and discipline it takes to win on the road. Between the dropped passes, false starts and giving up on plays/games, the Giants don't appear ready to go deep into the NFC playoffs.
Carolina Panthers - Like the Bucs, the Panthers have some Super Bowl run experience to fall back on. John Fox is as underrated a coach you can find in the NFL, as well. He'll have this team ready to play in January, provided they get in, first!
Offensively, the Panthers are still a team that uses the run to set up the pass. With Stephen Davis out of the mix, the team has to lean heavily on DeShaun Foster, which has yieled mixed results at best. The Panthers do have one of the NFL's best WRs in Steve Smith, and the complimentary WRs (Ricky Proehl, Keary Colbert) have excellent hands.
This is another team that is strong defensively. Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker can make life miserable for opposing QBs, often forcing bad throws which the opportunistic secondary (Ken Lucas, Chris Gamble, Mike Minter) turns into turnovers.
Washington Redskins - The "power running game" is alive and well in the Nation's capital. With Clinton Portis in the backfield, the Redskins are content to give the ball to him 25-30 times a game to wear a defense down, and then use the play-action to rollout Mark Brunell to hit the smallish Redskins WRs. Plus, opposing defenses have to account for TE/H-Back Chris Cooley who has 7 TD receptions this year.
Gregg Williams runs a highly physical defense. They're stingy against both the run and pass (7th in the NFL in total defense) and while they don't have a true pass-rusher, they blitz effectively, sending anyone from anywhere.
Dallas Cowboys - Hahaha...
AFC
1. Indianapolis (13-2)
2. Denver (12-3)
3. Cincinnati (11-4)
4. New England (10-5)
5. Jacksonville (11-4)
6. Pittsburgh (10-5)
7. Kansas City (9-6)
Kansas City needs nothing short of a miracle to make the playoffs. In addition to needing a win and a Steelers loss, the Chiefs also need a Chargers loss on Saturday to have a shot at the playoffs. With Denver resting some key players for the playoffs, that's not likely to happen.
New England could move up into the #3 spot with a win over the Dolphins and a loss by the Bengals in KC. I'd actually argue that this is exactly what New England fans shouldn't want. Drawing Jacksonville at home is much better for the Pats than getting the red-hot Steelers at this point.
NFC
1. Seattle (13-2)
2. Chicago (11-4)
3. Tampa Bay (10-5)
4. NY Giants (10-5)
5. Carolina (10-5)
6. Washington (9-6)
7. Dallas (9-6)
The top two slots are all set, but we could see a fair amount of shuffling among the other teams. In order:
Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South (and #3 seed) with a win over New Orleans on Sunday OR Carolina loss OR Tampa Bay tie + Carolina tie; Tampa Bay will clinch a playoff spot with a win/tie OR Dallas loss/tie OR Washington loss/tie OR NYG win/tie.
NY Giants can clinch the NFC East with a win over Oakland on Saturday night. They've already clinched a playoff spot.
Carolina can clinch the NFC South with a win over Atlanta AND a Tampa Bay loss; Carolina can clinch a playoff spot with a win/tie OR Dallas loss/tie OR Washington loss/tie.
Washington can clinch the NFC East with a win over Philadelphia AND a NY Giants loss; Washington can clinch a playoff spot with a win OR Dallas loss OR a Washington and Dallas tie.
Dallas can clinch a playoff spot with a win + Washington loss/tie OR Dallas win + Carolina loss OR Dallas win + Tampa Bay loss + NYG loss OR Dallas tie + Washington loss.
It would take a really bizarre set of circumstances for the Cowboys to get in, so I think we can safely assume that they won't be making the playoffs this year.
Mac's Crystall Ball Look at the Brackets
AFC
1. Indianapolis
2. Denver
Wild Card Weekend
#6 Pittsburgh at #3 Cincinnati
#5 Jacksonville at #4 New England
NFC
1. Seattle
2. Chicago
Wild Card Weekend
#6 Washington at #3 Tampa Bay
#5 Carolina at #4 NY Giants
This is about what you all had at the beginning of the year, isn't it? I just took a glance at my pre-season predictions, and all I can is "Whoops!". Put it this way, Chicago and Denver have 1st round byes, and I had both of them finishing last in their division. Still, I don't think it's as bad as Tom Jackson stating before the season that the first QB to be benched this year will be Matt Hasselbeck, who is the only legitimate QB in NFC going to the Pro-Bowl.
But I digress. Ok, so now that we have our playoff teams, what's the scoop?
AFC
Indianapolis Colts - You'd have to do some serious digging to find some flies on this team. Easily, they're the most talented team in the NFL. They've got a high-powered offense and finally found the right parts on the defensive side of the ball to give Tony Dungy the balance that he's been looking for, both in Tampa and Indianapolis. As we head into January, just about every tangible element points to the Colts to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XL. Even with the recent tragedy (Dungy's son passing), the Colts are still, on paper, the best team in the NFL.
This does not mean that they can expect to coast through the playoffs. San Diego provided the blueprint for beating the Colts, and even with the corrections that Indy most definitely will make, that they lost at home to a good team gives the rest of the pack hope.
Denver Broncos - Has any team that earned a 1st round bye received less publicity than the 2005 Denver Broncos? They have a great running game and Jake Plummer has been playing out of his mind this year. In fact, Denver has the 5th-ranked offense in the NFL, yet no Bronco player on that side of the ball made the Pro-Bowl. What does that tell you about the coaching and scheme that they've got?
The key to the Broncos defense is the linebackers, who are collectively the best group the NFL has to offer. They spearhead the #3 rush defense in the NFL. The secondary features 2 Pro-Bowlers (John Lynch, Champ Bailey), despite ranking 29th in the NFL against the pass. The rookies at CB (Darrent Williams, Dominique Foxworth) could be picked apart by QBs like Manning, Brady and Palmer.
Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals have an explosive offense, capable of grinding games out behind the running of Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry, or they could open things up and throw downfield to Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmandzadeh and Tab Perry. Carson Palmer has blossomed into a Pro-Bowl/MVP-type of QB.
The strength of the Bengals is their ability to create turnovers. Led by Pro-Bowl CB Deltha O'Neal, Cincinnati is an AFC-best +25 in turnover ratio (including 31 interceptions). It is perceived that the best way to beat the Bengals is to run right at them, so a team like Pittsburgh could upset them in the Wild Card game.
New England Patriots - The team nobody wants to face in the playoffs is peaking at just the right time. Offensively, they've got healthy in key areas (WR, RB) and Tom Brady gets my vote for MVP. The weakness, or should I say the unknown entity, on the Patriots is the offfensive line, which is playing without Dan Koppen and Matt Light.
Defensively, I'm still of the opinion that their recent success has more to do with the (lack of) offensive talent they've been facing. Since they've seemingly "turned it around", the Patriots have faced one good offensive team, Kansas City, and they gave up 420 yards of total offense in that loss.
Still, who is going to bet against Belichick, Brady, Bruschi and the boys in January?
Jacksonville Jaguars - The reward for likely finishing 12-4 is a trip to Foxboro in early January? Offensively, the Jaguars won't scare anyone. They've got a steady running game with Fred Taylor and Greg Jones, and that is important to have in the playoffs. Without QB Byron Leftwich, the Jags will need to rely on the ground game. Leftwich's replacement, David Garrard, gives them more mobility and perhaps more play-making ability at the position, but it really limits what the talented WRs (Jimmy Smith, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford) are capable of doing.
The strength of the Jaguars is the defense, primarily up the middle. They've got two monsters in the middle of the line (Marcus Stroud, John Henderson) and a physical group of linebackers. The weakness is the secondary, so if you can give your QB enough time, he could have a field day against Rashean Mathis & Co.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Again, another playoff-tested team hitting it's stride at the right time. You do have to quantify that a bit, since the Steelers have been racking up wins against inferior competition lately, but what the Steelers do best (run the ball, stop the run) will make them tough to beat in the post-season.
NFC
Seattle Seahawks - Let's not pull any punches here: The Seahawks are the best team in the NFC, and as long as teams have to travel to the Emerald City, they're the prohibitive favorite.
Offensively, the Seahawks are ranked #1 in both yardage (378.0 pg) and scoring (29.0 pts per game). They have the best offensive line in the NFL, the best RB in the NFL, a Pro-Bowl FB, the best QB in the NFC and they've got the most depth at the WR/TE position. Playing at home, this team is going to score points, and they've shown that it doesn't really matter who is playing against them.
Defensively, the Seahawks rank a surprising 15th in the NFL in total defense. Even more surprising, is that they're ranked 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, which is the more accurate measure of a team's defense. After all, keeping the other team off the scoreboard is all that matters, right?
