Since the playoff teams are pretty much set, here's a look at what to expect in January.
AFC
1. Indianapolis (13-2)
2. Denver (12-3)
3. Cincinnati (11-4)
4. New England (10-5)
5. Jacksonville (11-4)
6. Pittsburgh (10-5)
7. Kansas City (9-6)
Kansas City needs nothing short of a miracle to make the playoffs. In addition to needing a win and a Steelers loss, the Chiefs also need a Chargers loss on Saturday to have a shot at the playoffs. With Denver resting some key players for the playoffs, that's not likely to happen.
New England could move up into the #3 spot with a win over the Dolphins and a loss by the Bengals in KC. I'd actually argue that this is exactly what New England fans shouldn't want. Drawing Jacksonville at home is much better for the Pats than getting the red-hot Steelers at this point.
NFC
1. Seattle (13-2)
2. Chicago (11-4)
3. Tampa Bay (10-5)
4. NY Giants (10-5)
5. Carolina (10-5)
6. Washington (9-6)
7. Dallas (9-6)
The top two slots are all set, but we could see a fair amount of shuffling among the other teams. In order:
Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South (and #3 seed) with a win over New Orleans on Sunday OR Carolina loss OR Tampa Bay tie + Carolina tie; Tampa Bay will clinch a playoff spot with a win/tie OR Dallas loss/tie OR Washington loss/tie OR NYG win/tie.
NY Giants can clinch the NFC East with a win over Oakland on Saturday night. They've already clinched a playoff spot.
Carolina can clinch the NFC South with a win over Atlanta AND a Tampa Bay loss; Carolina can clinch a playoff spot with a win/tie OR Dallas loss/tie OR Washington loss/tie.
Washington can clinch the NFC East with a win over Philadelphia AND a NY Giants loss; Washington can clinch a playoff spot with a win OR Dallas loss OR a Washington and Dallas tie.
Dallas can clinch a playoff spot with a win + Washington loss/tie OR Dallas win + Carolina loss OR Dallas win + Tampa Bay loss + NYG loss OR Dallas tie + Washington loss.
It would take a really bizarre set of circumstances for the Cowboys to get in, so I think we can safely assume that they won't be making the playoffs this year.
Mac's Crystall Ball Look at the Brackets
AFC
1. Indianapolis
2. Denver
Wild Card Weekend
#6 Pittsburgh at #3 Cincinnati
#5 Jacksonville at #4 New England
NFC
1. Seattle
2. Chicago
Wild Card Weekend
#6 Washington at #3 Tampa Bay
#5 Carolina at #4 NY Giants
This is about what you all had at the beginning of the year, isn't it? I just took a glance at my pre-season predictions, and all I can is "Whoops!". Put it this way, Chicago and Denver have 1st round byes, and I had both of them finishing last in their division. Still, I don't think it's as bad as Tom Jackson stating before the season that the first QB to be benched this year will be Matt Hasselbeck, who is the only legitimate QB in NFC going to the Pro-Bowl.
But I digress. Ok, so now that we have our playoff teams, what's the scoop?
AFC
Indianapolis Colts - You'd have to do some serious digging to find some flies on this team. Easily, they're the most talented team in the NFL. They've got a high-powered offense and finally found the right parts on the defensive side of the ball to give Tony Dungy the balance that he's been looking for, both in Tampa and Indianapolis. As we head into January, just about every tangible element points to the Colts to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XL. Even with the recent tragedy (Dungy's son passing), the Colts are still, on paper, the best team in the NFL.
This does not mean that they can expect to coast through the playoffs. San Diego provided the blueprint for beating the Colts, and even with the corrections that Indy most definitely will make, that they lost at home to a good team gives the rest of the pack hope.
Denver Broncos - Has any team that earned a 1st round bye received less publicity than the 2005 Denver Broncos? They have a great running game and Jake Plummer has been playing out of his mind this year. In fact, Denver has the 5th-ranked offense in the NFL, yet no Bronco player on that side of the ball made the Pro-Bowl. What does that tell you about the coaching and scheme that they've got?
The key to the Broncos defense is the linebackers, who are collectively the best group the NFL has to offer. They spearhead the #3 rush defense in the NFL. The secondary features 2 Pro-Bowlers (John Lynch, Champ Bailey), despite ranking 29th in the NFL against the pass. The rookies at CB (Darrent Williams, Dominique Foxworth) could be picked apart by QBs like Manning, Brady and Palmer.
Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals have an explosive offense, capable of grinding games out behind the running of Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry, or they could open things up and throw downfield to Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmandzadeh and Tab Perry. Carson Palmer has blossomed into a Pro-Bowl/MVP-type of QB.
The strength of the Bengals is their ability to create turnovers. Led by Pro-Bowl CB Deltha O'Neal, Cincinnati is an AFC-best +25 in turnover ratio (including 31 interceptions). It is perceived that the best way to beat the Bengals is to run right at them, so a team like Pittsburgh could upset them in the Wild Card game.
New England Patriots - The team nobody wants to face in the playoffs is peaking at just the right time. Offensively, they've got healthy in key areas (WR, RB) and Tom Brady gets my vote for MVP. The weakness, or should I say the unknown entity, on the Patriots is the offfensive line, which is playing without Dan Koppen and Matt Light.
Defensively, I'm still of the opinion that their recent success has more to do with the (lack of) offensive talent they've been facing. Since they've seemingly "turned it around", the Patriots have faced one good offensive team, Kansas City, and they gave up 420 yards of total offense in that loss.