I do not see anyone going into Seattle and beating the Seahawks. They were 8-0 at home for the 2nd time in 3 seasons. I can understand the hestitation many have towards the Seahawks. After all, it's been over 20 years since they've won a playoff game. But, as they've done all season long, they'll exorcize that demon in due time.
Chicago Bears - It's no real secret that the Bears arguably have the league's best defense. Coupled with playing at home (for at least 1 game), that could spell trouble for the rest of the conference.
Offensively, the Bears are not an impressive bunch. They've gotten an incredible performance this year out of Thomas Jones, and they've recently resurrected the offense by replacing QB Kyle Orton with Rex Grossman, but this is not an offense that is going to score 20+ points a game in the post-season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Another team that lets its defense do the talking for them, the Bucs have quite a few things going in their favor. Not only are they solid defensively, but they protect the football on offense by keeping it on the ground and not allowing QB Chris Simms, who is developing nicely, to make too many mistakes with it.
Playoff-wise, this team is 3 years removed from winning a Super Bowl, so much of the roster knows exactly what it takes to get it done. The same can be said for Jon Gruden, so it's possible that "Chucky" could make an appearance in the Motor City this February.
New York Giants - Despite the recent additions of WR Plaxico Burress and QB Eli Manning, the offense still runs through Tiki Barber, who has enjoyed a resurgence after turning 30, the age in which a lot of RBs begin to wither. Truth is, the inconsistent play of Manning, Burress, Shockey and the offensive line, is part of the reason why this team will only go as far as Tiki takes them.
Defensively, the Giants have the best pair of pass-rushers in the NFL. Michael Strahan has slimmed down without losing an ounce of strength and Osi Umenyiora has gone from being an known guy with an unpronouncable name to the 2006 Pro-Bowl. However, there are question marks on the back end of it. The secondary isn't very talented and the linebacking corps has taken so many hits, they've added 2 street free agents in the last two weeks.
The Giants will be tough to beat in the Meadowlands, but I don't think this group has the maturity and discipline it takes to win on the road. Between the dropped passes, false starts and giving up on plays/games, the Giants don't appear ready to go deep into the NFC playoffs.
Carolina Panthers - Like the Bucs, the Panthers have some Super Bowl run experience to fall back on. John Fox is as underrated a coach you can find in the NFL, as well. He'll have this team ready to play in January, provided they get in, first!
Offensively, the Panthers are still a team that uses the run to set up the pass. With Stephen Davis out of the mix, the team has to lean heavily on DeShaun Foster, which has yieled mixed results at best. The Panthers do have one of the NFL's best WRs in Steve Smith, and the complimentary WRs (Ricky Proehl, Keary Colbert) have excellent hands.
This is another team that is strong defensively. Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker can make life miserable for opposing QBs, often forcing bad throws which the opportunistic secondary (Ken Lucas, Chris Gamble, Mike Minter) turns into turnovers.
Washington Redskins - The "power running game" is alive and well in the Nation's capital. With Clinton Portis in the backfield, the Redskins are content to give the ball to him 25-30 times a game to wear a defense down, and then use the play-action to rollout Mark Brunell to hit the smallish Redskins WRs. Plus, opposing defenses have to account for TE/H-Back Chris Cooley who has 7 TD receptions this year.
Gregg Williams runs a highly physical defense. They're stingy against both the run and pass (7th in the NFL in total defense) and while they don't have a true pass-rusher, they blitz effectively, sending anyone from anywhere.
Dallas Cowboys - Hahaha...
Thursday, December 22, 2005
NFL Week 16 - Mac's Picks
NFL Week 16 – Mac’s Picks (The Christmas Edition)
Last week: A pedestrian 6-10
Overall: 122-98-4
Atlanta at Tampa Bay All Michael Vick wants for Christmas is a better alias and a win to keep his team’s playoff hopes alive. Derrick Brooks will be playing the role of “Scrooge” this Saturday, though. Pick: Buccaneers –3
Buffalo at Cincinnati Bengals WR Chad Johnson says he struck Rudolph on the highway, and is keeping him in his garage. You know, if most of the guys in NFL said this, we’d be horrified. But with Chad Johnson, it’s bizarrely entertaining and comical. Pick: Bengals –14
Dallas at Carolina When his team trailed the Redskins 35-0 last Sunday, Bill Parcells had the look of a man with a mouth full of rancid eggnog. Sorry Bill, that’s just your offensive line and statuesque quarterback. Pick: Panthers –5
Detroit at New Orleans The NFL has several good games on this holiday weekend. This, ladies and gentlemen, is the fruitcake portion of the schedule. Pick: Saints –3
Jacksonville at Houston The more Jacksonville tries to convince that they’ve been nice this year, the less they do to actually show it. Beating the 49ers by one measly point is inexcusable, and the main reason they’re going to get hammered in Foxboro in January. Pick: Jaguars –6
NY Giants at Washington The Giants have been getting presents all season long. From an additional home game in Week 2 to the one-armed effort by the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15. Pick: Redskins –3
Pittsburgh at Cleveland Well, it appears that Coach Chin is going to get into the playoffs, after all. With an ending schedule of Minnesota, Cleveland and Detroit, this is going to feel more like Hanukkah for the Steelers. Instead of one day of presents, they get 3 weeks. Pick: Steelers –7
San Diego at Kansas City Dick Vermeil got his Christmas present in the emergence of Larry Johnson. What that guy has done in only 7 starts is startling. He could break all the records, folks. Oh, and nobody beats the Chiefs at Arrowhead in December. Pick: Chiefs –1
San Francisco at St. Louis …and Mike Martz in the unemployment line! On the 3rd day of Christmas…Pick: Rams –9 ½
Tennessee at Miami Unfortunately for Steve McNair, some ill-advised spending by the Titans front office in the past has sort of spoiled the last few Christmas mornings. By the time they get it straightened out, McNair will be long since retired. Pick: Dolphins –5 ½
Philadelphia at Arizona Ok, who had Week 15 in the “week Kurt Warner’s season ends” pool? They did sign Rohan Davey, and who wouldn’t like to see him get a shot at the QB job in the desert? Pick: Cardinals +1 ½
Indianapolis at Seattle After what’s happened in the last 24 hours, this game is even more meaningless to the Indianapolis Colts. Pick: Seahawks –7 ½
Oakland at Denver We know Randy Moss is probably hoping to find a healthy hamstring in his stocking this year, but you know, after a couple of injury-plagued seasons, you have to start wondering if his injuries are going to be an annual occurrence. Pick: Denver –13
Chicago at Green Bay I think every football fan wants to see Brett Favre come back in 2006 with a healthy supporting cast and a playoff appearance. There’s gotta be another good year in that guy, and hopefully, it’ll come in a Packers uniform. Pick: Bears –7
Minnesota at Baltimore We know that there’s plenty of “naughty” on both sides of the field in this one. Pick: Vikings –2
New England at NY Jets So not only have the Jets had a miserable season, they don’t even get to drown their collective sorrow in alcohol. Pick: Patriots –6
MNF Tiebreaker: 35
Monday, December 19, 2005
Mele Kalikimaka
Today and tomorrow, the NFL players and coaches are going to sit down and make their selections for the 2006 NFL Pro Bowl game to be played February 13th, 2006 in beautiful Honolulu, Hawai'i. The official teams will be announced on Wednesday, December 21st, 2006 on ESPN.
That in mind, I thought I'd put together my own Pro-Bowl squads.
AFC
Offense
QB - Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
RB - Edgerrin James, Indianapolis
FB - Lorenzo Neal, San Diego
WR - Chad Johnson, Cincinnati
WR - Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis
TE - Antonio Gates, San Diego
OT - Willie Roaf, Kansas City
OT - Willie Anderson, Cincinnati
OG - Alan Faneca, Pittsburgh
OG - Will Shields, Kansas City
OC - Jeff Saturday, Indianapolis
Defense
DE - Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis
DE - Kyle Vanden Bosch, Tennessee
DT - Marcus Stroud, Jacksonville
DT - Richard Seymour, New England
LB - Joey Porter, Pittsburgh
LB - Johnathan Vilma, NY Jets
LB - Cato June, Indianapolis
CB - Champ Bailey, Denver
CB - Deltha O'Neal, Cincinnati
FS - Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh
SS - John Lynch, Denver
Special Teams
K - Shayne Graham, Cincinnati
P - Shane Lechler, Oakland
KR - Jerome Mathis, Houston
PR - Adam Jones, Tennessee
ST - Larry Izzo, New England
NFC
Offense
QB - Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
RB - Shaun Alexander, Seattle
FB - Mack Strong, Seattle
WR - Steve Smith, Carolina
WR - Santana Moss, Washington
TE - Jeremy Shockey, NY Giants
OT - Walter Jones, Seattle
OT - Mark Tauscher, Green Bay
OG - Steve Hutchinson, Seattle
OG - Randy Thomas, Washington
OC - Todd McClure, Atlanta
Defense
DE - Osi Umenyiora, NY Giants
DE - Adewale Ogunleye, Chicago
DT - Rod Coleman, Atlanta
DT - Rocky Bernard, Seattle
LB - Brian Urlacher, Chicago
LB - Marcus Washington, Washington
LB - Lofa Tatupu, Seattle
CB - Nathan Vashar, Chicago
CB - Ronde Barber, Tampa Bay
FS - Darren Sharper, Minnesota
SS - Adrian Wilson, Arizona
Special Teams
K - Neil Rackers, Arizona
P - Chris Kluwe, Minnesota
KR - Koren Robinson, Minnesota
PR - Chad Morton, NY Giants
ST - David Tyree, NY Giants
Playoff Picture
The AFC
1. Indianapolis (13-1) Yes, they lost. Now comes word that Tony Dungy is going to rest his "key" players at some point during the matchup with the Seahawks on Christmas Eve. If that's the case, they likely won't play at all during the regular season finale against the Cardinals. It's Dungy's team, and he knows a lot more than I possibly could, but I can't see how sitting guys is going to help them in January.