Still, who is going to bet against Belichick, Brady, Bruschi and the boys in January?
Jacksonville Jaguars - The reward for likely finishing 12-4 is a trip to Foxboro in early January? Offensively, the Jaguars won't scare anyone. They've got a steady running game with Fred Taylor and Greg Jones, and that is important to have in the playoffs. Without QB Byron Leftwich, the Jags will need to rely on the ground game. Leftwich's replacement, David Garrard, gives them more mobility and perhaps more play-making ability at the position, but it really limits what the talented WRs (Jimmy Smith, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford) are capable of doing.
The strength of the Jaguars is the defense, primarily up the middle. They've got two monsters in the middle of the line (Marcus Stroud, John Henderson) and a physical group of linebackers. The weakness is the secondary, so if you can give your QB enough time, he could have a field day against Rashean Mathis & Co.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Again, another playoff-tested team hitting it's stride at the right time. You do have to quantify that a bit, since the Steelers have been racking up wins against inferior competition lately, but what the Steelers do best (run the ball, stop the run) will make them tough to beat in the post-season.
NFC
Seattle Seahawks - Let's not pull any punches here: The Seahawks are the best team in the NFC, and as long as teams have to travel to the Emerald City, they're the prohibitive favorite.
Offensively, the Seahawks are ranked #1 in both yardage (378.0 pg) and scoring (29.0 pts per game). They have the best offensive line in the NFL, the best RB in the NFL, a Pro-Bowl FB, the best QB in the NFC and they've got the most depth at the WR/TE position. Playing at home, this team is going to score points, and they've shown that it doesn't really matter who is playing against them.
Defensively, the Seahawks rank a surprising 15th in the NFL in total defense. Even more surprising, is that they're ranked 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, which is the more accurate measure of a team's defense. After all, keeping the other team off the scoreboard is all that matters, right?
I do not see anyone going into Seattle and beating the Seahawks. They were 8-0 at home for the 2nd time in 3 seasons. I can understand the hestitation many have towards the Seahawks. After all, it's been over 20 years since they've won a playoff game. But, as they've done all season long, they'll exorcize that demon in due time.
Chicago Bears - It's no real secret that the Bears arguably have the league's best defense. Coupled with playing at home (for at least 1 game), that could spell trouble for the rest of the conference.
Offensively, the Bears are not an impressive bunch. They've gotten an incredible performance this year out of Thomas Jones, and they've recently resurrected the offense by replacing QB Kyle Orton with Rex Grossman, but this is not an offense that is going to score 20+ points a game in the post-season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Another team that lets its defense do the talking for them, the Bucs have quite a few things going in their favor. Not only are they solid defensively, but they protect the football on offense by keeping it on the ground and not allowing QB Chris Simms, who is developing nicely, to make too many mistakes with it.
Playoff-wise, this team is 3 years removed from winning a Super Bowl, so much of the roster knows exactly what it takes to get it done. The same can be said for Jon Gruden, so it's possible that "Chucky" could make an appearance in the Motor City this February.
New York Giants - Despite the recent additions of WR Plaxico Burress and QB Eli Manning, the offense still runs through Tiki Barber, who has enjoyed a resurgence after turning 30, the age in which a lot of RBs begin to wither. Truth is, the inconsistent play of Manning, Burress, Shockey and the offensive line, is part of the reason why this team will only go as far as Tiki takes them.
Defensively, the Giants have the best pair of pass-rushers in the NFL. Michael Strahan has slimmed down without losing an ounce of strength and Osi Umenyiora has gone from being an known guy with an unpronouncable name to the 2006 Pro-Bowl. However, there are question marks on the back end of it. The secondary isn't very talented and the linebacking corps has taken so many hits, they've added 2 street free agents in the last two weeks.
The Giants will be tough to beat in the Meadowlands, but I don't think this group has the maturity and discipline it takes to win on the road. Between the dropped passes, false starts and giving up on plays/games, the Giants don't appear ready to go deep into the NFC playoffs.
Carolina Panthers - Like the Bucs, the Panthers have some Super Bowl run experience to fall back on. John Fox is as underrated a coach you can find in the NFL, as well. He'll have this team ready to play in January, provided they get in, first!
Offensively, the Panthers are still a team that uses the run to set up the pass. With Stephen Davis out of the mix, the team has to lean heavily on DeShaun Foster, which has yieled mixed results at best. The Panthers do have one of the NFL's best WRs in Steve Smith, and the complimentary WRs (Ricky Proehl, Keary Colbert) have excellent hands.
This is another team that is strong defensively. Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker can make life miserable for opposing QBs, often forcing bad throws which the opportunistic secondary (Ken Lucas, Chris Gamble, Mike Minter) turns into turnovers.
Washington Redskins - The "power running game" is alive and well in the Nation's capital. With Clinton Portis in the backfield, the Redskins are content to give the ball to him 25-30 times a game to wear a defense down, and then use the play-action to rollout Mark Brunell to hit the smallish Redskins WRs. Plus, opposing defenses have to account for TE/H-Back Chris Cooley who has 7 TD receptions this year.
Gregg Williams runs a highly physical defense. They're stingy against both the run and pass (7th in the NFL in total defense) and while they don't have a true pass-rusher, they blitz effectively, sending anyone from anywhere.
Dallas Cowboys - Hahaha...
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