2. Denver (11-3) While everyone is talking about the Colts, Patriots, Bengals, Steelers and Chargers (even though San Diego is no guarantee to make the post-season), the Broncos are the most overlooked team in the AFC. And that's how they like it.
3. Cincinnati (11-3) Congratulations to the Bengals, who won their 1st division title since the glory days of Sam Wyche.
4. New England (9-5) The Patriots clinched the AFC East on Saturday, and will host a playoff game. Pity the team that earns the #5-seed, which will likely be...
5. Jacksonville (10-4) The Jags narrowly beat the 49ers, at home, which doesn't bode well for Del Rio's crew. Last year, they lost to the Texans and that cost them a playoff spot. If they don't improve on offense, the trip to Foxborough will be their last game of the season.
6. Pittsburgh (9-5) The Steelers are putting it all together at the right time, and you know they're salivating at another shot at the Bengals.
I Hear You Knockin'
7. San Diego Chargers (9-5) Someone needs to explain why the Chargers belong in the "best team in the AFC" discussion. Sure, they beat the Indianapolis Colts yesterday, and they deserve a ton of credit for that, but isn't this the same team that got beat up at home the week before by the Miami Dolphins? "Elite" teams aren't this inconsistent.
8. Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) The Chiefs blew a golden opportunity in the Meadowlands the other night, and it probably cost them a Wild Card spot. It'll be interesting to see if Vermeil returns as Head Coach in '06, but it's time to be honest here: When has this team not underachieved under him?
The NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-2) Indianapolis may be resting some players next Saturday, but Seattle does not have that luxury. They need a win to clinch home-field advantage in the NFC, and they also need to keep feeding Darrell Jackson to get him back in game shape.
2. Chicago Bears (10-4) Do we dare ask when Rex Grossman goes down with another injury? With that defense, it probably doesn't matter who is playing QB.
3. New York Giants (10-4) They can clinch the division with a win this weekend against Washington. I'm still not sold on the Giants, as they're undisciplined, have an inexperienced QB and the benefit of an extra home game.
4. Carolina Panthers (10-4) The Panthers control their own destiny in the NFC South, and can knock the Cowboys out of the playoff picture with a win this weekend.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) Another team in the driver's seat. They can still claim the NFC South if they win out and get some help. But they should be more focused on eliminating the Falcons this weekend.
6. Washington Redskins (8-6) With the way they played yesterday, you've got to like their chances at making the playoffs. Unfortunately, they'll be without the services of Randy Thomas (broken leg) who was having a Pro-Bowl season (as noted above).
Save Room For Me?
7. Dallas Cowboys (8-6) They're in a tough spot right now, and they have only themselves to blame. They can't protect Bledsoe, which isn't a good sign when your next opponent is the Carolina Panthers.
8. Atlanta Falcons (8-6) The Falcons essentially face elimination next weekend when they travel to Tampa Bay.
9. Minnesota Vikings (8-6) Still on life support, but if yesterday was any indication, this Vikings team isn't capable of beating a decent opponent.
The Crystal Ball Says...
AFC (no change from last week)
1. Indianapolis
2. Denver
3. Cincinnati
4. New England
5. Jacksonville
6. Pittsburgh
NFC
1. Seattle
2. Carolina
3. Chicago
4. NY Giants
5. Tampa Bay
6. Washington
- Seattle beats the Colts "B" squad and the Packers to finish at 14-2.
- Carolina wins out to get the #2-seed.
- The Bears lose to the Packers on Christmas Day, but beat the Vikings to win the NFC North.
- The Giants lose to the Redskins, but rebound to win in Oakland to clinch the NFC East.
- The Bucs win out, securing the #5-seed and a trip to the Meadowlands.
- The Redskins win out, securing the #6-seed and an unenviable trip to Soldier Field.
- Dallas, Atlanta and Minnesota are d-u-n, done.
Handing Out Some Hardware
The time has come to start handing out hardware, even though I don't think you should hand them out until after the Super Bowl.
NFL Most Valuable Player - Shaun Alexander, Seattle. Sorry, but he's the NFL's leading rusher and scorer. Remove him from the Seahawks lineup, and the Seahawks wouldn't have won half of their current total.
NFL Coach of the Year - Lovie Smith, Chicago. I was on the fence about this one, but he's pushing all the right buttons, including pulling Kyle Orton last night for Rex Grossman, and getting immediate results.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year - I'm actually giving this one to LaDanian Tomlinson. He's got 1,300 yards rushing, nearly 50 receptions and has even thrown 3 TDs.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year - Brian Urlacher. He's the motor of the #1 defense in the NFL, and he's last person I'd want to meet in a dark alley.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year - Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay. As he's gone, so have the Buccaneers.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year - Lofa Tatupu, Seattle. He has solidified a defense that ranks 7th against the run, and has made some huge plays that have been crucial to the team's success.
NFL Comback Player of the Year - Steve Smith, Carolina. Played in only 1 game in 2004, Smith has rebounded to lead the NFL in receptions and receiving yards. He's 2nd in receiving TDs (1 behind Marvin Harrison) and is the most exciting players in the game when he has the football. Plus, his end zone celebrations are often hilarious.
That in mind, I thought I'd put together my own Pro-Bowl squads.
AFC
Offense
QB - Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
RB - Edgerrin James, Indianapolis
FB - Lorenzo Neal, San Diego
WR - Chad Johnson, Cincinnati
WR - Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis
TE - Antonio Gates, San Diego
OT - Willie Roaf, Kansas City
OT - Willie Anderson, Cincinnati
OG - Alan Faneca, Pittsburgh
OG - Will Shields, Kansas City
OC - Jeff Saturday, Indianapolis
Defense
DE - Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis
DE - Kyle Vanden Bosch, Tennessee
DT - Marcus Stroud, Jacksonville
DT - Richard Seymour, New England
LB - Joey Porter, Pittsburgh
LB - Johnathan Vilma, NY Jets
LB - Cato June, Indianapolis
CB - Champ Bailey, Denver
CB - Deltha O'Neal, Cincinnati
FS - Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh
SS - John Lynch, Denver
Special Teams
K - Shayne Graham, Cincinnati
P - Shane Lechler, Oakland
KR - Jerome Mathis, Houston
PR - Adam Jones, Tennessee
ST - Larry Izzo, New England
NFC
Offense
QB - Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
RB - Shaun Alexander, Seattle
FB - Mack Strong, Seattle
WR - Steve Smith, Carolina
WR - Santana Moss, Washington
TE - Jeremy Shockey, NY Giants
OT - Walter Jones, Seattle
OT - Mark Tauscher, Green Bay
OG - Steve Hutchinson, Seattle
OG - Randy Thomas, Washington
OC - Todd McClure, Atlanta
Defense
DE - Osi Umenyiora, NY Giants
DE - Adewale Ogunleye, Chicago
DT - Rod Coleman, Atlanta
DT - Rocky Bernard, Seattle
LB - Brian Urlacher, Chicago
LB - Marcus Washington, Washington
LB - Lofa Tatupu, Seattle
CB - Nathan Vashar, Chicago
CB - Ronde Barber, Tampa Bay
FS - Darren Sharper, Minnesota
SS - Adrian Wilson, Arizona
Special Teams
K - Neil Rackers, Arizona
P - Chris Kluwe, Minnesota
KR - Koren Robinson, Minnesota
PR - Chad Morton, NY Giants
ST - David Tyree, NY Giants
Playoff Picture
The AFC
1. Indianapolis (13-1) Yes, they lost. Now comes word that Tony Dungy is going to rest his "key" players at some point during the matchup with the Seahawks on Christmas Eve. If that's the case, they likely won't play at all during the regular season finale against the Cardinals. It's Dungy's team, and he knows a lot more than I possibly could, but I can't see how sitting guys is going to help them in January.
2. Denver (11-3) While everyone is talking about the Colts, Patriots, Bengals, Steelers and Chargers (even though San Diego is no guarantee to make the post-season), the Broncos are the most overlooked team in the AFC. And that's how they like it.
3. Cincinnati (11-3) Congratulations to the Bengals, who won their 1st division title since the glory days of Sam Wyche.
4. New England (9-5) The Patriots clinched the AFC East on Saturday, and will host a playoff game. Pity the team that earns the #5-seed, which will likely be...
5. Jacksonville (10-4) The Jags narrowly beat the 49ers, at home, which doesn't bode well for Del Rio's crew. Last year, they lost to the Texans and that cost them a playoff spot. If they don't improve on offense, the trip to Foxborough will be their last game of the season.
6. Pittsburgh (9-5) The Steelers are putting it all together at the right time, and you know they're salivating at another shot at the Bengals.
I Hear You Knockin'
7. San Diego Chargers (9-5) Someone needs to explain why the Chargers belong in the "best team in the AFC" discussion. Sure, they beat the Indianapolis Colts yesterday, and they deserve a ton of credit for that, but isn't this the same team that got beat up at home the week before by the Miami Dolphins? "Elite" teams aren't this inconsistent.
8. Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) The Chiefs blew a golden opportunity in the Meadowlands the other night, and it probably cost them a Wild Card spot. It'll be interesting to see if Vermeil returns as Head Coach in '06, but it's time to be honest here: When has this team not underachieved under him?
The NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-2) Indianapolis may be resting some players next Saturday, but Seattle does not have that luxury. They need a win to clinch home-field advantage in the NFC, and they also need to keep feeding Darrell Jackson to get him back in game shape.
2. Chicago Bears (10-4) Do we dare ask when Rex Grossman goes down with another injury? With that defense, it probably doesn't matter who is playing QB.
3. New York Giants (10-4) They can clinch the division with a win this weekend against Washington. I'm still not sold on the Giants, as they're undisciplined, have an inexperienced QB and the benefit of an extra home game.
4. Carolina Panthers (10-4) The Panthers control their own destiny in the NFC South, and can knock the Cowboys out of the playoff picture with a win this weekend.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) Another team in the driver's seat. They can still claim the NFC South if they win out and get some help. But they should be more focused on eliminating the Falcons this weekend.
6. Washington Redskins (8-6) With the way they played yesterday, you've got to like their chances at making the playoffs. Unfortunately, they'll be without the services of Randy Thomas (broken leg) who was having a Pro-Bowl season (as noted above).
Save Room For Me?
7. Dallas Cowboys (8-6) They're in a tough spot right now, and they have only themselves to blame. They can't protect Bledsoe, which isn't a good sign when your next opponent is the Carolina Panthers.
8. Atlanta Falcons (8-6) The Falcons essentially face elimination next weekend when they travel to Tampa Bay.
9. Minnesota Vikings (8-6) Still on life support, but if yesterday was any indication, this Vikings team isn't capable of beating a decent opponent.
The Crystal Ball Says...
AFC (no change from last week)
1. Indianapolis
2. Denver
3. Cincinnati
4. New England
5. Jacksonville
6. Pittsburgh
NFC
1. Seattle
2. Carolina
3. Chicago
4. NY Giants
5. Tampa Bay
6. Washington
- Seattle beats the Colts "B" squad and the Packers to finish at 14-2.
- Carolina wins out to get the #2-seed.
- The Bears lose to the Packers on Christmas Day, but beat the Vikings to win the NFC North.
- The Giants lose to the Redskins, but rebound to win in Oakland to clinch the NFC East.
- The Bucs win out, securing the #5-seed and a trip to the Meadowlands.
- The Redskins win out, securing the #6-seed and an unenviable trip to Soldier Field.
- Dallas, Atlanta and Minnesota are d-u-n, done.
Handing Out Some Hardware
The time has come to start handing out hardware, even though I don't think you should hand them out until after the Super Bowl.
NFL Most Valuable Player - Shaun Alexander, Seattle. Sorry, but he's the NFL's leading rusher and scorer. Remove him from the Seahawks lineup, and the Seahawks wouldn't have won half of their current total.
NFL Coach of the Year - Lovie Smith, Chicago. I was on the fence about this one, but he's pushing all the right buttons, including pulling Kyle Orton last night for Rex Grossman, and getting immediate results.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year - I'm actually giving this one to LaDanian Tomlinson. He's got 1,300 yards rushing, nearly 50 receptions and has even thrown 3 TDs.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year - Brian Urlacher. He's the motor of the #1 defense in the NFL, and he's last person I'd want to meet in a dark alley.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year - Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay. As he's gone, so have the Buccaneers.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year - Lofa Tatupu, Seattle. He has solidified a defense that ranks 7th against the run, and has made some huge plays that have been crucial to the team's success.
NFL Comback Player of the Year - Steve Smith, Carolina. Played in only 1 game in 2004, Smith has rebounded to lead the NFL in receptions and receiving yards. He's 2nd in receiving TDs (1 behind Marvin Harrison) and is the most exciting players in the game when he has the football. Plus, his end zone celebrations are often hilarious.
Thursday, December 15, 2005
NFL Week 15 - Mac's Picks
NFL Week 15 – Mac’s Picks
Last week: 5-10-1 (Reality is a bitch)
Overall: 116-88-4
Also, if you need a good laugh, I highly recommend checking out this video. You’ll never view Mike Ditka the same way again.
Tampa Bay at New England Despite what Belichick is saying about Brady’s leg (he’s questionable, which with Belichick could mean his leg is fine…or it’s falling off), the guy is going to play. If you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read the Sports Illustrated piece on their “Sportsman of the Year”. As impressive as Tom Brady is as a player, he exceeds that as a person. Pick: Patriots –4 ½
Kansas City at NY Giants With all the accolades that are bestowed upon Eli Manning, it’s nice when he has a game like he did against the Eagles (2 INTs in the 4th quarter) to remind us that this is his 1st full season as a starting QB. Pick: Chiefs +3
Denver at Buffalo After the egg the Broncos laid last week, I don’t expect them to play down to their competition two weeks in a row. And if you think Baltimore is bad, you haven’t seen the Buffalo Bills. Pick: Broncos –9
Arizona at Houston I had to laugh at the people suggesting that the Texans have been throwing games recently to get the #1 pick in the 2006 NFL Draft. You could’ve made that same accusation last season when the team didn’t fire Dom Capers, so why start now? Pick: Cardinals –1
Carolina at New Orleans I am deeply saddened that the Aaron Brooks Era in New Orleans is over. Not as much as the gambling community, which has begun panicking. Pick: Panthers –8
NY Jets at Miami Are any of you New England fans worried that if the Patriots lose their next two games, and the Dolphins win their next two games, that Dolphins-Patriots game on January 1st is going to be for the division, with the loser out of the playoffs? Didn’t think so. Pick: Dolphins –9
Philadelphia at St. Louis Ok, nobody cares about this game. Pick: Rams –3
Pittsburgh at Minnesota I’m guessing that Zygi Wilf isn’t going to follow through on his promise to discipline those charged in the “Love Boat” scandal from 2 months ago. Amazing how having a shot at the post-season will change one’s tune. Pick: Steelers –3
San Diego at Indianapolis If you’re into stats, you probably already know that the 5 Chargers losses have come by an average of just 2.8 points. Still, the Colts are doing some pretty special things, and Dungy is going to go for history. Pick: Colts –7 ½
Seattle at Tennessee Ok, I officially cannot say enough about Lofa Tatupu. After he was credited with half a sack on November 20th, Tatupu asked the Seahawks to contact the league office so that fellow rookie LB Leroy Hill could get full credit for the sack, since Hill fought through two blocks to get the sack, while Tatupu was just in the right spot. The league reviewed the play, agreed with Tatupu, and this week made the correction. The guy is a team player, and that attitude is the major difference between the Seahawks of 2004, and the Seahawks of 2005. Pick: Seahawks –7 (Plenty of room on the bandwagon, folks)
San Francisco at Jacksonville Remember when the 49ers were a dominant franchise? Neither do I. In fact, look what playing in San Francisco has done to Alex Smith’s throwing motion:
Check him out, he’s fabulous! Pick: Jacksonville –16
Cincinnati at Detroit It’s already Thursday, and I haven’t heard any guarantees out of Chad Johnson. I’m starting to get nervous. This leads me to the best joke I heard all week:
Q: What did one aardvark say to the other aardvark?
A: Fire Millen.
Pick: Bengals –8
Cleveland at Oakland The Marques Tuiasosopo Era officially lasted 24:22 and generated 10 points against the hapless Jets. Good going, Norv. Pick: Raiders –3
Dallas at Washington Why do people think the Dallas Cowboys are a “far superior” team than the Washington Redskins? Last time I checked, the Cowboys were 8-5 while Washington, was 7-6 and beat the Cowboys earlier this season on Monday Night Football. If you ask me, I think that Washington is keeping pace with the Cowboys. Pick: Redskins –2 ½
Atlanta at Chicago During the CBS pre-game show last Sunday, they had a feature on what Jerome Bettis goes through to get ready for a game. During the week, for example, he can barely walk. And then he goes for over 100 yards against the tough Bears defense. I mention this only because the Atlanta Falcons have the leagues best rushing offense, and two healthy running backs. Pick: Falcons +3
Green Bay at Baltimore “You know, Brett Favre is the best player in the history of the National Football League. Jim Brown was good, but Brett Favre…to me…it doesn’t get any better than that.” The final Monday Night Football game on ABC, with Al Michaels and John Madden in the booth, naturally involves Brett Favre. Vegas won’t even take odds on how many uncomfortable comments John Madden makes. Pick: Packers +4
(And while we’re on the subject of Brett Favre, the NFL announced that due to the broadcasting patterns on FOX, the Seahawks-Packers game on January 1st has been changed from a 4pm start to a 1pm start. This means that the national game FOX has at 4pm is going to be the Redskins-Eagles. So instead of showing what could be Brett Favre’s last game, against his old coach and the #1 team in the NFC, FOX wants to show the Redskins-Eagles, a game that probably won’t have anything to do with the NFL playoffs. I’m not surprised by this, since it’s the same network that employs Jillian Barberie.)
Monday, December 12, 2005
A Wild Week 14
Once again, one man's feeble attempt at handicapping the 2005 NFL Playoffs
AFC
1. Indianapolis (13-0) - With the win over the Jaguars, the Colts clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The only question in Indianapolis is whether or not to rest the starters to avoid injury, or to take a shot at football immortality. Whichever way Dungy goes, don't you just wish he'd keep playing them and take a run at it?
2. Denver (10-3) - It was far from pretty, but yesterday's win over the Ravens was huge for the Broncos, as they managed to stay ahead of the Bengals for the #2-seed and a 1st round playoff bye.
3. Cincinnati (10-3) - Like the Broncos, the Bengals won an ugly game yesterday. You don't get style points, though, and the fans in Cincinnati have suffered too long to worry about cosmetics.
4. New England (8-5) - Miami thwarted the Patriots attempt to clinch the division, but I think we'll all agree that's just a formality at this point. The Pats are playing very well, and are looking like a team that could do a heckuva lot of damage in January.
5. Jacksonville (9-4) - Re-signing David Garrard was one of the best off-season moves any team made this year. He's kept the offense going, and with that defense, they won't be an easy out in January. Oh, and this team's remaining schedule assures them of a spot in the tourney.
6. Pittsburgh (8-5) - Just when you're ready to count them out, the Steelers come up with a huge win against the Bears. They got some help yesterday, too, as both San Diego and Kansas City lost.
7. San Diego (8-5) - That 2-point loss to the Steelers is looming large right about now. If the Chargers finish on the outside, they'll point to that game, and yesterday's loss at home to the Dolphins, as a major reason why they're scheduling tee times instead of flights to Cincinnati or New England.
8. Kansas City (8-5) - No time to dwell on that loss yesterday, as they have a short week to prepare for the Giants on Saturday.
9. Miami (6-7) - The division title is still a possibility, albeit, a remote one. Either way, this team is much improved under Nick Saban.
Mac's Crystal Ball
1. Indianapolis
2. Cincinnati
3. Denver
4. New England
5. Jacksonville
6. Pittsburgh (easier road than SD or KC)
NFC
1. Seattle (11-2) - The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Seattle this year. WIth all the talk of Indianapolis resting starters, Seattle may be in the same position when the two teams are scheduled to meet on Christmas Eve. In what may be a Super Bowl preview, you'd love for them to go all out and give us a taste. It's not likely to happen, though.
2. Chicago (9-4) - Yesterday's loss confirmed that the Bears lack the ability to come from behind, and that their defense is human, after all.
3. NY Giants (9-4) - They've got a 1-game lead on the Cowboys, but if the inconsistencies on offense (penalties, dropped passes) aren't enough to caste doubt, the injuries to OTs Petitgout, McKenzie and MLB Antonio Pierce should. They beat the Eagles, but the Eagles beat the Giants up.
4. Tampa Bay (9-4) - Nothing is settled in the NFC South.
5. Carolina (9-4) - Again, nothing is settled in the NFC South. The Panthers are the #5-seed right now, but could be the #2-seed next week.
6. Dallas (8-5) - Huge win over the Chiefs, and with the Giants so banged up, the division isn't out of the Cowboys' reach.
7. Minnesota (8-5) - The Vikings are "making another run" at the post-season, and are playing so well, they've likely saved Mike Tice's job. Not sure if that's a good thing or not.
8. Atlanta (7-5) - The Falcons are major players in the playoff picture. With a win tonight, they'll pull to within a game of the NFC South title. The game next week (at Chicago) could have a huge impact on the entire NFC playoff picture.
Mac's Crystal Ball
1. Seattle
2. Carolina
3. Chicago
4. NY Giants
5. Dallas
6. Tampa Bay
AFC
1. Indianapolis (13-0) - With the win over the Jaguars, the Colts clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The only question in Indianapolis is whether or not to rest the starters to avoid injury, or to take a shot at football immortality. Whichever way Dungy goes, don't you just wish he'd keep playing them and take a run at it?
2. Denver (10-3) - It was far from pretty, but yesterday's win over the Ravens was huge for the Broncos, as they managed to stay ahead of the Bengals for the #2-seed and a 1st round playoff bye.
3. Cincinnati (10-3) - Like the Broncos, the Bengals won an ugly game yesterday. You don't get style points, though, and the fans in Cincinnati have suffered too long to worry about cosmetics.
4. New England (8-5) - Miami thwarted the Patriots attempt to clinch the division, but I think we'll all agree that's just a formality at this point. The Pats are playing very well, and are looking like a team that could do a heckuva lot of damage in January.
5. Jacksonville (9-4) - Re-signing David Garrard was one of the best off-season moves any team made this year. He's kept the offense going, and with that defense, they won't be an easy out in January. Oh, and this team's remaining schedule assures them of a spot in the tourney.
6. Pittsburgh (8-5) - Just when you're ready to count them out, the Steelers come up with a huge win against the Bears. They got some help yesterday, too, as both San Diego and Kansas City lost.
7. San Diego (8-5) - That 2-point loss to the Steelers is looming large right about now. If the Chargers finish on the outside, they'll point to that game, and yesterday's loss at home to the Dolphins, as a major reason why they're scheduling tee times instead of flights to Cincinnati or New England.
8. Kansas City (8-5) - No time to dwell on that loss yesterday, as they have a short week to prepare for the Giants on Saturday.
9. Miami (6-7) - The division title is still a possibility, albeit, a remote one. Either way, this team is much improved under Nick Saban.
Mac's Crystal Ball
1. Indianapolis
2. Cincinnati
3. Denver
4. New England
5. Jacksonville
6. Pittsburgh (easier road than SD or KC)
NFC
1. Seattle (11-2) - The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Seattle this year. WIth all the talk of Indianapolis resting starters, Seattle may be in the same position when the two teams are scheduled to meet on Christmas Eve. In what may be a Super Bowl preview, you'd love for them to go all out and give us a taste. It's not likely to happen, though.
2. Chicago (9-4) - Yesterday's loss confirmed that the Bears lack the ability to come from behind, and that their defense is human, after all.
3. NY Giants (9-4) - They've got a 1-game lead on the Cowboys, but if the inconsistencies on offense (penalties, dropped passes) aren't enough to caste doubt, the injuries to OTs Petitgout, McKenzie and MLB Antonio Pierce should. They beat the Eagles, but the Eagles beat the Giants up.
4. Tampa Bay (9-4) - Nothing is settled in the NFC South.
5. Carolina (9-4) - Again, nothing is settled in the NFC South. The Panthers are the #5-seed right now, but could be the #2-seed next week.
6. Dallas (8-5) - Huge win over the Chiefs, and with the Giants so banged up, the division isn't out of the Cowboys' reach.
7. Minnesota (8-5) - The Vikings are "making another run" at the post-season, and are playing so well, they've likely saved Mike Tice's job. Not sure if that's a good thing or not.
8. Atlanta (7-5) - The Falcons are major players in the playoff picture. With a win tonight, they'll pull to within a game of the NFC South title. The game next week (at Chicago) could have a huge impact on the entire NFC playoff picture.
Mac's Crystal Ball
1. Seattle
2. Carolina
3. Chicago
4. NY Giants
5. Dallas
6. Tampa Bay
Wednesday, December 07, 2005
NFL Week 14 Mac's Picks
NFL Week 14 – Mac’s Picks
Last week: 15-1. Strange, I know.
Overall: 111-78-3
Chicago at Pittsburgh The Chin is not happy. His team has lost 3 games in a row. His big, young QB appears to be constructed entirely of glass. The defense is surrendering yards and points like it’s a group of French Generals. Do you remember what I said about the Steelers in Week 1? Here’s a reminder:
“I’m not sold on the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, and I fully expect them to underachieve, i.e., miss the playoffs”
No matter how much I respect The Chin, when expectations are high in the Steel City, his teams usually come up short. Pick: Bears +6
Cleveland at Cincinnati At this point, whomever the Browns take in the 1st round of the 2006 NFL Draft should immediately be placed on IR. First you had Sgt. Winslow blowing out his knee riding his motorcycle, and now Braylon Edwards tears an ACL just as his rookie season was coming together. Should I even mention William Green going completely insane? Being selected by the Browns is the kiss of death.
And how about them Bengals? Yeah, I said they wouldn’t make the playoffs, but I’m on board with them now. Plus, the NFL Playoffs desperately need Chad Johnson. There’s nobody in the NFL as entertaining, or likeable, as #85. Pick: Bengals –11 ½
Houston at Tennessee How are the Colts 12-0? May I present exhibits A and B. Pick: Titans –6 ½
Indianapolis at Jacksonville At this point, if the Colts are only giving single digits, you have to take them. With no Byron Leftwich, and Fred Taylor’s groin/knee/ankle acting up again, there’s no incentive to take the Jags, who are reportedly taking the tarp off the 10,000 seats they typically don’t acknowledge having. How did Jacksonville get an NFL franchise, anyways? Pick: Colts –7 ½
New England at Buffalo After hearing Richard Seymour’s comments after last week’s game, I only have one question for the big fella: Um, have you seen Gisele Bundchen?
In all honesty, he’s got a point. You Patriots fans are a bit spoiled. I chalked up the laissez-faire (thank you, Steve Young!) attitude I experienced at Gillette last year to Game 3 of the ALCS played the night before (19-8 shellacking), but Seymour is there every week so perhaps his comments had been percolating for some time. Either way, it’s not a good idea to get on Murph or Sully’s bad side. They’ll boo you wicked hahd. Pick: Patriots –3
Oakland at NY Jets “Marques Tuiasosopo. Brooks Bollinger. Next on CBS!” Pick: Raiders -3
(Side note: Before every Seahawks home game, the team has a local celebrity or former Seahawk help raise the “12th Man” flag in the south end zone. At the game I went to it was former Seahawk DT Manu Tuiasosopo, father of Marques and Zach Tuiasosopo, who had great careers at the University of Washington. Ok, I just like typing Tuiasosopo.)
St. Louis at Minnesota How can you not root for the Vikings? Just imagine the party they’d throw if they somehow made the playoffs, or God forbid, won their division? Pick: Vikings –6 ½
Tampa Bay at Carolina Let’s hope that a few Buccaneer cheerleaders return the favor at a bar in Charlotte this weekend.
Putting on my analytical hat, I think that the Panthers are playing too well right now, and will begin to separate themselves in the NFC South. Pick: Panthers –5
NY Giants at Philadelphia I’ll admit it. Just the guys the Eagles have on IR would give half the teams in the NFL a good game. But with what they’ve got right now, they can’t beat anyone. Pick: Giants –9
San Francisco at Seattle In honor of the great Raymond Bourque, I give you the 77th consecutive time I’ve done the following…Pick: Seahawks –15 ½
(I hope you all enjoyed the Lofa Tatupu show on Monday night. The Seahawks PR department is starting the “Defensive Rookie of the Year” campaign for him, but after watching enough of him this year, I think he deserves to be in Honolulu, as well.)
Washington at Arizona This is the time of the season where the Cardinals start playing well, so they can hoodwink the suckers (Peter King) into predicting them to make the playoffs in 2006. Does it get any more predictable than this? Pick: Cardinals +3 ½
Baltimore at Denver It was refreshing to see the real Jake Plummer again, wasn’t it? I’m guessing Satan wants to renegotiate their deal. Pick: Broncos –14
Kansas City at Dallas The Chiefs are putting it together at the right time, and I think that they can make the playoffs, even with that tough schedule. Plus, it’s so easy to root against guys like Keyshawn Johnson, Jerry Jones and Mrs. Doubtfire. Pick: Chiefs +3
Miami at San Diego With the way the Chargers are playing, do you really think someone named “Sage” is going to light up the Bolts defense? Pick: Chargers –12 ½
Detroit at Green Bay On the bright side, the number of times Joe Theismann, Mike Patrick and Paul Maguire are involved in an NFL game is dwindling. The bad news is the same can be said about Brett Favre. Pick: Packers –5 ½
(Did anyone see that Lions fan being chased around the stands at Ford Field for holding up a “Fire Millen” sign? The team said that they don’t allow banners to be displayed, but they allowed fans to hold up signs that said “Come Aboard, Cap’n Smoot”. The Lions can’t even get that right!)
New Orleans at Atlanta Aaron Brooks has thrown his way into Dom Capers territory. In other words, avoid him at all costs. Pick: Falcons –10 ½
Tuesday, December 06, 2005
It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
Despite their 42-0 win last night over the Eagles, I'm sure much of the nation still has no idea what to make of the Seattle Seahawks. You can blame Seattle for that, too. Perhaps weary, bored or just plain sick and tired of talking about a widely perceived "lack of respect", the Seahawks did the nation a favor: They allowed you to get a good night's sleep last night.
If you went to bed at the half, when the score was already 35-0, you didn't miss too much. On the Eagles second play, LeRoy Hill blew up Ryan Moats, forcing a fumble which Andre Dyson scooped up and ran 25 yards with for the final points of the night.
Game over.
I fully expected the spin that columnists and NFL observers are already putting on last night's win. Philadelphia is not the same team they were a year ago. The poor Eagles are without Donovan McNabb, Tra Thomas, Hank Fraley and of course, there's the whole Terrell Owens fiasco to consider.
The extent to which these morons (yes, I said morons) will go to avoid giving credit where credit is most certainly due, is laughable. Everytime one of these goobers opens his/her mouth, the verbal diarrhea that spills forth makes a mockery of their profession, and the "news" organization that employs them.
And I want it to continue.
After all, what happened when you "experts":
Told the 2005 Seahawks that they can't beat the Rams? A: They swept the season series.
Told the 2005 Seahawks that they can't win on the road? A: They're 4-2 on the road
Told the 2005 Seahawks that they're "soft"? A:They beat the Cowboys, Giants and Falcons (3 playoff-caliber teams) in tight games.
Told the 2005 Seahawks they can't win on the East coast? A: They give you the most lopsided shutout in the history of Monday Night Football...in cold and snowy Philadelphia.
I've been saying it all year, and it bears repeating: "This is not the same old Seahawks". They just keep winning, and with each win, they move closer to never having to leave Seattle in the playoffs. You know, where the Seahawks are 19-4 since the start of the 2003 season?
The Kid's Are Alright
Last night, the world was introduced to Seahawks MLB Lofa Tatupu. 9 tackles, including one where he stuffed Brian Westbrook for a loss on 3rd and 1. He scored his 1st NFL TD on an INT return, and tipped a pass that was intercepted by Michael Boulware. Not a bad night, rook.
And how about LeRoy Hill? Here's a guy who didn't even dress in Week 1, has only started the last 5 weeks due to various injuries (DD Lewis, Jamie Sharper) and is 2nd among all NFL linebackers in sacks, with 6.5. He also forced the fumble that Andre Dyson returned for a TD in the 3rd quarter.
These guys can flat-out play, and I'm not even concerned with Tatupu earning "Defensive Rookie of the Year" honors, I think that guy should be in Honolulu after the season.
If you went to bed at the half, when the score was already 35-0, you didn't miss too much. On the Eagles second play, LeRoy Hill blew up Ryan Moats, forcing a fumble which Andre Dyson scooped up and ran 25 yards with for the final points of the night.
Game over.
I fully expected the spin that columnists and NFL observers are already putting on last night's win. Philadelphia is not the same team they were a year ago. The poor Eagles are without Donovan McNabb, Tra Thomas, Hank Fraley and of course, there's the whole Terrell Owens fiasco to consider.
The extent to which these morons (yes, I said morons) will go to avoid giving credit where credit is most certainly due, is laughable. Everytime one of these goobers opens his/her mouth, the verbal diarrhea that spills forth makes a mockery of their profession, and the "news" organization that employs them.
And I want it to continue.
After all, what happened when you "experts":
Told the 2005 Seahawks that they can't beat the Rams? A: They swept the season series.
Told the 2005 Seahawks that they can't win on the road? A: They're 4-2 on the road
Told the 2005 Seahawks that they're "soft"? A:They beat the Cowboys, Giants and Falcons (3 playoff-caliber teams) in tight games.
Told the 2005 Seahawks they can't win on the East coast? A: They give you the most lopsided shutout in the history of Monday Night Football...in cold and snowy Philadelphia.
I've been saying it all year, and it bears repeating: "This is not the same old Seahawks". They just keep winning, and with each win, they move closer to never having to leave Seattle in the playoffs. You know, where the Seahawks are 19-4 since the start of the 2003 season?
The Kid's Are Alright
Last night, the world was introduced to Seahawks MLB Lofa Tatupu. 9 tackles, including one where he stuffed Brian Westbrook for a loss on 3rd and 1. He scored his 1st NFL TD on an INT return, and tipped a pass that was intercepted by Michael Boulware. Not a bad night, rook.
And how about LeRoy Hill? Here's a guy who didn't even dress in Week 1, has only started the last 5 weeks due to various injuries (DD Lewis, Jamie Sharper) and is 2nd among all NFL linebackers in sacks, with 6.5. He also forced the fumble that Andre Dyson returned for a TD in the 3rd quarter.
These guys can flat-out play, and I'm not even concerned with Tatupu earning "Defensive Rookie of the Year" honors, I think that guy should be in Honolulu after the season.
Monday, December 05, 2005
The Thing About That
Since it has a limited shelf-life already, how about my 14-1 performance in Week 13? That was the first day I wished I had a gambling problem.
Handicapping the Playoff Races
THE AFC
1. Indianapolis - How crazy is it that this team can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs as early as next week (at Jacksonville)? I'm of the opinion that Tony Dungy should do whatever he wants to do with his team over the final 3 weeks. If he wants to rest his players, let him. He knows his team better than anyone else.
2. Denver - The schedule is pretty favorable down the stretch, with cupcake home games (Baltimore and Oakland) and a winnable road game (at Buffalo) before playing the Chargers on New Year's Eve.
3. Cincinnati - Now, this may come as a surprise, seeing how it was less than a month ago where I thought the Bengals would finish out of the playoffs this year. But, I think the Bengals wind up with a 1st round bye in the post-season. They've got Cleveland, Detroit and Buffalo on their schedule, and then play the Chiefs in a tough game at the end of the year.
4. New England - The Patriots aren't as good as they were the last 4 years, but does anyone want to come to New England to play this team in January? Probably not. It's not cosmetically appealing, but then again, it never really was in the first place. They'll just continue to win football games, get healthy and then knock one of the fine wild card teams (Jacksonville, San Diego or Kansas City) out of the playoffs.
5. Jacksonville - Has a very easy schedule down the stretch, and will likely face the Patriots on Wild Card Weekend (Jan 7-8). Without Byron Leftwich, however, the Jags aren't going anywhere. Garrard may be able to beat the Browns, 49ers, Titans and Texans, but neither of those teams are anywhere close to playoff-caliber.
6. San Diego - Has the inside track at the final Wild Card spot, and you'd be hard-pressed to find any team playing better right now. They dismantled the Raiders offense last night, which is a good sign that they're defense is starting to catch up with the offense. Before you start popping those corks on New Year's Eve, be sure to check out the Broncos-Chargers game on CBS.
7. Kansas City - Another team that seems to be hitting its stride at just the right time are the Chiefs. The next two weeks are crucial to their post-season hopes, as the league did them no favors by sending them to Dallas and New York (to face the Giants, not Jets. That would be a favor) in a 6-day span.
8. Pittsburgh - It's real simple. If they can keep Roethlisberger in one piece after the Bears game next week, they've got a chance. If they can't, you can stick a fork in them.
Mac's Crystal Ball:
1. Indianapolis
2. Cincinnati
3. Denver
4. New England
5. Jacksonville
6. San Diego
THE NFC
1. Seattle - I'll get more in depth with the Seahawks a little later on, but they've already clinched the NFC West, so they will host a home playoff game.
2. Chicago - Thanks to that defense, I don't think anyone wants to face the Bears in January. This team is drawing comparisons to the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, but if I'm Baltimore, I'm taking exception to that. Offensively, the Ravens had a bruising RB, a Hall-of-Fame TE and a a couple of fine WRs. Chicago has none of that.
3. Carolina - Yesterday, the Panthers stole the keys to the NFC South. With 3 more divisional games left, the question now is whether or not Atlanta or Tampa Bay can steal them back. The answer: Not likely.
4. New York Giants - Similar situation as Carolina. Beating the Cowboys put the G-men in the driver's seat. The one problem I have with the Giants is discipline. They commit a lot of penalties, miss field goals and drop a ton of passes. With a QB as inexperienced as Eli Manning, the lack of discipline in others is what could ultimately derail this season.
5. Tampa Bay - With back-to-back road games against Carolina and New England, Tampa Bay is looking at being 8-6 before playing the Falcons and Saints in the last two weeks.
6. Dallas - If Bill Parcels & Co. can get through these next 3 weeks, then they'll deserve to be in the playoffs. A tough home game against Kansas City is followed by dangerous road trips to Carolina and Washington. Don't think Joe Gibbs wouldn't love to end his good friend's season.
7. Atlanta - Losers of 3 of their last 4, the Falcons are beginning to unravel. Thanks to Michael Vick and Jim Mora, this group has proved to be a resilient bunch, albeit rather inconsistent.
8. Minnesota - Ever go to a party where there's a person no one invited just milling about? Well, that's the Minnesota Vikings. Left for dead a long time ago, the Vikings have climbed back into the playoff race thanks to an improbable 5-game winning streak after their 2-5 start. They've got some winnable games left (St. Louis, Baltimore), but some tough ones (Pittsburgh, Chicago) may end up dashing their hopes.
Mac's Crystal Ball
1. Seattle
2. Carolina
3. Chicago
4. New York
5. Dallas
6. Atlanta
The Thing About That
Not that their opinions matter, but I get a charge out of these sportswriters and talking heads that love to mention that the Seahawks "can't win on the East coast" as a reason for ranking them below Chicago and New York in their "power rankings".
While it's true that the Seahawks have struggled in 1pm EST games (7-13 under Mike Holmgren), does it really matter? With games left against San Francisco, Tennessee and Green Bay (7-29 combined), and a home game against the Indianapolis Colts' b-team, the Seahawks are likely going to end up with home-field advantage in the playoffs. That means they'll never have to leave Seattle to play a football game in January, which makes how they play on the East coast meaningless.
I don't normally believe that there's an "East Coast Bias", but how anyone can look at the undisciplined New York Giants and say they're the best team in the NFC is beyond me. A team that commits that many penalties and drops that many passes, and has already lost to the team with the best record in the conference, can't possibly be the better team. Maybe in the court of public opinion, but not on the field, or in the standings.
Handicapping the Playoff Races
THE AFC
1. Indianapolis - How crazy is it that this team can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs as early as next week (at Jacksonville)? I'm of the opinion that Tony Dungy should do whatever he wants to do with his team over the final 3 weeks. If he wants to rest his players, let him. He knows his team better than anyone else.
2. Denver - The schedule is pretty favorable down the stretch, with cupcake home games (Baltimore and Oakland) and a winnable road game (at Buffalo) before playing the Chargers on New Year's Eve.
3. Cincinnati - Now, this may come as a surprise, seeing how it was less than a month ago where I thought the Bengals would finish out of the playoffs this year. But, I think the Bengals wind up with a 1st round bye in the post-season. They've got Cleveland, Detroit and Buffalo on their schedule, and then play the Chiefs in a tough game at the end of the year.
4. New England - The Patriots aren't as good as they were the last 4 years, but does anyone want to come to New England to play this team in January? Probably not. It's not cosmetically appealing, but then again, it never really was in the first place. They'll just continue to win football games, get healthy and then knock one of the fine wild card teams (Jacksonville, San Diego or Kansas City) out of the playoffs.
5. Jacksonville - Has a very easy schedule down the stretch, and will likely face the Patriots on Wild Card Weekend (Jan 7-8). Without Byron Leftwich, however, the Jags aren't going anywhere. Garrard may be able to beat the Browns, 49ers, Titans and Texans, but neither of those teams are anywhere close to playoff-caliber.
6. San Diego - Has the inside track at the final Wild Card spot, and you'd be hard-pressed to find any team playing better right now. They dismantled the Raiders offense last night, which is a good sign that they're defense is starting to catch up with the offense. Before you start popping those corks on New Year's Eve, be sure to check out the Broncos-Chargers game on CBS.
7. Kansas City - Another team that seems to be hitting its stride at just the right time are the Chiefs. The next two weeks are crucial to their post-season hopes, as the league did them no favors by sending them to Dallas and New York (to face the Giants, not Jets. That would be a favor) in a 6-day span.
8. Pittsburgh - It's real simple. If they can keep Roethlisberger in one piece after the Bears game next week, they've got a chance. If they can't, you can stick a fork in them.
Mac's Crystal Ball:
1. Indianapolis
2. Cincinnati
3. Denver
4. New England
5. Jacksonville
6. San Diego
THE NFC
1. Seattle - I'll get more in depth with the Seahawks a little later on, but they've already clinched the NFC West, so they will host a home playoff game.
2. Chicago - Thanks to that defense, I don't think anyone wants to face the Bears in January. This team is drawing comparisons to the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, but if I'm Baltimore, I'm taking exception to that. Offensively, the Ravens had a bruising RB, a Hall-of-Fame TE and a a couple of fine WRs. Chicago has none of that.
3. Carolina - Yesterday, the Panthers stole the keys to the NFC South. With 3 more divisional games left, the question now is whether or not Atlanta or Tampa Bay can steal them back. The answer: Not likely.
4. New York Giants - Similar situation as Carolina. Beating the Cowboys put the G-men in the driver's seat. The one problem I have with the Giants is discipline. They commit a lot of penalties, miss field goals and drop a ton of passes. With a QB as inexperienced as Eli Manning, the lack of discipline in others is what could ultimately derail this season.
5. Tampa Bay - With back-to-back road games against Carolina and New England, Tampa Bay is looking at being 8-6 before playing the Falcons and Saints in the last two weeks.
6. Dallas - If Bill Parcels & Co. can get through these next 3 weeks, then they'll deserve to be in the playoffs. A tough home game against Kansas City is followed by dangerous road trips to Carolina and Washington. Don't think Joe Gibbs wouldn't love to end his good friend's season.
7. Atlanta - Losers of 3 of their last 4, the Falcons are beginning to unravel. Thanks to Michael Vick and Jim Mora, this group has proved to be a resilient bunch, albeit rather inconsistent.
8. Minnesota - Ever go to a party where there's a person no one invited just milling about? Well, that's the Minnesota Vikings. Left for dead a long time ago, the Vikings have climbed back into the playoff race thanks to an improbable 5-game winning streak after their 2-5 start. They've got some winnable games left (St. Louis, Baltimore), but some tough ones (Pittsburgh, Chicago) may end up dashing their hopes.
Mac's Crystal Ball
1. Seattle
2. Carolina
3. Chicago
4. New York
5. Dallas
6. Atlanta
The Thing About That
Not that their opinions matter, but I get a charge out of these sportswriters and talking heads that love to mention that the Seahawks "can't win on the East coast" as a reason for ranking them below Chicago and New York in their "power rankings".
While it's true that the Seahawks have struggled in 1pm EST games (7-13 under Mike Holmgren), does it really matter? With games left against San Francisco, Tennessee and Green Bay (7-29 combined), and a home game against the Indianapolis Colts' b-team, the Seahawks are likely going to end up with home-field advantage in the playoffs. That means they'll never have to leave Seattle to play a football game in January, which makes how they play on the East coast meaningless.
I don't normally believe that there's an "East Coast Bias", but how anyone can look at the undisciplined New York Giants and say they're the best team in the NFC is beyond me. A team that commits that many penalties and drops that many passes, and has already lost to the team with the best record in the conference, can't possibly be the better team. Maybe in the court of public opinion, but not on the field, or in the standings.
Thursday, December 01, 2005
NFL Week 13 - Mac's Picks
NFL Week 13 – Mac’s Picks
Last week: 9-6-1
Overall: 96-77-3
Atlanta at Carolina Some teams own opposing players. Some players own opposing teams. It’s just the way things go sometimes. While Tampa Bay almost always has an answer for Vick, Mr. Ron Mexico has never lost to the Carolina Panthers.
I’m sure the Panthers are real happy to be back in Carolina, after scoring a grand total of 16 points on the road the last two weeks. Pick: Panthers –3
Buffalo at Miami If I told you before the season that this game would go a long way towards determining 2nd place in the AFC East, what would your reaction have been? Miami is beginning to irritate me. One week they can look absolutely horrendous (losing to Cleveland, 22-0) and the next week be a completely different team (beating Oakland 33-21).
Buffalo is pretty easy to figure out. They’re 4-2 in Orchard Park, NY, and 0-5 elsewhere. Since this game is in Miami…Pick: Dolphins –4
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh With the way they’ve played the last weeks, would anyone be surprised to see the Pittsburgh Steelers enter Christmas Eve with a record of 7-7? Their offensive line is so banged up they can’t adequately protect an already injured Roethlisberger, and their next 3 games are against opponents who are playing very well at the moment (Cincinnati, Chicago and Minnesota). Pick: Bengals +3 ½
Dallas at NY Giants I’m certain that this game is going to go into overtime, and Jay Feely and Billy Cundiff are going to combine to miss about 8 field goals. Pick: Giants –3
(Final comment, for now, on the ‘Hawks-Giants game: Blame Jay Feely all you want, but when you drop 6 passes (4 by Burress, 2 by Shockey), commit 16 penalties (including 11 false starts) and miss as many tackles as the Giants missed, you shouldn’t expect to win.)
Green Bay at Chicago The only team in the NFC that I’m certain would give the Seahawks a hard time in January is the Chicago Bears. Pick: Bears –7
Houston at Baltimore If I lived in Houston I’d start production on a t-shirt that simply said “Capers Happens”. It’s basically the same thing, right? Pick: Texans +8 ½
(Why am I picking Houston? It’s simple. When both teams are atrocious, and one is giving more than a touchdown, you have to take the points.)
Jacksonville at Cleveland You won’t hear this much, but I’m a big fan of David Garrard, and I think he guides the Jags to the playoffs. Pick: Jaguars –3
Minnesota at Detroit Matt Millen and Mike Tice should co-author a book. I’ve already got the title: “How to be Completely Inadequate and Still Keep Your Job”. Between Millen, Mariucci and Tice, the one least deserving of being fired was Mariucci. Naturally, he was the first to go. Pick: Vikings –2
Tampa Bay at New Orleans Why are people still riding on the Buccaneer bandwagon? Since Griese got hurt, they’ve lost 3 of 5, including one to the San Francisco 49ers. Now they’ve got 3 road games (New Orleans, Carolina and New England) to deal with. How is this team possibly going to make the playoffs? Pick: Bucs –3 (hey, they’re playing the ‘Aints!)
Tennessee at Indianapolis This one could get real ugly in a hurry. Pick: Colts –15
Arizona at San Francisco Perhaps the saddest part of this game is somewhere Thom Brennaman and Tim Green are breaking down game tape in an attempt to make this game interesting to the 8 people that’ll actually be watching it. Pick: Cardinals –3
Washington at St. Louis This may surprise some people, but thanks to the Redskins recent 3-game losing skid, Washington and St. Louis have the same record (5-6) heading into this one. Despite that, the Redskins lack the internal turmoil that has plagued the Rams this season, so because of that (and that alone) I’m taking them this Sunday. Pick: Redskins –3
Denver at Kansas City Does any team have a tougher schedule remaining than the Chiefs? If you include the Patriots last week, the last 6 games the Chiefs play are against playoff-caliber teams. Pick: Chiefs +1 (This is a mild upset. Arrowhead is one tough place to play, and they have a decent run defense to stop Anderson/Bell)
NY Jets at New England If you’re a Patriot’s fan, you can pretty much discard last week’s game. You’re team is going to win it’s division and host a playoff game. By then, guys like Dillon, Givens and Matt Light will be back at 100%. With Belichick and Brady, you’ll always have a chance to win in January, and hey, how often is Brady going to throw 4 interceptions in a month, never mind one game? Pick: Patriots –10
Oakland at San Diego The Chargers are playing too well for me to take a team as inconsistent as the Raiders. Pick: Chargers –11
Seattle at Philadelphia Look out, Cal Ripken. For the 76th time in a row, I’m taking the Seahawks. Pick: Seahawks –4
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